The likelyhood of Peavy

[ColoradoCub]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Jake Peavy will miss at least a month of action due to an ankle injury, according to MLB.com.
Peavy's right ankle will reportedly be in a cast for a full month. The Padres are expected to place Peavy on the 15-day disabled list Friday. The ace pitcher actually suffered the injury running the bases on May 22, but the ankle simply hasn't gotten any better. He was initially diagnosed with ankle tendinitis, but it's unclear if that diagnosis has changed at this point.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

So, when's the trade deadline, July 31? I'm guessing this makes it likely that he won't be dealt this season.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=43939:date=Jun 12 2009, 06:11 PM:name=ColoradoCub)-->QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Jun 12 2009, 06:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Jake Peavy will miss at least a month of action due to an ankle injury, according to MLB.com.
Peavy's right ankle will reportedly be in a cast for a full month. The Padres are expected to place Peavy on the 15-day disabled list Friday. The ace pitcher actually suffered the injury running the bases on May 22, but the ankle simply hasn't gotten any better. He was initially diagnosed with ankle tendinitis, but it's unclear if that diagnosis has changed at this point.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

So, when's the trade deadline, July 31? I'm guessing this makes it likely that he won't be dealt this season.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm glad. No reason for us to give up all that to get him with how good our starters have been, and the Brewers reportedly had interest.

[Clapp]

Meanwhile, Roy Halladay left the game in the 3rd inning with a leg injury. He apparently threw a pitch, grimaced, and grabbed his leg. He's been the most durable pitcher of our era too. I just posted it in here because of course his name has been thrown out there in trade rumors, although I still don't think it will happen.

[Clapp]

And Erik Bedard is missing a start with a shoulder injury. Remember Bill Bavasi's comments on him last year:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->On Bedard going only five or six innings and 100 pitches of late, Bavasi says a lot of pitchers can have days where 90 pitches feel like 200. On why Bedard can't go longer, Bavasi says it's a good question, but one that has to be put to Bedard.

"He'll have a stupid answer for you, you can count on it,'' Bavasi said. "He'll have some dumbass answer.''<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Of course Bedard ended up having surgery on that shoulder in September. Anyway, that's 3 of the biggest names that have been thrown around in trade rumors, all out with injury right now.

[Ace]

Good. Lots of teams need starting pitchers. Now we can unload for top dollar.

[Clapp]

Halladay's injury is a strained groin.

[Clapp]

Padres trainer says Peavy could be out 12 weeks.

[ColoradoCub]

<!--quoteo(post=43961:date=Jun 12 2009, 08:55 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Jun 12 2009, 08:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Padres trainer says Peavy could be out 12 weeks.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue.gif[/img]

Good.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=33455:date=Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33434:date=Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I bet Kevin Towers is might proud of that hard line he took with the Peavy negotiations. "I want all of your good prospects, AND I want you to take this 81 million dollar contract off of my hands during the middle of a recession".

Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?

Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.

Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=43965:date=Jun 12 2009, 09:46 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jun 12 2009, 09:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33455:date=Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33434:date=Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I bet Kevin Towers is might proud of that hard line he took with the Peavy negotiations. "I want all of your good prospects, AND I want you to take this 81 million dollar contract off of my hands during the middle of a recession".

Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?

Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.

Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]

[CCwinwssoon]

With the way Vitters is playing overall this year, this could go down as one of theose good trades that never happen.

[cherp]

<!--quoteo(post=43965:date=Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33455:date=Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33434:date=Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I bet Kevin Towers is might proud of that hard line he took with the Peavy negotiations. "I want all of your good prospects, AND I want you to take this 81 million dollar contract off of my hands during the middle of a recession".

Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?

Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.

Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


No doubt...but predicting a torn ankle ligament wasn't predictable. The Pads had a deal in place to move him to get the Sox two best pitching prospects. Had Peavy not vetoed it, they'd have gotten a huge loot for him.

But yes - BT was right.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=44070:date=Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=43965:date=Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33455:date=Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33434:date=Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I bet Kevin Towers is might proud of that hard line he took with the Peavy negotiations. "I want all of your good prospects, AND I want you to take this 81 million dollar contract off of my hands during the middle of a recession".

Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?

Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.

Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


No doubt...but predicting a torn ankle ligament wasn't predictable. The Pads had a deal in place to move him to get the Sox two best pitching prospects. Had Peavy not vetoed it, they'd have gotten a huge loot for him.

But yes - BT was right.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Agreed that the ankle could not have been predicted, but 2 things.

1- Even if the ankle injury specifically could not have been predicted, when you decide to ask for more and hold onto your trading chip, you are ALWAYS taking the chance that an injury could diminish or completely destroy your assets value. Much the same reasoning is used when underage class men declare for the draft, rather than risk an injury. Put another way, it would have been difficult for Peavy to increase his trade value, however there were multiple ways for him to decrease it.

2- Had Peavy approved the trade to the Sox it would have PROVED my point, not disproved it. The fact is, Vitters, Marshall and the other 4 players most mentioned in the initial deal would have been a much bigger payoff than Poreda, Richards and the other 2 throw ins. I've yet to see any preseason publication that liked Poreda more than Vitters, nor any that liked Richards more than Marshall. The other 4 would have more value than the throw ins the Sox were contemplating.

The fact that that deal was agreed to by Towers was the proof that Towers fucked himself by trying to hold up Hendry during the GM meetings, which was my initial point.

