Weighing Hendry's good/bad moves

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=72126:date=Dec 18 2009, 09:58 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 18 2009, 09:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72124:date=Dec 18 2009, 11:46 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Dec 18 2009, 11:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->wasn't nearly as selective at the plate for long stretches.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I just posted a site that shows he was more selective in every way for the whole of the season.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->if you factor in for an above average amount of luck, Soto was probably a .250 hitter at best last season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

If you pair a league average BABIP with his line drive%, his line would actually be closer to a .270 hitter. I think that should be our expectations for Soto going forward. We're lucky that he has developed very good plate discipline. Hopefully, he can overcome his shoulder injury and lose a few pounds. Hopefully that will elevate his slugging % and we can get a .800+ OPS again.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I know that's what the stats say, but 60% of his walks came in the first 2.5 months of the season. It just looked to me as though he got progressively worse as the season went on. I'm sure the injuries contributed quite a bit, but like I said, he regressed even defensively for most of the season. I hope that he comes to camp in better shape and his shoulder doesn't flare up, and then we can see what he really is.

If he is really the guy we saw during May and June, and not the rest of the season, then we'll be fine.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=72129:date=Dec 18 2009, 12:12 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 18 2009, 12:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->but 60% of his walks came in the first 2.5 months of the season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Of course 60% of his walks came in the first 2.5 months of the season, 60% of his plate appearances were in the first 2.5 months of the season. he was pretty much consistent with his walk % through the year.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=72133:date=Dec 18 2009, 10:33 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 18 2009, 10:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72129:date=Dec 18 2009, 12:12 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Dec 18 2009, 12:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->but 60% of his walks came in the first 2.5 months of the season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Of course 60% of his walks came in the first 2.5 months of the season, 60% of his plate appearances were in the first 2.5 months of the season. he was pretty much consistent with his walk % through the year.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That is true. Though the 20% drop in OBP (only 10% drop in BA) from July on is what I keep going back to in my mind.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=72136:date=Dec 18 2009, 12:41 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 18 2009, 12:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72133:date=Dec 18 2009, 10:33 AM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 18 2009, 10:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72129:date=Dec 18 2009, 12:12 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Dec 18 2009, 12:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->but 60% of his walks came in the first 2.5 months of the season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Of course 60% of his walks came in the first 2.5 months of the season, 60% of his plate appearances were in the first 2.5 months of the season. he was pretty much consistent with his walk % through the year.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That is true. Though the 20% drop in OBP (only 10% drop in BA) from July on is what I keep going back to in my mind.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Come on Rok, you're splitting hairs. He went from 32 BBs/235 PAs (13.6% walk rate) to 18 BBs/154 PAs (11.7%). That's not a significant distinction in walk rates.

[ruby23]

Scarey, Soto was bad last year. He wasn't unlucky, he was bad. You can throw out any stat to try to refute that and you will be wrong. His game was piss poor, he got worse defensively and worse offensively. He was bad, not unlucky, bad, not good, below average, Rick Wilkins-y.

[Rappster]

<!--quoteo(post=72148:date=Dec 18 2009, 11:39 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 18 2009, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Scarey, Soto was bad last year. He wasn't unlucky, he was bad. You can throw out any stat to try to refute that and you will be wrong. His game was piss poor, he got worse defensively and worse offensively. He was bad, not unlucky, bad, not good, below average, Rick Wilkins-y.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Ruby...you're wrong so often that, when I hear you (once again) tell someone else THEY'RE wrong, I want to call you an intervention.

Take a breath...do some introspection...maybe, a little tai chi. Then, give your answer.

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=72178:date=Dec 18 2009, 12:29 PM:name=Rappster)-->QUOTE (Rappster @ Dec 18 2009, 12:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72148:date=Dec 18 2009, 11:39 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 18 2009, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Scarey, Soto was bad last year. He wasn't unlucky, he was bad. You can throw out any stat to try to refute that and you will be wrong. His game was piss poor, he got worse defensively and worse offensively. He was bad, not unlucky, bad, not good, below average, Rick Wilkins-y.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Ruby...you're wrong so often that, when I hear you (once again) tell someone else THEY'RE wrong, I want to call you an intervention.

Take a breath...do some introspection...maybe, a little tai chi. Then, give your answer.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not wrong.

[Fella]

Soto had two horrid months, April and August, other than that he was the same as the year before. Of course you can't throw out two whole months where he was 100% lost, but he still showed signs of being able to produce, I think he will be fine.

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=72202:date=Dec 18 2009, 01:06 PM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Dec 18 2009, 01:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto had two horrid months, April and August, other than that he was the same as the year before. Of course you can't throw out two whole months where he was 100% lost, but he still showed signs of being able to produce, I think he will be fine.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Here's the thing though, was he bad because of bad luck? Or was he bad because he was bad? That's my only point (he could bounce back this year), but he was bad last year and it wasn't because his linedrives were hit at people, it was because he wasn't good.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=72214:date=Dec 18 2009, 01:24 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 18 2009, 01:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72202:date=Dec 18 2009, 01:06 PM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Dec 18 2009, 01:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto had two horrid months, April and August, other than that he was the same as the year before. Of course you can't throw out two whole months where he was 100% lost, but he still showed signs of being able to produce, I think he will be fine.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Here's the thing though, was he bad because of bad luck? Or was he bad because he was bad? That's my only point (he could bounce back this year), but he was bad last year and it wasn't because his linedrives were hit at people, it was because he wasn't good.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I think scarey's point is that babip are usually pretty consistent across the board, and not based on skill levels. In other words in some years a soft grounder finds a hole. In other years a one hopper shot ends up hit right at the fielder. If Soto regresses to the mean, he could be solid again. If BABIP was his only problem.

[Coach]

<!--quoteo(post=72214:date=Dec 18 2009, 02:24 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 18 2009, 02:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72202:date=Dec 18 2009, 01:06 PM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Dec 18 2009, 01:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto had two horrid months, April and August, other than that he was the same as the year before. Of course you can't throw out two whole months where he was 100% lost, but he still showed signs of being able to produce, I think he will be fine.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Here's the thing though, was he bad because of bad luck? Or was he bad because he was bad? That's my only point (<b>he could bounce back this year</b>), but he was bad last year and it wasn't because his linedrives were hit at people, it was because he wasn't good.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Really?
I thought that you said he was done.

[Butcher]

So...I guess we can chalk up another fat one in the "bad" column.

[Coach]

Let's hope he is a nice guy though

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=72229:date=Dec 18 2009, 01:46 PM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Dec 18 2009, 01:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Let's hope he is a nice guy though<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm sure he'll be a downright pleasure to be around. Win for the Cubs!

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=72229:date=Dec 18 2009, 01:46 PM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Dec 18 2009, 01:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Let's hope he is a nice guy though<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I hear he is kind to dumb animals.