Ibanez to Phillies

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=5126:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:10 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 16 2008, 01:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think the DH is the worst thing to ever happen to MLB. That and expansion.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


we've been on the same page all day, my diminutive buddy.

[wcplummer]

<!--quoteo(post=5125:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:09 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Dec 16 2008, 01:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5124:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:08 PM:name=wcplummer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (wcplummer @ Dec 16 2008, 01:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5118:date=Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Dec 16 2008, 01:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5111:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 12:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dunn has hit 278 homers in his career. 121 of them have come with men on base.

Aramis has hit 249 homers in his career. 122 of them have come with men on base.

I'm not sure what my point was going to be other than Dunn occasionally hits home runs that aren't of the solo variety. Yes -- he hits more solo homers than most batters. He also hits more home runs, period, than most batters.

Dunn is valuable. As a DH.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But Aramis hits more doubles (303 vs 201) and other extra base hits and overall hits better in the clutch (.295/.370/.541 vs .225/.416/.474) and at least holds his own at 3B. Yes, Dunn needs to be in the AL.
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I used to hate the DH but anymore I start to think that it wouldn't be the end of the world if the NL started using it. I guess I don't care other than both leagues should do the same thing.
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i hate hate hate the dh. hate it. fucking hate it.
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The AL has such a big advantage since they can go after sluggers that don't need a position. Then if they are lucky enough to make the WS just find a spot for a game or two.

[SandbergMVP1984]

The DH sucks. You might as well have a player hit for shortstops too since they are notoriously weak hitters.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=5104:date=Dec 16 2008, 12:47 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Dec 16 2008, 12:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5088:date=Dec 16 2008, 11:28 AM:name=leonardsipes)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Dec 16 2008, 11:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Adam Dunn is an example of a failure of stat analysis. The analysis is wrong, because stat people treat baseball events as if they are random (because of: 1) law of large numbers and 2) events do occur within the range of normal distribution). To them the math (OBP is the most important) trumps what they see when the watch the game.

When you watch the games, you see that how opposing teams pitch Dunn is not random. If the run on base is crucial, they try to pitch so he can't hit the ball (BB or KO). Having him on base does not matter, and if 1b was open might even help them (that will make your calculator explode). If the benefit of an out is greater than the cost of him getting a hit (even a HR) they pitch to contact (one of the more difficult tasks in pitching).


All the things that make baseball, baseball, don't show up in the numbers. No matter how many times a stat head sees the other team walk Dunn and still get out of the inning, they will say it will all even out in then end. All runs are the same, all OBP is the same and putting Dunn on base increases the expected runs for Dunn's team.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

bingo.

babe ruth, ted williams, and post steroid barry bonds would hit .360 AND walk 140 times every year. that means that when they weren't being walked, they were still getting on base. dunn, if he isn't walking, is more than likely striking out or hitting a solo home run. thats why he sucks. he can't hit.

i'm not sure my point has anything to with sipes point, but i like sipes point nevertheless.
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So we've established that Dunn isn't as good as possibly the three best hitters of all time? OK, I guess I can agree with that.

You guys are insane. To whatever degree that the stat guys overrate Dunn because he walks, you guys are going the exact opposite way because he strikes out too much. Look, a guy who has a .380 career OPB is FUCKING VALUABLE. A guy who has a .518 career slugging percentage IS FUCKING VALUABLE. A guy who hits 40 home runs a year IS FUCKING VALUABLE.

Yes he's not perfect, yes he can't field, yes he is not a line drive machine, but you guys continually put across the baffling argument that he can't hit AND teams pitch around him. So according to you, he gets NO credit for walking and NO credit for hitting home runs, even though he is one of the most prolific players in baseball on both counts. And those are good things to be good at when you want to score runs. The only things that suddenly matter are his average with runners in scoring position, and strikeouts.

and for fuck's sake, give up on the strikeouts. Yes, he strikes out a lot, and yes, he will strand guys at third because of that. Do you realize that Aramis has grounded into nearly 3 times as many double plays as Dunn has? That's 2 outs for the price of one. You don't think THAT costs as many runs as striking out with a man on third with less than 2 outs does? Strikeouts are a weakness, but they don't completely invalidate 40 home run power.

