<!--quoteo(post=14385:date=Jan 28 2009, 03:37 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Jan 28 2009, 03:37 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=14382:date=Jan 28 2009, 03:34 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jan 28 2009, 03:34 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Putting Alf in RF, putting Bradley in CF, signing one of the good-hit/no-field guys who are now cheap for LF...
hey, anything is better than trotting Fuk/Reed Johnson out there every day.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I know where this is headed...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Since when is going to arbitration better than being a free agent?
<b>It's true for Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard, two remarkably similar players</b> born 10 days apart in November 1979. Check their stats over the past three seasons:
Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn: 2006-2008 seasons
Player AVG OBP SLG HR RBI BB K
Howard .277 .385 .595 153 431 296 579
Dunn .244 .379 .518 120 298 335 523
Without taking park effects into account, it seems pretty clear Howard was better. But as you'll see, the actual gap is not as large as the perceived gap. And based on what both players are set to earn next season, that perceived gap is quite large.
Howard, who is eligible for arbitration, asked the Phillies for $18 million, which is $8 million more than he made last year after winning his arbitration case. The Phillies countered with a $14 million offer, so at the very least Howard is getting a 40-percent raise. Dunn, on the other hand, made $13 million last season. But despite what would be considered a typical Adam Dunn season, the prevailing wisdom is that he stands to make a lot less, even though he is a free agent.
If nothing else, this illustrates just how bad the free agent market is right now. Not only are many free agents not getting the offers they might have gotten in the past, but comparable players could earn more than them in arbitration, even though arbitration is designed to keep costs down.
Therefore, even though Howard probably wouldn't get $14 million per season as a free agent, he is set up to get at least that via arbitration. You could point to Mark Teixeira as a benchmark for what Howard would get as a free agent, but Teixeira stands to be a much more productive player over the next five to 10 years.. Not only is he a few months younger, but he is also an elite defender, a more well-rounded hitter, and he has an athletic frame that should allow him to age a lot more gracefully than Howard.
The problem for Dunn goes back to perception, as he doesn't have the high-profile accomplishments that Howard does, and some seem to think he doesn't have passion for the game. Howard, on the other hand, has an MVP. Howard won a World Series. Howard is a bona fide "run producer." I mean, look at those RBIs! But in the end, RBIs are product of opportunity, and as the chart below indicates, Howard gets plenty of that.
<b>RBI Opportunities: 2006-08
Player PA with runners on (Rank)
Howard 1,076 (1)
A. Dunn 883 (37)</b>
No disrespect to Howard, who is an excellent player, but it seems as though a lot of his aura comes from an insane amount of RBI opportunities. Coupled with the fact that he has played for a winning team, he's probably a little overrated. <!--coloro:#008000-->
<!--/coloro-->Dunn, on the other hand, doesn't have nearly as many RBI opportunities, and has played mostly for awful teams. And that has probably made him a little underrated.<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->
If you judge these two players based on their individual merits, as opposed to their teammates getting on base in front of them, the difference between them gets even smaller. Check out the following chart, which shows you their adjusted OPS over the past three seasons. For those unfamiliar, adjusted OPS is a park- and league-normalized stat, where 100 is average.
Adjusted <b>OPS</b>: 2006-2008
Player 2006 2007 2008
Howard 167 144 <!--coloro:#FF0000-->
<!--/coloro-->124<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->
A. Dunn 114 136 <!--coloro:#FF0000-->
<!--/coloro-->129<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->
Hey, Phillies fans, notice a disturbing pattern? Howard's adjusted OPS is trending downward, representing the fact that his average, OBP, and slugging have each decreased in each of the past two seasons. Dunn is nothing if not consistent, and is the only player in baseball to hit at least 40 homers in each of the past five seasons.
None of this is to say that Dunn is a superior player. Even if you believe he is a better fielder, they are both negatives with the leather, and Howard's consistent edge in batting average makes him the better hitter. However, when looked at in a vacuum (or as close as we can get to a vacuum),<b> it's clear that these two are pretty comparable</b>. Popular perception is a powerful thing though, and it's the reason Howard is likely to make as much as three times more than Dunn next season despite not being on the free market.
Matt Meyers is a contributing editor at ESPN The Magazine.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance