Billy Beane: The Movie!

[Coldneck]

You told Butch that and you're still around to talk about it? Seriously, welcome hPOD. I hope you have thick skin.

[hPOD]

<!--quoteo(post=17370:date=Feb 11 2009, 02:42 PM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Feb 11 2009, 02:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You told Butch that and you're still around to talk about it? Seriously, welcome hPOD. I hope you have thick skin.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Actually one of the main reasons I'm here. I'm sick of overly moderated boards full of thin skinned people who cry about anything they don't agree with or find politically incorrect. I have no problems with criticism if it's deserved. There are other reasons, which I've elaborated to Butch when he asked, but I'm sure you'll get it as time goes on!

I'm happy to be here, it was great to see you guys went public with SOI! I missed most of you after you ditched scout!

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=17364:date=Feb 11 2009, 01:14 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 11 2009, 01:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17361:date=Feb 11 2009, 02:03 PM:name=hPOD)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (hPOD @ Feb 11 2009, 02:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17360:date=Feb 11 2009, 01:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 11 2009, 01:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17357:date=Feb 11 2009, 01:46 PM:name=hPOD)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (hPOD @ Feb 11 2009, 01:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17199:date=Feb 10 2009, 08:26 PM:name=PcB)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (PcB @ Feb 10 2009, 08:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->There's no such thing as "clutch" There are better hitters in the playoffs, but those guys tend to be the better hitters in the regular season as well.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Tell that to A-Rod. He's great in the regular season but never seems all that great in the playoffs.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
.279/.361/.483 in the postseason isn't too shabby. Sure, it isn't .306/.389/.578 (his career numbers). But you're also facing the best teams' very best pitchers in the postseason. It makes sense that there's a drop in numbers.
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Wow, I have to admit I didn't bother checking his playoff numbers, and that shows they aren't as bad as I thought, but everytime I've watched him in the playoffs he's seemed as "unclutch" as it's gets. My opinion of him is rather low at the moment, so that may have attributed to this as my example.
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I think part of it is that A-Rod, like a lot of power hitters, strikes out a lot. When you strike out in key situations -- especially in the playoffs -- I think it tends to get magnified in peoples' heads. A lot of people thought Sosa wasn't clutch -- and I think it was because of the strikeouts. When you swing and miss, it seems like a bigger failure than if you ground out or fly out.
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And that's because it usually is. Runs are so much harder to come by in the playoffs. You've gotta put the ball in play, move runners over. Also it's a high pressure situation on the defense too. Look at Durham, look at Buckner, look at Alex Gonzalez(and he was the best SS in the league all year, got screwed of the GG), look at our game 2 this year. A lot of guys are really nervous out there and I think that might even hurt you on defense more than offense. It definitely did for me when I played.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=17375:date=Feb 11 2009, 02:51 PM:name=hPOD)-->QUOTE (hPOD @ Feb 11 2009, 02:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17370:date=Feb 11 2009, 02:42 PM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Feb 11 2009, 02:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You told Butch that and you're still around to talk about it? Seriously, welcome hPOD. I hope you have thick skin.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Actually one of the main reasons I'm here. I'm sick of overly moderated boards full of thin skinned people who cry about anything they don't agree with or find politically incorrect. I have no problems with criticism if it's deserved. There are other reasons, which I've elaborated to Butch when he asked, but I'm sure you'll get it as time goes on!

I'm happy to be here, it was great to see you guys went public with SOI! I missed most of you after you ditched scout!
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


who are you pod? do we know you?

[PcB]

<!--quoteo(post=17364:date=Feb 11 2009, 02:14 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 11 2009, 02:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17361:date=Feb 11 2009, 02:03 PM:name=hPOD)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (hPOD @ Feb 11 2009, 02:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17360:date=Feb 11 2009, 01:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 11 2009, 01:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17357:date=Feb 11 2009, 01:46 PM:name=hPOD)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (hPOD @ Feb 11 2009, 01:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17199:date=Feb 10 2009, 08:26 PM:name=PcB)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (PcB @ Feb 10 2009, 08:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->There's no such thing as "clutch" There are better hitters in the playoffs, but those guys tend to be the better hitters in the regular season as well.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Tell that to A-Rod. He's great in the regular season but never seems all that great in the playoffs.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
.279/.361/.483 in the postseason isn't too shabby. Sure, it isn't .306/.389/.578 (his career numbers). But you're also facing the best teams' very best pitchers in the postseason. It makes sense that there's a drop in numbers.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Wow, I have to admit I didn't bother checking his playoff numbers, and that shows they aren't as bad as I thought, but everytime I've watched him in the playoffs he's seemed as "unclutch" as it's gets. My opinion of him is rather low at the moment, so that may have attributed to this as my example.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think part of it is that A-Rod, like a lot of power hitters, strikes out a lot. When you strike out in key situations -- especially in the playoffs -- I think it tends to get magnified in peoples' heads. A lot of people thought Sosa wasn't clutch -- and I think it was because of the strikeouts. When you swing and miss, it seems like a bigger failure than if you ground out or fly out.