Dunn is a valuable player who has distinct weaknesses. I'm not sure I could handle him and Soriano in the same outfield and the same lineup, but for God's sake, while he is not a super star, that certainly doesn't mean he "sucks". He's beat up on the Cubs enough for me to know he can't completely suck.

[Butcher]

BT has proven time and time again that he's a very smart man.

Except when it comes the The Prestige.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=5175:date=Dec 16 2008, 05:02 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Dec 16 2008, 05:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The only things that suddenly matter are his average with runners in scoring position, and strikeouts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

If we were to somehow sign Adam Dunn, he's most likely going to split up Lee and Ramirez and I would assume that Lee moves to the 2 hole while Dunn occupies the 3.

As the number 3 hitter last year, Lee had 180 plate appearances with RISP. I'm going to assume that Dunn would get about the same amount of opportunities in that same situation. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT AN INSIGNIFICANT STAT HERE! That's a hell of a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.

To have a guy that doesn't historically hit well in that situation, I'm not too thrilled. Yes, he will get on base, but why not put Theriot at the three spot if all you want from your three hitter is to walk? I mean, Theriot had a higher OBP last year then Dunn's career average, if we just want to make sure to get our 3 hitter on, I don't see any reason Theriot can't bat there and save the 10s of millions of dollars that Dunn will cost per season.



<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->and for fuck's sake, give up on the strikeouts. Yes, he strikes out a lot, and yes, he will strand guys at third because of that. Do you realize that Aramis has grounded into nearly 3 times as many double plays as Dunn has? That's 2 outs for the price of one. You don't think THAT costs as many runs as striking out with a man on third with less than 2 outs does?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

You're basically making two different arguments here and trying to mash them together.

1.) Strikeouts aren't that bad.

I have to disagree with this one. You don't give yourself any opportunity if you strike out. If you're swinging for contact, you can bloop a single, hit through a hole in the infield, put pressure on the defense, and heck... you can even foul it off and maybe get a good pitch to hit next time.

2.) Walking eliminates the opportunity for a double play.

I agree with that. If you get on base without putting the ball in play, there's no chance of a double play. However, how often does that come into play? Judging by your comments about RISP situations, I feel like you think RISP doesn't happen often enough to make a significant difference. However, Lee last year came close to breaking the record for GIDP with 27 compared to his 48 hits with runners in scoring position.


<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Strikeouts are a weakness, but they don't completely invalidate 40 home run power.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I can agree with that.



<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Dunn is a valuable player who has distinct weaknesses. I'm not sure I could handle him and Soriano in the same outfield and the same lineup, but for God's sake, while he is not a super star, that certainly doesn't mean he "sucks". He's beat up on the Cubs enough for me to know he can't completely suck.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I agree with all of this. I just don't see too many people that are saying he sucks.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->If we were to somehow sign Adam Dunn, he's most likely going to split up Lee and Ramirez<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What makes you believe that? Because he's a lefty? Did Lou plop Edmonds in between Lee and Ramirez? Sorry, but if we landed Dunn, he'd most likely be hitting 5th or 6th.

However, based on his career, splits, his best spot seems to be 2nd.

.277/.389/.554 in almost 500 plate appearances.

[CFOrfan]

I think this conversation about Dunn/Ibanez is about 8 pages too long.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=5213:date=Dec 16 2008, 06:28 PM:name=CFOrfan)-->QUOTE (CFOrfan @ Dec 16 2008, 06:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think this conversation about Dunn/Ibanez is about 8 pages too long.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Or, you should have stopped reading it 8 pages ago. [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif[/img]

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->1.) Strikeouts aren't that bad.

I have to disagree with this one. You don't give yourself any opportunity if you strike out. If you're swinging for contact, you can bloop a single, hit through a hole in the infield, put pressure on the defense, and heck... you can even foul it off and maybe get a good pitch to hit next time.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Bingo. I hate strikeout hitters. Put the motherfucking ball in play, that was as big of a problem as anything the previous 2 Octobers. Just hit a lazy fucking flyball to right field to get a run in. People really believe an extra walk or two from Adam Dunn is going to keep us playing in October? It's situational hitting.

