Ibanez to Phillies

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=5011:date=Dec 15 2008, 11:02 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 15 2008, 11:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5010:date=Dec 15 2008, 10:56 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 15 2008, 10:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->KB, I promise never to insinuate you've never actually watched a baseball game if you promise to never make another post about Adam Dunn again.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Rube, <i>someone</i> has to defend the guy. He's a pretty good ballplayer, according to many.

However, if <i>you</i> were the only guy on the site allowed to talk about Dunn, everyone would be convinced that he spends his entire existence striking out with the bases loaded, fielding fly balls off his cranium, and weakly grounding into triple plays.

Taint so.
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dunn is a shitty player according to many as well. walks? yep. solo home runs? yep. anything else? nope.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=5035:date=Dec 16 2008, 07:40 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Dec 16 2008, 07:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I've been teetering on the edge of KB's side of the argument about Dunn for a couple of years. I just don't have the energy (or care) to defend Dunn like KB has. Right or wrong, sabermatricians think RBI, AVG, BARISP are very overrated stats. There are studies that support the idea that there is no such thing as a clutch hitter. They think that getting on base and hitting with thump are the single most important traits a ball player can have. Wins and losses seem to support that theory.

Adam Dunn is a sabermatrician's wet dream. He does all the things they deem to be important. I really do think he would be a fantastic Cub if used correctly (bats near the top, not in the middle of the order). .

Living in Louisville I get to see a lot of the Reds. Dunn is absolutely painful to watch when his at-bat matters. He is routinely shut down by good pitching. He often looks clueless, the same way Soriano does. I can not fathom seeing another Soriano type player on the team. Dunn routinely leads the NL in strikeouts and the Reds fans always expected the worst when he came up in a clutch situation. For my own sanity I hope he never becomes a Cub.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And that, my friends, is why numbers sometimes lie.

[Fella]

I think the biggest problem with Dunn is that he is SO bad at so many things. He hits homeruns well and takes a lot of walks, but that's the end of everything he does even decently. He is among the worst in all of baseball at nearly everything else. Terrible contact hitter, horrid with the glove, dumb as a rock on the basepaths, terrible with RISP. His batting average also ranked 139th out of 147 hitters who qualified for the batting title.

Even if he was just average at everything else I think he would be a heck of a player with his power and patience, but his complete incompetence at everything else is what makes so many people critics of him.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=5078:date=Dec 16 2008, 10:46 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Dec 16 2008, 10:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think the biggest problem with Dunn is that he is SO bad at so many things. He hits homeruns well and takes a lot of walks, but that's the end of everything he does even decently. He is among the worst in all of baseball at nearly everything else. Terrible contact hitter, horrid with the glove, dumb as a rock on the basepaths, terrible with RISP. His batting average also ranked 139th out of 147 hitters who qualified for the batting title.

Even if he was just average at everything else I think he would be a heck of a player with his power and patience, but his complete incompetence at everything else is what makes so many people critics of him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

plus he strikes out at a historical clip.

but he can walk! god bless him he can walk! one of the greatest walkers of all time! can't hit a lick but he sure can walk!

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=5078:date=Dec 16 2008, 10:46 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Dec 16 2008, 10:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think the biggest problem with Dunn is that he is SO bad at so many things. He hits homeruns well and takes a lot of walks, but that's the end of everything he does even decently. He is among the worst in all of baseball at nearly everything else. Terrible contact hitter, horrid with the glove, dumb as a rock on the basepaths, terrible with RISP. His batting average also ranked 139th out of 147 hitters who qualified for the batting title.

Even if he was just average at everything else I think he would be a heck of a player with his power and patience, but his complete incompetence at everything else is what makes so many people critics of him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That is by far the best argument I've read here so far for/against Dunn.

[leonardsipes]

Adam Dunn is an example of a failure of stat analysis. The analysis is wrong, because stat people treat baseball events as if they are random (because of: 1) law of large numbers and 2) events do occur within the range of normal distribution). To them the math (OBP is the most important) trumps what they see when the watch the game.

When you watch the games, you see that how opposing teams pitch Dunn is not random. If the run on base is crucial, they try to pitch so he can't hit the ball (BB or KO). Having him on base does not matter, and if 1b was open might even help them (that will make your calculator explode). If the benefit of an out is greater than the cost of him getting a hit (even a HR) they pitch to contact (one of the more difficult tasks in pitching).


All the things that make baseball, baseball, don't show up in the numbers. No matter how many times a stat head sees the other team walk Dunn and still get out of the inning, they will say it will all even out in then end. All runs are the same, all OBP is the same and putting Dunn on base increases the expected runs for Dunn's team.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=5088:date=Dec 16 2008, 11:28 AM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Dec 16 2008, 11:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Adam Dunn is an example of a failure of stat analysis. The analysis is wrong, because stat people treat baseball events as if they are random (because of: 1) law of large numbers and 2) events do occur within the range of normal distribution). To them the math (OBP is the most important) trumps what they see when the watch the game.

When you watch the games, you see that how opposing teams pitch Dunn is not random. If the run on base is crucial, they try to pitch so he can't hit the ball (BB or KO). Having him on base does not matter, and if 1b was open might even help them (that will make your calculator explode). If the benefit of an out is greater than the cost of him getting a hit (even a HR) they pitch to contact (one of the more difficult tasks in pitching).


All the things that make baseball, baseball, don't show up in the numbers. No matter how many times a stat head sees the other team walk Dunn and still get out of the inning, they will say it will all even out in then end. All runs are the same, all OBP is the same and putting Dunn on base increases the expected runs for Dunn's team.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

bingo.

babe ruth, ted williams, and post steroid barry bonds would hit .360 AND walk 140 times every year. that means that when they weren't being walked, they were still getting on base. dunn, if he isn't walking, is more than likely striking out or hitting a solo home run. thats why he sucks. he can't hit.

i'm not sure my point has anything to with sipes point, but i like sipes point nevertheless.

[Butcher]

Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=5111:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

ramirez hits doubles, singles, sac flies and is starting to take walks. i'd take remirez over dunn any day of the week.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=5111:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But Aramis hits more doubles (303 vs 201) and other extra base hits and overall hits better in the clutch (.295/.370/.541 vs .225/.416/.474) and at least holds his own at 3B. Yes, Dunn needs to be in the AL.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=5117:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:03 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Dec 16 2008, 01:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5111:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

ramirez hits doubles, singles, sac flies and is starting to take walks. i'd take remirez over dunn any day of the week.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'd take Ramirez over Dunn as well. I'm just pointing out that other power hitters also hit their share of solo home runs.

I think Dunn tends to get overrated by OBP/OPS worshippers, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have value. Move him to the AL, don't let him field, and he's a valuable player.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=5118:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5111:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But Aramis hits more doubles (303 vs 201) and other extra base hits and overall hits better in the clutch (.295/.370/.541 vs .225/.416/.474) and at least holds his own at 3B. Yes, Dunn needs to be in the AL.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


and dunn strikes out way way more than ramirez.

[wcplummer]

<!--quoteo(post=5118:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5111:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But Aramis hits more doubles (303 vs 201) and other extra base hits and overall hits better in the clutch (.295/.370/.541 vs .225/.416/.474) and at least holds his own at 3B. Yes, Dunn needs to be in the AL.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I used to hate the DH but anymore I start to think that it wouldn't be the end of the world if the NL started using it. I guess I don't care other than both leagues should do the same thing.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=5124:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:08 PM:name=wcplummer)-->QUOTE (wcplummer @ Dec 16 2008, 01:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5118:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5111:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But Aramis hits more doubles (303 vs 201) and other extra base hits and overall hits better in the clutch (.295/.370/.541 vs .225/.416/.474) and at least holds his own at 3B. Yes, Dunn needs to be in the AL.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I used to hate the DH but anymore I start to think that it wouldn't be the end of the world if the NL started using it. I guess I don't care other than both leagues should do the same thing.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->



i hate hate hate the dh. hate it. fucking hate it.

[rok]

I think the DH is the worst thing to ever happen to MLB. That and expansion.