To add to the sample size argument -- Sosa was ridiculous in the 2003 series against the Marlins. He went .308/.455/.577. Those are Hall of Fame numbers. But he was .188/.409/.250 just one series before that against the Braves in the NLDS. So was he a choker against the Braves and then suddenly clutch against the Marlins?

It's so hard to measure playoff performance because a batter gets 500+ ABs in the regular season and then anywhere from 15-50 in the postseason (depending how far your team advances).
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I fucking love Butcher.

[Brock]

<!--quoteo(post=17311:date=Feb 11 2009, 12:21 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Feb 11 2009, 12:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->If you think OBP is the most important thing, that clutch results are random, that BABIP is random, pretty much everything but walks and HRs are random, then you might as well watch dice baseball. You are discounting the things that make real live baseball an interesting game.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

No offense Leonard, but it's comments like these (and the "they must really not watch the games" comment) that make the anti-stathead folks like yourself come off as very petty, smug, and closed minded. Just because others like to delve a little bit deeper into the statistics of the game that means that they are somehow making the game less interesting for themselves? That's just silly.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->If the tying run is at 3rd less than 2 outs, you pitch to Adam Dunn where he can't hit the ball and hope for a KO or at worst, walk. If you have a multiple run lead with no runners on base, you pitch to where Adam Dunn can hit the ball. 75% chance he gets out, 10% chance he hit a HR.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Is it ironic for me to ask you to cite some statistics to prove these percentages? Or did you just make it up from your unbiased "observation?"

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Clutch hitting has to exist, because clutch at bats are not the same as other at bats.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

No one is saying that clutch hitting doesn't exist. Of course it exists. What has been questioned is the idea that clutch hitters exist i.e. are there guys that are clutch year after year after year. And for the most part you can't really find any, though I was just reading a newer article from Bill James the other day where he suggests that some of the studies may have been flawed and does point out some clutch players, such as David Ortiz and Chipper Jones, if I'm remembering correctly.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->It is not just the ability to handle pressure, in clutch ABs you see better pitchers. Then you add the pressure factor. There is no way that everybody handles pressure equally, or that the same player would not have a different response to pressure over time.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I tend to think that by the time a guy reaches the big leagues with all the time spent playing this game in his lifetime that he has a pretty good idea on how to handle pressure. And I tend to think that relying solely on observation skews your perceptions as you tend to remember all the times that a player fails in pressure situations and put your own spin on it without going back to the statistics to confirm or refute your perceptions.

[bz]

Is it too much to ask for just a little parity? Sipes has shown more than most here, btw.

[veryzer]

sipes is the man. i find myself agreeing with him most of time.

[hPOD]

<!--quoteo(post=17420:date=Feb 11 2009, 06:25 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Feb 11 2009, 06:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->who are you pod? do we know you?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I wouldn't say you know me, I was around on Scout.com for a short while before you guys left and formed the original SOI. I believe you were under the name bone or something back then, but I could be mistaken because I only spoke to some of you via forum posts a few times before you left. It was one of the few baseball forums where some good conversation was going on, which is why I came around, usually forums are full of 8 year old thin skinned DB's who aren't worth talking too...that's why I like it here, whether it's for my team or not.

[Jody]

Tom didn't become Bone until he came to SOI 1 when it was a private site if I'm not mistaken.

[veryzer]

bone is dead my friend, bone is dead. so is tomveryzer. long live veryzer!

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=17537:date=Feb 12 2009, 08:28 AM:name=Jody)-->QUOTE (Jody @ Feb 12 2009, 08:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Tom didn't become Bone until he came to SOI 1 when it was a private site if I'm not mistaken.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You're not mistaken and hPod is pretending.

[hPOD]

<!--quoteo(post=17562:date=Feb 12 2009, 11:18 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 12 2009, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17537:date=Feb 12 2009, 08:28 AM:name=Jody)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jody @ Feb 12 2009, 08:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Tom didn't become Bone until he came to SOI 1 when it was a private site if I'm not mistaken.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You're not mistaken and hPod is pretending.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Pretending what?

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=17579:date=Feb 12 2009, 12:26 PM:name=hPOD)-->QUOTE (hPOD @ Feb 12 2009, 12:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17562:date=Feb 12 2009, 11:18 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 12 2009, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17537:date=Feb 12 2009, 08:28 AM:name=Jody)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Jody @ Feb 12 2009, 08:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Tom didn't become Bone until he came to SOI 1 when it was a private site if I'm not mistaken.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You're not mistaken and hPod is pretending.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Pretending what?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Don't know, but there's virtually no way you should what tom changed his name to for a couple of weeks when we started SOI 1.

[kbwsb]

This is a baseball forum.