[BT]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->As the number 3 hitter last year, Lee had 180 plate appearances with RISP. I'm going to assume that Dunn would get about the same amount of opportunities in that same situation. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT AN INSIGNIFICANT STAT HERE! That's a hell of a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Those are a LOT of assumptions. Without going through them one by one, I'll simply say that even assuming he is our #3 hitter, having a guy who both walks and slugs to the tune of a .518 slg percentage is NOT a bad thing.


Regardless, whether or not Dunn is any good, and whether or not he would be a good fit for the Cubs are 2 entirely separate arguments. You might convince me he doens't belong on the Cubs, but you won't convince me he is worthless because his BA with RISP is low.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=5234:date=Dec 16 2008, 06:00 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Dec 16 2008, 06:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->1.) Strikeouts aren't that bad.

I have to disagree with this one. You don't give yourself any opportunity if you strike out. If you're swinging for contact, you can bloop a single, hit through a hole in the infield, put pressure on the defense, and heck... you can even foul it off and maybe get a good pitch to hit next time.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Bingo. I hate strikeout hitters. Put the motherfucking ball in play, that was as big of a problem as anything the previous 2 Octobers. Just hit a lazy fucking flyball to right field to get a run in. People really believe an extra walk or two from Adam Dunn is going to keep us playing in October? It's situational hitting.
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Know how many double plays Dunn hit into in 2008? 7. 20 fewer than Lee.

Which is a bigger rally-killer? A strikeout or a double-play? I'll take a strikeout over a double play in any situation. That's the downside to being a high-contact hitter -- at least one without a whole lot of speed.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=5242:date=Dec 16 2008, 07:07 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 16 2008, 07:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=5234:date=Dec 16 2008, 06:00 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Dec 16 2008, 06:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->1.) Strikeouts aren't that bad.

I have to disagree with this one. You don't give yourself any opportunity if you strike out. If you're swinging for contact, you can bloop a single, hit through a hole in the infield, put pressure on the defense, and heck... you can even foul it off and maybe get a good pitch to hit next time.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Bingo. I hate strikeout hitters. Put the motherfucking ball in play, that was as big of a problem as anything the previous 2 Octobers. Just hit a lazy fucking flyball to right field to get a run in. People really believe an extra walk or two from Adam Dunn is going to keep us playing in October? It's situational hitting.
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Know how many double plays Dunn hit into in 2008? 7. 20 fewer than Lee.

Which is a bigger rally-killer? A strikeout or a double-play? I'll take a strikeout over a double play in any situation. That's the downside to being a high-contact hitter -- at least one without a whole lot of speed.
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You know Lee also had a lot more chances than anybody in baseball to do that too right? And I'd rather have double plays than 180 strikeouts. Things happen when you put the ball in play. Remember in Milwaukee where it was a tailor made double play, they botch and we score the winning run? You can't put pressure on the defense when you don't put the ball in play.
This is even more important when you face good pitchers pitching at the top of their games in the playoffs. I'd seriously be SHOCKED, absolutely shocked, if Dunn did anything at all in a playoff series. I seriously have more confidence in Soriano.

[Butcher]

Lee strikes out a lot, too, btw. 164 (Dunn). 119 (Lee). Of course, Dunn hit twice as many homers as Lee, also.

[Brock]

<!--quoteo(post=5208:date=Dec 16 2008, 05:21 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 16 2008, 05:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->If we were to somehow sign Adam Dunn, he's most likely going to split up Lee and Ramirez and I would assume that Lee moves to the 2 hole while Dunn occupies the 3.

As the number 3 hitter last year, Lee had 180 plate appearances with RISP. I'm going to assume that Dunn would get about the same amount of opportunities in that same situation. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT AN INSIGNIFICANT STAT HERE! That's a hell of a lot of opportunities to drive in runs.

To have a guy that doesn't historically hit well in that situation, I'm not too thrilled. Yes, he will get on base, but why not put Theriot at the three spot if all you want from your three hitter is to walk? I mean, Theriot had a higher OBP last year then Dunn's career average, if we just want to make sure to get our 3 hitter on, I don't see any reason Theriot can't bat there and save the 10s of millions of dollars that Dunn will cost per season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm not sure where you are getting the idea that Dunn doesn't do well with RISP.

Dunn with RISP:

2005: .248/.468/.574
2006: .221/.394/.529
2007: .241/.403/.411
2008: .241/.418/.511

With those SLG numbers (other than 2007) he isn't just walking in those situations.