[cherp]

<!--quoteo(post=44071:date=Jun 14 2009, 01:30 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jun 14 2009, 01:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=44070:date=Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=43965:date=Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33455:date=Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33434:date=Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I bet Kevin Towers is might proud of that hard line he took with the Peavy negotiations. "I want all of your good prospects, AND I want you to take this 81 million dollar contract off of my hands during the middle of a recession".

Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?

Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.

Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


No doubt...but predicting a torn ankle ligament wasn't predictable. The Pads had a deal in place to move him to get the Sox two best pitching prospects. Had Peavy not vetoed it, they'd have gotten a huge loot for him.

But yes - BT was right.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Agreed that the ankle could not have been predicted, but 2 things.

1- Even if the ankle injury specifically could not have been predicted, when you decide to ask for more and hold onto your trading chip, you are ALWAYS taking the chance that an injury could diminish or completely destroy your assets value. Much the same reasoning is used when underage class men declare for the draft, rather than risk an injury. Put another way, it would have been difficult for Peavy to increase his trade value, however there were multiple ways for him to decrease it.

2- Had Peavy approved the trade to the Sox it would have PROVED my point, not disproved it. The fact is, Vitters, Marshall and the other 4 players most mentioned in the initial deal would have been a much bigger payoff than Poreda, Richards and the other 2 throw ins. I've yet to see any preseason publication that liked Poreda more than Vitters, nor any that liked Richards more than Marshall. The other 4 would have more value than the throw ins the Sox were contemplating.

The fact that that deal was agreed to by Towers was the proof that Towers fucked himself by trying to hold up Hendry during the GM meetings, which was my initial point.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Yup - you are right. Peavy, even before the injury, was horribly mediocre. 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA in Petco. Kudos if you were predicting THAT. I was assuming he'd continue to be a sub 3.00 ERA guy. If he was, I don't see his price having fallen so much.

But, the bottom line is you were spot on right. Towers will get nothing for Peavy now, if he moves him. More likely, he won't even be able to find someone to eat that deal and guarantee Peavy the 22mm that he wants in the option year. That said, giving him up for the package the Cubs were offering for him may have been a bad choice also. I'm unsure there was a good choice for the Pads in their situation

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=44159:date=Jun 14 2009, 10:37 PM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Jun 14 2009, 10:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=44071:date=Jun 14 2009, 01:30 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 14 2009, 01:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=44070:date=Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Jun 14 2009, 01:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=43965:date=Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 12 2009, 10:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33455:date=Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Apr 27 2009, 11:41 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=33434:date=Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 27 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I bet Kevin Towers is might proud of that hard line he took with the Peavy negotiations. "I want all of your good prospects, AND I want you to take this 81 million dollar contract off of my hands during the middle of a recession".

Nice job Kev.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


BT - His team is 10-8 with a 43mm payroll and under 30mm in obligations for 2010. Why should he not be proud?

Unless he is forced by ownership to dump Peavy later, and he is forced (by the market and by JPs NTC) to take less than they feel he is worth, he should be proud that he held his ground and didn't take it in the shorts and give up the (expected) best player on his team.

Now hindsight is 20/20 and JP has a near 6.00 ERA, but nobody was projecting that when they were talking about acquiring him, and I doubt anyone expects that to continue over the course of his 30+ starts.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Now Peavy is out until after the trade deadline? Man, I really have to agree with BT here on this one.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


No doubt...but predicting a torn ankle ligament wasn't predictable. The Pads had a deal in place to move him to get the Sox two best pitching prospects. Had Peavy not vetoed it, they'd have gotten a huge loot for him.

But yes - BT was right.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Agreed that the ankle could not have been predicted, but 2 things.

1- Even if the ankle injury specifically could not have been predicted, when you decide to ask for more and hold onto your trading chip, you are ALWAYS taking the chance that an injury could diminish or completely destroy your assets value. Much the same reasoning is used when underage class men declare for the draft, rather than risk an injury. Put another way, it would have been difficult for Peavy to increase his trade value, however there were multiple ways for him to decrease it.

2- Had Peavy approved the trade to the Sox it would have PROVED my point, not disproved it. The fact is, Vitters, Marshall and the other 4 players most mentioned in the initial deal would have been a much bigger payoff than Poreda, Richards and the other 2 throw ins. I've yet to see any preseason publication that liked Poreda more than Vitters, nor any that liked Richards more than Marshall. The other 4 would have more value than the throw ins the Sox were contemplating.

The fact that that deal was agreed to by Towers was the proof that Towers fucked himself by trying to hold up Hendry during the GM meetings, which was my initial point.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Yup - you are right. Peavy, even before the injury, was horribly mediocre. 6-6 with a 3.97 ERA in Petco. Kudos if you were predicting THAT. I was assuming he'd continue to be a sub 3.00 ERA guy. If he was, I don't see his price having fallen so much.

But, the bottom line is you were spot on right. Towers will get nothing for Peavy now, if he moves him. More likely, he won't even be able to find someone to eat that deal and guarantee Peavy the 22mm that he wants in the option year. That said, giving him up for the package the Cubs were offering for him may have been a bad choice also. I'm unsure there was a good choice for the Pads in their situation
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


If giving up Peavy for Poreda, Richards, plus 2 would have been merely a bad decision, giving up Peavy for Vitters, Marshall, Olson, Hart, Castillo, and Stevens would have been at the very least a good move.