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Soriano represents 0.0013% of active players. Perhaps he <i>could</i> be an anomaly as they so often occur in life.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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<!--quoteo(post=29716:date=Apr 12 2009, 08:50 PM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Apr 12 2009, 08:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano represents 0.0013% of active players. Perhaps he <i>could</i> be an anomaly as they so often occur in life.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IMPOSSIBLE!!! [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/nonono.gif[/img]
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<!--quoteo(post=29697:date=Apr 12 2009, 08:09 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 12 2009, 08:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29661:date=Apr 12 2009, 12:37 PM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 12 2009, 12:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->all i know is this: if soriano didn't lead off yesterday, then he doesn't hit the game winning home run in the ninth and the cubs probably lose. can we all agree on that?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
(sigh)
There are limitless possibilities that could have happened if Alf had been batting lower in the lineup, say cleanup. My take? He's hot as hell right now, and thus would have homered at cleanup too. Only the bases might have been loaded, so instead of a 1-run squeaker, we win by 3, and thus don't have to waste a Marmol appearance, which saves wear and tear on his valuable arm, and helps us win the pennant.
<b>Or</b>, as you've kind of suggested (correct me if I'm wrong) he might have been <b><i>so </i></b> freaked out and discombobulated by not being allowed to lead off the game, that even 2-3 hours later, he still would be dizzy and weak, and thus might have struck out in the 9th.
I guess both scenarios are equally plausible.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
outlandish statement.
Wang.
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Probability. It's a bitch, ain't it?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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i hate ageeing with joe morgan, but he was right on the money last night when he said that sometimes players just don't fit in with conventional wisdom. there are exceptions to every rule. soriano is that exception. <b>the stats kid showed us prove that soriano just doesn't perform well anywhere in the lineup but leading off.</b> he's the exception. why we keep beating this horse is beyond me.
like it or not, soriano is going to lead off, he's going to be successful leading off, in fact, he'll most likely be the best lead off hitter we ever had, and nothing is going to change it. we can cry about it, we can bitch about it, we can dissect it, we can break it down to death, but it's not going to change anything. so we can just let it go. soriano, like ryne sandberg before him, is the exception. time to move on.
Wang.
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<!--quoteo(post=29644:date=Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Stats do their job. The problem lies in interpreters not evaluating CONTEXT.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
KB in a nutshell.
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<!--quoteo(post=29866:date=Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29644:date=Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Stats do their job. The problem lies in interpreters not evaluating CONTEXT.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
KB in a nutshell.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yep. I never consider context. What's context?
Every stat exists only in a vacuum, yep, that's me.
Context? More like cunt-text, that's what I say.
In fact, I don't even consider stats as to how they apply to <i>baseball</i>. I simply see them as an actuary would.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=29895:date=Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29866:date=Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29644:date=Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Stats do their job. The problem lies in interpreters not evaluating CONTEXT.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
KB in a nutshell.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yep. I never consider context. What's context?
Every stat exists only in a vacuum, yep, that's me.
Context? More like cunt-text, that's what I say.
In fact, I don't even consider stats as to how they apply to <i>baseball</i>. I simply see them as an actuary would.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
i don't know what actuary means. use it in some kind of context next time..
Wang.
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<!--quoteo(post=29913:date=Apr 13 2009, 02:14 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 13 2009, 02:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29895:date=Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29866:date=Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29644:date=Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Stats do their job. The problem lies in interpreters not evaluating CONTEXT.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
KB in a nutshell.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yep. I never consider context. What's context?
Every stat exists only in a vacuum, yep, that's me.
Context? More like cunt-text, that's what I say.
In fact, I don't even consider stats as to how they apply to <i>baseball</i>. I simply see them as an actuary would.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
i don't know what actuary means. use it in some kind of context next time..
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Did you see Fight Club? Edward Norton's character in Fight Club was an actuary. They use numbers to measure risk, life expectancy, etc. -- mostly for insurance companies or benefits providers.
Just in case you really wanted to know...
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<!--quoteo(post=29919:date=Apr 13 2009, 02:18 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 13 2009, 02:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29913:date=Apr 13 2009, 02:14 PM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 13 2009, 02:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29895:date=Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29866:date=Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29644:date=Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Stats do their job. The problem lies in interpreters not evaluating CONTEXT.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
KB in a nutshell.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yep. I never consider context. What's context?
