Peavy Talk

[rok]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->virtually every study I've seen suggests there is no such thing as a "clutch" hitter<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I disagree with that statement big time. Other than that, I agree with everything else that BT said.

[sleepyhead]

<!--quoteo(post=2159:date=Dec 8 2008, 10:02 AM:name=Giff)-->QUOTE (Giff @ Dec 8 2008, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2148:date=Dec 8 2008, 09:34 AM:name=ColoradoCub)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Dec 8 2008, 09:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2139:date=Dec 8 2008, 07:47 AM:name=sleepyhead)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (sleepyhead @ Dec 8 2008, 07:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2132:date=Dec 8 2008, 08:11 AM:name=Runnys)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Runnys @ Dec 8 2008, 08:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2131:date=Dec 8 2008, 08:01 AM:name=ColoradoCub)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Dec 8 2008, 08:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Keep in mind that despite all the virtual ink that will be spilled on Peavy over the next four days, Jayson Stark sees "just about a zero chance" he's dealt at the Meetings. Still, the Cubs and Padres seem to already have a framework in place involving Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Josh Vitters, and maybe Ronny Cedeno.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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Let me just say that I don't like it.
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You don't like a deal that would involve getting Peavy and giving up Marshall, Hart, Vitters and Cedeno? Seriously? None of those names give me even a second of pause in that deal.
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Seriously.
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I'm with those who aren't a huge fan of this. One of the many reasons we were so great last year was our outstanding depth. We had 25 guys that could step in at any point and help this team win. Losing Marshall and Cedeno (and possibly Hart) really hurts that depth, for another starting pitcher that will eventually push someone like Lilly into the pen in the playoffs. I wouldn't complain or be upset if we got Peavy by any means, but I think it could possibly come back to bite us a little if we lose a lot of the depth. Starting pitching is probably the last thing on my list of things that need improvement.
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I would argue that we wouldn't be trading anyone that had a substantial impact on our team, even from a depth perspective. Cedeno had a couple good weeks early on, Marshall was a decent long man, Hart was not good.

We're talking about Jake Fucking Peavy vs. 4 guys who won't have more than a marginal impact on the 2009 team. I just don't get it.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=2159:date=Dec 8 2008, 09:02 AM:name=Giff)-->QUOTE (Giff @ Dec 8 2008, 09:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2148:date=Dec 8 2008, 09:34 AM:name=ColoradoCub)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Dec 8 2008, 09:34 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2139:date=Dec 8 2008, 07:47 AM:name=sleepyhead)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (sleepyhead @ Dec 8 2008, 07:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2132:date=Dec 8 2008, 08:11 AM:name=Runnys)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Runnys @ Dec 8 2008, 08:11 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2131:date=Dec 8 2008, 08:01 AM:name=ColoradoCub)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Dec 8 2008, 08:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Keep in mind that despite all the virtual ink that will be spilled on Peavy over the next four days, Jayson Stark sees "just about a zero chance" he's dealt at the Meetings. Still, the Cubs and Padres seem to already have a framework in place involving Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart, Josh Vitters, and maybe Ronny Cedeno.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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Let me just say that I don't like it.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

You don't like a deal that would involve getting Peavy and giving up Marshall, Hart, Vitters and Cedeno? Seriously? None of those names give me even a second of pause in that deal.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Seriously.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm with those who aren't a huge fan of this. One of the many reasons we were so great last year was our outstanding depth. We had 25 guys that could step in at any point and help this team win. Losing Marshall and Cedeno (and possibly Hart) really hurts that depth, for another starting pitcher that will eventually push someone like Lilly into the pen in the playoffs. I wouldn't complain or be upset if we got Peavy by any means, but I think it could possibly come back to bite us a little if we lose a lot of the depth. Starting pitching is probably the last thing on my list of things that need improvement.
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I disagree, I'm not sure this deal would do much, if anything, to our depth. Losing Marshall will hurt some for sure, I think he could have done much more if given the chance and I expect he will for a new team, but Cedeno and Pie are hardly irreplaceable, nor were they major contributors. Vitters is still a long ways off and Hart shouldn't be anywhere near our major league roster.

If you can get a Cy young winner with the kind of numbers Peavy has without giving up any major pieces, you do it.

[Giff]

To both sleepy and Fella - like I said, I wouldn't be unhappy at all if we got Peavy. I wouldn't even say I'm really "against" this, just that maybe it's not the best uses of our resources. Assuming Marquis gets traded as well, we would then have created two holes (lefty reliever/swing man and backup shortstop) to fill a hole that we don't have (starting pitcher). Obviously starting pitcher is more important, but I could see this potentially creating a depth problem when we don't have the resources to fill those two holes we created.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=2160:date=Dec 8 2008, 10:05 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 8 2008, 10:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->virtually every study I've seen suggests there is no such thing as a "clutch" hitter<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I disagree with that statement big time. Other than that, I agree with everything else that BT said.
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Perhaps it's overstated a bit, and maybe the research has shown something different recently, but I'll go with this from nate silver:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->That said, apart from the bonus effects of plate discipline, it's probably folly for a club to go looking for clutch hitters -- the ability just isn't important enough in the bigger scheme of things. Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[rok]

I really don't see a problem with our depth, one way or the other. Most of these players weren't major contributors to our success and should be easily replaceable. And I must be one of the few people here who doesn't expect Marshall to ever amount to much more than a decent middle reliever. He has always had trouble pitching more than 5 innings, and I don't see that changing. Trade these bums. Go find a backup SS off the scrap heap, and possibly even a LH pitcher who can get lefties out, and we have no depth problems. Maybe it will cost us a bit more in terms of money, but we aren't in the poor house just yet, so we can afford it.

