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<!--quoteo(post=85743:date=Apr 3 2010, 09:20 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 3 2010, 09:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Take out my Cardinals pick and it's 11(Cardinals)/11(Cubs)? People are a bit too optimistic I guess, because there's no good reason to pick the Cubs over them at this moment. The Cubs are very capable of winning the division, but there's too many unknowns to feel very confident in saying they will right now.
Anyway... Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies. Braves win the WC. The Cubs, Rockies, and Giants are in the mix all year for each the division and WC races.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Do you honestly think that Carpenter is going to go another season completely healthy? Other than a top heavy duo, their back end of the rotation is going to be a joke. Sure, Penny will probably get back on track, but he's been notorious for looking like Bob Gibson in the first half, and Kent Bottenfield in the second. Pujols and Holiday are awesome, but the rest of their lineup is very comparable to ours. Ludwick will be good for 20 & 85, Red Neck Rasmus will get you 15 & 70 and Skippy is Aaron Miles with a .300 average. If Aramis has a career year, something he's never had, he and a 2009 DLee would be just as good as Pujols & Holiday. They have a great defense, that's the only place where I get them an overwhelming advantage.
I hate my pretentious sounding username too.
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<!--quoteo(post=85745:date=Apr 3 2010, 10:29 PM:name=Destined)-->QUOTE (Destined @ Apr 3 2010, 10:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=85743:date=Apr 3 2010, 09:20 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 3 2010, 09:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Take out my Cardinals pick and it's 11(Cardinals)/11(Cubs)? People are a bit too optimistic I guess, because there's no good reason to pick the Cubs over them at this moment. The Cubs are very capable of winning the division, but there's too many unknowns to feel very confident in saying they will right now.
Anyway... Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies. Braves win the WC. The Cubs, Rockies, and Giants are in the mix all year for each the division and WC races.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Do you honestly think that Carpenter is going to go another season completely healthy? Other than a top heavy duo, their back end of the rotation is going to be a joke. Sure, Penny will probably get back on track, but he's been notorious for looking like Bob Gibson in the first half, and Kent Bottenfield in the second. Pujols and Holiday are awesome, but the rest of their lineup is very comparable to ours. Ludwick will be good for 20 & 85, Red Neck Rasmus will get you 15 & 70 and Skippy is Aaron Miles with a .300 average. If Aramis has a career year, something he's never had, he and a 2009 DLee would be just as good as Pujols & Holiday. They have a great defense, that's the only place where I get them an overwhelming advantage.
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I'm not going to predict he goes a whole season completely healthy, but you can't bank on him getting hurt either. His history shows it's a great possibility, and if it happens, then I would feel much better about our chances. But he's healthy now.
Every year it looks like their rotation is going to be a joke, and every year at least one blah pitcher has a very good season.
Pujols is the best player in the game by a landslide, and they didn't have a full season of Holliday last year. Rasmus should move into the 20-homer area.
And the "If Aramis has a career year and if we get 2009 D-Lee" stuff is exactly what I'm talking about. That certainly can happen. We can get 2008 years out of our other guys and the 2009 year out of Lee. Lots of things can make the Cubs capable of winning up to 95 games. But the Cardinals are clearly the safer pick right now.
Put our players in Cardinals uniforms and I might feel a little different about it.
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<!--quoteo(post=85749:date=Apr 3 2010, 09:40 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 3 2010, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=85745:date=Apr 3 2010, 10:29 PM:name=Destined)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Destined @ Apr 3 2010, 10:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=85743:date=Apr 3 2010, 09:20 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 3 2010, 09:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Take out my Cardinals pick and it's 11(Cardinals)/11(Cubs)? People are a bit too optimistic I guess, because there's no good reason to pick the Cubs over them at this moment. The Cubs are very capable of winning the division, but there's too many unknowns to feel very confident in saying they will right now.