Every stat exists only in a vacuum, yep, that's me.
Context? More like cunt-text, that's what I say.
In fact, I don't even consider stats as to how they apply to <i>baseball</i>. I simply see them as an actuary would.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
i don't know what actuary means. use it in some kind of context next time..
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Did you see Fight Club? Edward Norton's character in Fight Club was an actuary. They use numbers to measure risk, life expectancy, etc. -- mostly for insurance companies or benefits providers.
Just in case you really wanted to know...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
expectancy.....use it in context please......
Wang.
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No wonder KB loves stats.
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<!--quoteo(post=29824:date=Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Probability. It's a bitch, ain't it?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So you don't think that Soriano could defy probability and be a statistical anomaly?
Besides, the notion that batters should be able to bat the same at any part of the lineup and your notion that Soriano would perform at the same level batting lower is all based on <i>conventional wisdom</i>...which basically denies probability. You contradict yourself here, sir. You have large enough sample sizes to make an educated assumption on Soriano's performance at different parts of the lineup and you still assert that he would be better off batting lower despite the fact that the truth stares you right in the face.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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<!--quoteo(post=29965:date=Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Apr 13 2009, 03:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29824:date=Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 11:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Probability. It's a bitch, ain't it?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So you don't think that Soriano could defy probability and be a statistical anomaly?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The probability statement had to do with tom's insinuation that had Soriano been penciled it at any other place in the lineup, he would not have homered, and thus, we would have lost.
I was simply pointing out that no one can possibly know what would have occurred if he was hitting someplace else in the lineup.
I took a guess: since he's a home run hitter, he's really streaky, and he's in the middle of a red-hot streak, he might have homered no matter where he was batting. But I also included, for <i>your</i> benefit, Bz, an alternate scenario, a bad scenario: Alf K's.
We can't predict the future. We can only make educated guesses. But our collective educations have resoundingly indicated that leadoff guys tend to help their teams more if they get on base at a real high clip. Alf does not.
A less important leadoff skill: being a great base-stealer. Alf is not.
Alf does have one kick-ass skill, one that is both rare and immensely valuable: he can hit a lot of home runs. Traditionally, it's been considered a pleasant thing if there are men on base when a guy homers, which doesn't happen as often if one is leading off, but I see no problem with going against conventional wisdom as long as we keep winning. Carry on.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=29895:date=Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 13 2009, 01:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29866:date=Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Apr 13 2009, 12:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=29644:date=Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ Apr 12 2009, 02:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Stats do their job. The problem lies in interpreters not evaluating CONTEXT.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
KB in a nutshell.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yep. I never consider context. What's context?
Every stat exists only in a vacuum, yep, that's me.
Context? More like cunt-text, that's what I say.
In fact, I don't even consider stats as to how they apply to <i>baseball</i>. I simply see them as an actuary would.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Basically. You got mad at me in this very thread for simply taking PA and dividing them by RBI to get RBI per PA. You thought that was convoluted stat, it was simple long division. This is the same guy that tries to champion the fielding bible which is actually full of convoluted stats derived from other stats and are created using complex formulas. I'm convinced that a majority of the time you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about when it comes to stats and baseball in general.
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<!--quoteo(post=29861:date=Apr 13 2009, 11:47 AM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 13 2009, 11:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->i hate ageeing with joe morgan, but he was right on the money last night when he said that sometimes players just don't fit in with conventional wisdom. there are exceptions to every rule. soriano is that exception. <b>the stats kid showed us prove that soriano just doesn't perform well anywhere in the lineup but leading off.</b> he's the exception. why we keep beating this horse is beyond me.
like it or not, soriano is going to lead off, he's going to be successful leading off, in fact, he'll most likely be the best lead off hitter we ever had, and nothing is going to change it. we can cry about it, we can bitch about it, we can dissect it, we can break it down to death, but it's not going to change anything. so we can just let it go. soriano, like ryne sandberg before him, is the exception. time to move on.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
oddly enough, didn't Phillips point out that Soriano sees the fewest percentage of fastballs out of all the leadoff hitters or something like that? I have no idea if he was pulling it out of his ass or what, but it sort of defies the entire argument that Soriano is better as a leadoff hitter because of all the fastballs that he sees. I tend to think that he'd see a hell of a lot more fastballs hitting in front of Ramirez.
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