[Andy]

<!--quoteo(post=2180:date=Dec 8 2008, 10:38 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 8 2008, 10:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I really don't see a problem with our depth, one way or the other. Most of these players weren't major contributors to our success and should be easily replaceable. And I must be one of the few people here who doesn't expect Marshall to ever amount to much more than a decent middle reliever. He has always had trouble pitching more than 5 innings, and I don't see that changing. Trade these bums. Go find a backup SS off the scrap heap, and possibly even a LH pitcher who can get lefties out, and we have no depth problems. Maybe it will cost us a bit more in terms of money, but we aren't in the poor house just yet, so we can afford it.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Bingo! Well said Rok. We can either pick up any old 24th-25th man to be our utility infielder or take from our minor league system. There have to be other guys that can play SS/2B with decent defense and the ability to hit .250 in the majors.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=2177:date=Dec 8 2008, 10:36 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Dec 8 2008, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2160:date=Dec 8 2008, 10:05 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Dec 8 2008, 10:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->virtually every study I've seen suggests there is no such thing as a "clutch" hitter<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I disagree with that statement big time. Other than that, I agree with everything else that BT said.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Perhaps it's overstated a bit, and maybe the research has shown something different recently, but I'll go with this from nate silver:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->That said, apart from the bonus effects of plate discipline, it's probably folly for a club to go looking for clutch hitters -- the ability just isn't important enough in the bigger scheme of things. Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
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I think that certain hitters thrive depending on the situation. I'm not sure that a formula can properly capture this, but most of the time when I see stats for BARISP they're pretty accurate. It just doesn't seem enough to say that if a hitter is already a high average/high OBP guy, that it translates automatically into that player being "clutch." 70% seems a high attribution, but statistically speaking it isn't. That other 30% is pretty significant and can't mostly be attributed to luck IMO.

[HTC]

Nothing huge here but it's kind of interesting.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->“Guys that you've got good relationships with, usually there's less cat-and-mouse games,” Towers said before leaving San Diego for baseball's winter meetings. “Certain guys deal differently. Jim Hendry with the Cubs is very open, up-front, has a good feeling for value. Like with (Jake) Peavy, (Hendry's) not going to embarrass you and say, well, 'This guy's not available, this guy's not available, this guy's not available.' It's more, 'If I'm going to be in the running for Peavy, everybody's available.' ”

If Towers trades his pitching ace to the Cubs this winter, it will be partially the product of the personal relationship he has forged with his Cubs'contemporary.

Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light. In a business where such information is precious and is often considered proprietary, establishing trust and cultivating candor are critical to getting deals done.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Brock]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I wonder what that's about.

[Coldneck]

<!--quoteo(post=2213:date=Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM:name=Brock)-->QUOTE (Brock @ Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I wonder what that's about.
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Felix Pie had a sex change operation in the offseason.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=2216:date=Dec 8 2008, 11:39 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Dec 8 2008, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2213:date=Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I wonder what that's about.
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Felix Pie had a sex change operation in the offseason.
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So he finally got that penis he's always wanted. Good for him.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=2213:date=Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM:name=Brock)-->QUOTE (Brock @ Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I wonder what that's about.
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Vitters did get hit with the injury bug this year and last snd things were kept low key. I could see that being discussed.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=2221:date=Dec 8 2008, 11:45 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 8 2008, 11:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2216:date=Dec 8 2008, 11:39 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Dec 8 2008, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2213:date=Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I wonder what that's about.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Felix Pie had a sex change operation in the offseason.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So he finally got that penis he's always wanted. Good for him.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This will be the first thing that people who stumble onto here from the net will read. What an introduction.

[Coldneck]

<!--quoteo(post=2223:date=Dec 8 2008, 12:47 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Dec 8 2008, 12:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2221:date=Dec 8 2008, 11:45 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Dec 8 2008, 11:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2216:date=Dec 8 2008, 11:39 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Dec 8 2008, 11:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=2213:date=Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Dec 8 2008, 12:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hendry has already told Towers to be cautious about a particular Cubs'prospect because of medical issues that might not otherwise have come to light.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I wonder what that's about.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Felix Pie had a sex change operation in the offseason.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So he finally got that penis he's always wanted. Good for him.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This will be the first thing that people who stumble onto here from the net will read. What an introduction.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Basically that exchange is a microcosm of SOI. So I see no problems with it. [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/emu.gif[/img]