Anyway... Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies. Braves win the WC. The Cubs, Rockies, and Giants are in the mix all year for each the division and WC races.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Do you honestly think that Carpenter is going to go another season completely healthy? Other than a top heavy duo, their back end of the rotation is going to be a joke. Sure, Penny will probably get back on track, but he's been notorious for looking like Bob Gibson in the first half, and Kent Bottenfield in the second. Pujols and Holiday are awesome, but the rest of their lineup is very comparable to ours. Ludwick will be good for 20 & 85, Red Neck Rasmus will get you 15 & 70 and Skippy is Aaron Miles with a .300 average. If Aramis has a career year, something he's never had, he and a 2009 DLee would be just as good as Pujols & Holiday. They have a great defense, that's the only place where I get them an overwhelming advantage.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not going to predict he goes a whole season completely healthy, but you can't bank on him getting hurt either. His history shows it's a great possibility, and if it happens, then I would feel much better about our chances. But he's healthy now.
Every year it looks like their rotation is going to be a joke, and every year at least one blah pitcher has a very good season.
Pujols is the best player in the game by a landslide, and they didn't have a full season of Holliday last year. Rasmus should move into the 20-homer area.
And the "If Aramis has a career year and if we get 2009 D-Lee" stuff is exactly what I'm talking about. That certainly can happen. We can get 2008 years out of our other guys and the 2009 year out of Lee. Lots of things can make the Cubs capable of winning up to 95 games. But the Cardinals are clearly the safer pick right now.
Put our players in Cardinals uniforms and I might feel a little different about it.
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Duncan is always good for pulling a rabbit out of his hat, you're right. I just think that they're not this machine that people paint them out to be. Compared to their great teams at the start of the decade, they're not nearly as good. I'd rather face this bunch, than the Edmonds/Pujols/Rolen lineup.
I hate my pretentious sounding username too.
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I think the Cubs are better equipped to handle injuries than the Cardinals are. Honestly, they have pretty good depth everywhere. I know people keep saying if any of Pujols, Carpenter, and/or Wainwright go down, they're fucked. But what if Molina goes down? Or Shumaker? As bad as their bullpen is, what if they lose one or two of those guys? It'll be even worse. I realize that if any of those guys get hurt and Pujols is healthy, they'll still have the best hitter in the NL on their team. But, they still need to get the guy runners to bat in.
I guess I'm not betting on the Cubs are Cardinals winning the division, I'm betting the Cubs will survive the division.
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A single injury could easily make the Cards irrelevant, as has been pointed out. Their pitching depth is non-existent, if (when) Carpenter gets hurt, they best they can do is Rich Hill. Ryan Franklin isn't going to repeat what he did last year. Holliday isn't going to hit .353/.419/.604 for the season either. Schumaker is still a shitty second baseman, Rasmus is still a rookie, Freese is still a 27 year old rookie who looks like he'll be the next Josh Hancock.
Keep in mind, the Cubs and Cards were tied for 1st on August 6th even with all the offensive struggles and Soriano wasting a roster spot, its not like we went 55-107 and now we're all anointing the Cubs NL Central champs, this team had serious problems last year and went on a major choke streak in August/September, its not that far fetched that they make a comeback.
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That's all very true, but we don't have the ability to replace a Lee, Ramirez, Marmol, or Soto either. If either team loses one of like four players, then that gives the other team a much, much better chance to win the division. But you can't predict any of these things. Anybody can go down with a serious injury on any given day.
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We somehow managed to keep pace for nearly 5 months with Ramirez and Soto (and Zambrano) on the DL last year, along with Marmol walking/hitting every other batter and Gregg handing out home runs like condoms at Planned Parenthood.
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<!--quoteo(post=85767:date=Apr 4 2010, 08:33 AM:name=Dave)-->QUOTE (Dave @ Apr 4 2010, 08:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->A single injury could easily make the Cards irrelevant, as has been pointed out. Their pitching depth is non-existent, if (when) Carpenter gets hurt, they best they can do is Rich Hill. Ryan Franklin isn't going to repeat what he did last year. Holliday isn't going to hit .353/.419/.604 for the season either. Schumaker is still a shitty second baseman, Rasmus is still a rookie, Freese is still a 27 year old rookie who looks like he'll be the next Josh Hancock.
Keep in mind, the Cubs and Cards were tied for 1st on August 6th even with all the offensive struggles and Soriano wasting a roster spot, its not like we went 55-107 and now we're all anointing the Cubs NL Central champs, this team had serious problems last year and went on a major choke streak in August/September, its not that far fetched that they make a comeback.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Dave's post made me feel better. He's right.
