04-13-2009, 04:49 PM
Don't look now, Soriano is up with 2 men on. His last AB was with the bases loaded.
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Soriano
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04-13-2009, 04:50 PM
<!--quoteo(post=30006:date=Apr 13 2009, 03:49 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 13 2009, 03:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Don't look now, Soriano is up with 2 men on. His last AB was with the bases loaded.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And he struck out for the 2nd time in a row.
04-13-2009, 05:06 PM
<!--quoteo(post=29995:date=Apr 13 2009, 03:42 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 03:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29965:date=Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29824:date=Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Probability. It's a bitch, ain't it?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So you don't think that Soriano could defy probability and be a statistical anomaly? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> The probability statement had to do with tom's insinuation that had Soriano been penciled it at any other place in the lineup, he would not have homered, and thus, we would have lost. I was simply pointing out that no one can possibly know what would have occurred if he was hitting someplace else in the lineup. I took a guess: since he's a home run hitter, he's really streaky, and he's in the middle of a red-hot streak, he might have homered no matter where he was batting. But I also included, for <i>your</i> benefit, Bz, an alternate scenario, a bad scenario: Alf K's. We can't predict the future. We can only make educated guesses. But our collective educations have resoundingly indicated that leadoff guys tend to help their teams more if they get on base at a real high clip. Alf does not. A less important leadoff skill: being a great base-stealer. Alf is not. Alf does have one kick-ass skill, one that is both rare and immensely valuable: he can hit a lot of home runs. Traditionally, it's been considered a pleasant thing if there are men on base when a guy homers, which doesn't happen as often if one is leading off, but I see no problem with going against conventional wisdom as long as we keep winning. Carry on. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> But Alf <i>will</i> bat with runners on regardless of his spot in the lineup, because it is a good one top to bottom (the point Tom and Ruby were making.) So why take advantage of his uncharacteristic propensity for hitting better in the leadoff spot? It would be interesting to use Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool to see what the results would be for Soriano batting leadoff vs 3rd or 4th.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
04-13-2009, 05:45 PM
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->It would be interesting to use Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool to see what the results would be for Soriano batting leadoff vs 3rd or 4th.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Do it.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
04-13-2009, 05:53 PM
<!--quoteo(post=30044:date=Apr 13 2009, 04:45 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 04:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->It would be interesting to use Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool to see what the results would be for Soriano batting leadoff vs 3rd or 4th.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Do it. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> I'm trying but I think the site is down or something.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
04-13-2009, 06:13 PM
Using the stats Kid provided I plugged Soriano into the leadoff spot using his career averages there. In the second lineup I moved everyone down sans Fuk and plugged Soriano into the 3rd spot using his career stats out of the leadoff spot. I used last years statistics for the other players.
Lineup with Soriano leading off = 5.666 runs per game Lineup with Soriano batting 3rd = 5.567 runs per game Based on this model, the team is slightly better with Soriano leading off. Granted, this only accounts for about an extra 16 runs over the course of the season.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
04-13-2009, 06:30 PM
I did analysis of a 3rd lineup where Lee and Ramirez were swapped while Soriano is in the 3rd spot. This lineup seems more logical to me anyway.
The results... 5.576 runs per game as compared to 5.666 runs per game with Soriano leading off.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
04-13-2009, 06:55 PM
<!--quoteo(post=30063:date=Apr 13 2009, 05:13 PM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Apr 13 2009, 05:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Using the stats Kid provided I plugged Soriano into the leadoff spot using his career averages there. In the second lineup I moved everyone down sans Fuk and plugged Soriano into the 3rd spot using his career stats out of the leadoff spot. I used last years statistics for the other players.
Lineup with Soriano leading off = 5.666 runs per game Lineup with Soriano batting 3rd = 5.567 runs per game Based on this model, the team is slightly better with Soriano leading off. Granted, this only accounts for about an extra 16 runs over the course of the season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> My favorite part of that was this: scroll down to lower on the page, where the site lists "best possible lineups," and then gives various different combinations. There are 30 different "best" lineups for the Cubs. Number of those in which Alf leads off? (heh heh)
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
04-13-2009, 06:58 PM
<!--quoteo(post=30083:date=Apr 13 2009, 05:55 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 05:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=30063:date=Apr 13 2009, 05:13 PM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 13 2009, 05:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Using the stats Kid provided I plugged Soriano into the leadoff spot using his career averages there. In the second lineup I moved everyone down sans Fuk and plugged Soriano into the 3rd spot using his career stats out of the leadoff spot. I used last years statistics for the other players.
Lineup with Soriano leading off = 5.666 runs per game Lineup with Soriano batting 3rd = 5.567 runs per game Based on this model, the team is slightly better with Soriano leading off. Granted, this only accounts for about an extra 16 runs over the course of the season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--> My favorite part of that was this: scroll down to lower on the page, where the site lists "best possible lineups," and then gives various different combinations. There are 30 different "best" lineups for the Cubs. Number of those in which Alf leads off? (heh heh) <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Of the "30 best" 18 of them have the pitcher's spot not 9th too. So, I'm gonna go ahead and basically write this program off as completely flawed (although it "shows" the Soriano is better at 1st than 3rd). 
04-13-2009, 07:01 PM
Seems to me that all the program is doing is ranking players by OBP and filling out the lineup in descending order for best to worst.
04-13-2009, 07:15 PM
<!--quoteo(post=30087:date=Apr 13 2009, 06:01 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Apr 13 2009, 06:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Seems to me that all the program is doing is ranking players by OBP and filling out the lineup in descending order for best to worst.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Well, that can't be true, since Bradley is never put in the leadoff spot, and the pitcher is often put somewhere other than 9th. BZ, do you know what the specs are?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
04-13-2009, 07:18 PM
<!--quoteo(post=30099:date=Apr 13 2009, 06:15 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 06:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=30087:date=Apr 13 2009, 06:01 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Apr 13 2009, 06:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Seems to me that all the program is doing is ranking players by OBP and filling out the lineup in descending order for best to worst.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Well, that can't be true, since Bradley is never put in the leadoff spot, and the pitcher is often put somewhere other than 9th. BZ, do you know what the specs are? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Fontenot had a higher OBP than Bradley last year, hence he's the leadoff guy in the "best" lineups.
04-13-2009, 07:20 PM
<!--quoteo(post=30099:date=Apr 13 2009, 06:15 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 06:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=30087:date=Apr 13 2009, 06:01 PM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Apr 13 2009, 06:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Seems to me that all the program is doing is ranking players by OBP and filling out the lineup in descending order for best to worst.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Well, that can't be true, since Bradley is never put in the leadoff spot, and the pitcher is often put somewhere other than 9th. BZ, do you know what the specs are? <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Seems like Fontenot is always at the top of the "best" lineups, while Bradley is at #2 or #3 in a lot of those as well. Maybe speed and power are factored in, and the former is preferred at the top, while the latter is preferred toward the middle of the lineup. Or who knows, they might just be running a monte carlo simulation with thousands of iterations and just picking the lineups that produce the highest runs. Still though, that would assume a lot.
04-13-2009, 07:21 PM
Uh, Bradley <i>led the American League</i> in OBP last year.
.436 to Font's .395
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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