And as Ace pointed out on his blog, last year at this time the Cubs were <i>just</i> as prohibitive favorites to cakewalk to the Central title as the Cards are now...but weird things happened.
The one thing that worries me about StL that nobody's mentioning is that Rasmus is a future star, and a serious breakout threat in 2010.
Then again, we may have Castro playing short by July.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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Believe me, I know all that and have said it as much as anybody. I think we are in the playoffs last year if not for the injuries. But, I think our bullpen and defense are each worse. That's the problem.
We'll go out and get an arm or two though if these young guys struggle in the pen after the first couple of months. Probably will overpay, but it might be necessary.
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<!--quoteo(post=85807:date=Apr 4 2010, 03:51 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 4 2010, 03:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Believe me, I know all that and have said it as much as anybody. I think we are in the playoffs last year if not for the injuries. But, I think our bullpen and defense are each worse. That's the problem.
We'll go out and get an arm or two though if these young guys struggle in the pen after the first couple of months. Probably will overpay, but it might be necessary.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't see where our defense is worse this year.
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I picked the Cardinals. Mainly because I'm usually wrong about everything so maybe i'll jinx them.
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<!--quoteo(post=85809:date=Apr 4 2010, 05:08 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Apr 4 2010, 05:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=85807:date=Apr 4 2010, 03:51 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 4 2010, 03:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Believe me, I know all that and have said it as much as anybody. I think we are in the playoffs last year if not for the injuries. But, I think our bullpen and defense are each worse. That's the problem.
We'll go out and get an arm or two though if these young guys struggle in the pen after the first couple of months. Probably will overpay, but it might be necessary.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't see where our defense is worse this year.
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Yeah, the defense looks even or better than last year.
But Clapp's right: there's really no reason to be picking the Cubs right now. On paper, the Cubs have gotten much worse, and the Cardinals have gotten much better. And the Cards kicked the Cubs' ass last year.
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<!--quoteo(post=85809:date=Apr 4 2010, 03:08 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Apr 4 2010, 03:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=85807:date=Apr 4 2010, 03:51 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 4 2010, 03:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Believe me, I know all that and have said it as much as anybody. I think we are in the playoffs last year if not for the injuries. But, I think our bullpen and defense are each worse. That's the problem.
We'll go out and get an arm or two though if these young guys struggle in the pen after the first couple of months. Probably will overpay, but it might be necessary.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't see where our defense is worse this year.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Much more Soto over Hill this time around, much more Soriano, we're pretty old and potentially slower overall, Aramis was crap defensively the last two years, and I think Byrd might be worse than Fukudome in CF(although Fukudome upgrades right field quite a bit then obviously, and he's better in right than center). Our up-the-middle positions consist of Geovany Soto, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot/Jeff Baker, and Marlon Byrd. Maybe we won't be worse, but we're certainly not going to be better than average either. We should be able to make most routine plays(outside of left field anyway) though at least.
Defense can be sometimes overrated, but you need at least a pretty good one to win titles, unless your pitching staff and/or lineup are sensational.
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LA Times today...
COL
LAD
AZ
SF
SD
STL
CIN
MIL
CHC
PIT
HOU
PHI
ATL
FLA
NYM
WAS
Fat Bastard is an immensely obese, hardly able to walk (weighing a metric ton) gardener and henchman hailing from Scotland. His extreme size endows Fat Bastard with super-human strength as exhibited by his prowess in the Sumo ring from Goldmember. This makes him a formidable enemy for Austin Powers. Fat Bastard is noted for his foul temper, his frequent flatulence, his vulgar and revolting bad manners and his unusual eating habits, which include taste for Human infants (which he calls "the other other white meat") or anything that looks like a baby, e.g. small people. Fat Bastard has been a regular at Cub games since the early 80's when he tried several times (unsuccessfully) to eat the visiting San Diego Chicken.
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<!--quoteo(post=85815:date=Apr 4 2010, 03:38 PM:name=MW4)-->QUOTE (MW4 @ Apr 4 2010, 03:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->LA Times today...
COL
LAD
AZ
SF
SD
STL
CIN
MIL
CHC
PIT
HOU
PHI
ATL
FLA
NYM
WAS<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Those central predictions are ridiculous.
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