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<!--quoteo(post=25037:date=Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM:name=Destined)-->QUOTE (Destined @ Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->A 100 mph speed arm rarely ever prevails for the long term. Other than Randy Johnson, Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan, who has succeeded really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He doesn't have to continue throwing at 100 mph and he'll learn that. I bet he'll pitch at 96-97, just like Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez for example are doing quite well. If you strike out with him, well there's an excellent chance that would've been the same case for whoever else you would've drafted as well. If not, you have an extraordinary talent. That's a gamble I'd take in a heartbeat.
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<!--quoteo(post=25040:date=Mar 25 2009, 06:25 PM:name=Captain)-->QUOTE (Captain @ Mar 25 2009, 06:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Strasburg is far and away the best talent.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I agree completely but thats a lot of time and money invested in a 'someday' closer.
Other teams have done it with there first pick but not at that cost.
It just doesnt make sense to spend that much up front and expotentially more down the line for a closer.
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He's a starting pitcher.
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Double check with your scouts ,Clappie.
Word is he projects as a closer.
He wont last as a starter.
He's a closer in waiting.
A herd of buffalo can move only as fast as the slowest buffalo. When the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first. This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members.
In much the same way the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Excessive intake of alcohol, we all know, kills brain cells, but naturally it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. That's why you always feel smarter after a few beers.
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<!--quoteo(post=25042:date=Mar 25 2009, 07:27 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 25 2009, 07:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25037:date=Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM:name=Destined)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Destined @ Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->A 100 mph speed arm rarely ever prevails for the long term. Other than Randy Johnson, Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan, who has succeeded really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He doesn't have to continue throwing at 100 mph and he'll learn that. I bet he'll pitch at 96-97, just like Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez for example are doing quite well. If you strike out with him, well there's an excellent chance that would've been the same case for whoever else you would've drafted as well. If not, you have an extraordinary talent. That's a gamble I'd take in a heartbeat.
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Not for that kind of money. There are so many more examples that show this kid is not going to last vs him turning into a Lincecum or Hernandez.
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Anyone who strikes out 23 batters in a game is not closer material. He projects as a #1 starter.
That doesn't mean that he might not spend a little while in the pen, ala David Price, but he's a starter.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=25068:date=Mar 25 2009, 08:24 PM:name=stevestonescigar)-->QUOTE (stevestonescigar @ Mar 25 2009, 08:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25042:date=Mar 25 2009, 07:27 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 25 2009, 07:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25037:date=Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM:name=Destined)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Destined @ Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->A 100 mph speed arm rarely ever prevails for the long term. Other than Randy Johnson, Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan, who has succeeded really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He doesn't have to continue throwing at 100 mph and he'll learn that. I bet he'll pitch at 96-97, just like Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez for example are doing quite well. If you strike out with him, well there's an excellent chance that would've been the same case for whoever else you would've drafted as well. If not, you have an extraordinary talent. That's a gamble I'd take in a heartbeat.
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Not for that kind of money. There are so many more examples that show this kid is not going to last vs him turning into a Lincecum or Hernandez.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I wouldn't give him that rumored contract, but if he'd take a reasonable deal, I'm taking him #1. No doubt about it.
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Neyer's mantra, for years, is that "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect." Or, as Bill James says, "all pitchers get injured...100% of them. What matters is how they bounce back from those inevitable injuries."
Personally, I love phenoms. I love talented young kids, I love flamethrowers, and I love everything about Strasburg. However, as a Cub fan who witnessed the Mark Prior years (not to mention Kerry Wood, who struck out 20 Houston Astros in one of his first MLB starts), I think I'd be a little wary about handing this kid $25 or 50 Million.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=25105:date=Mar 25 2009, 11:13 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 25 2009, 11:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Neyer's mantra, for years, is that "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect." Or, as Bill James says, "all pitchers get injured...100% of them. What matters is how they bounce back from those inevitable injuries."
Personally, I love phenoms. I love talented young kids, I love flamethrowers, and I love everything about Strasburg. However, as a Cub fan who witnessed the Mark Prior years (not to mention Kerry Wood, who struck out 20 Houston Astros in one of his first MLB starts), I think I'd be a little wary about handing this kid $25 or 50 Million.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Good take Kabes. Like I said, I think the bad luck we've had definitely makes a difference. I'm just saying in general, I'm taking a chance on this kid, but not at one of those ridiculous prices. For the Nats, if he can come at a fair price why wouldn't they do it? He's the type of talent that could finally do something for that franchise. If not, it's where they are right now anyway. Go big or go home.
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50 mil is a Boras figure and I doubt he will get that but a team will overpay him. Washington, Seattle, San Diego and Pittsburgh are the first four teams in the draft (If I am not mistaken). Baltimore is probably the first team in the draft that would overpay him. Next would be the Giants.
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<!--quoteo(post=25037:date=Mar 25 2009, 07:23 PM:name=Destined)-->QUOTE (Destined @ Mar 25 2009, 07:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->A 100 mph speed arm rarely ever prevails for the long term. Other than Randy Johnson, Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan, who has succeeded really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
the great kyle farnsworth, first ballot hall of famer.
Wang.
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<!--quoteo(post=25100:date=Mar 25 2009, 11:31 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 25 2009, 11:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25068:date=Mar 25 2009, 08:24 PM:name=stevestonescigar)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (stevestonescigar @ Mar 25 2009, 08:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25042:date=Mar 25 2009, 07:27 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 25 2009, 07:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25037:date=Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM:name=Destined)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Destined @ Mar 25 2009, 06:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->A 100 mph speed arm rarely ever prevails for the long term. Other than Randy Johnson, Bob Feller and Nolan Ryan, who has succeeded really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He doesn't have to continue throwing at 100 mph and he'll learn that. I bet he'll pitch at 96-97, just like Tim Lincecum and Felix Hernandez for example are doing quite well. If you strike out with him, well there's an excellent chance that would've been the same case for whoever else you would've drafted as well. If not, you have an extraordinary talent. That's a gamble I'd take in a heartbeat.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Not for that kind of money. There are so many more examples that show this kid is not going to last vs him turning into a Lincecum or Hernandez.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I wouldn't give him that rumored contract, but if he'd take a reasonable deal, I'm taking him #1. No doubt about it.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Then we're not talking about the same thing. With Boras as his agent, "a reasonable deal" ain't happening.
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Some recent notable signing bonuses.
Joe Mauer: 5.7 mill
David Price: 8.5 mill
Matt Wieters: 6 mill
Strasburg is NOT going to get 50 mill. I bet my left calf on it.
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<!--quoteo(post=25139:date=Mar 26 2009, 08:42 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Mar 26 2009, 08:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Some recent notable signing bonuses.
Joe Mauer: 5.7 mill
David Price: 8.5 mill
Matt Wieters: 6 mill
Strasburg is NOT going to get 50 mill. I bet my left calf on it.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
A little off topic but you and I are going to have a calf-off this year at SOITOW because I think I can take you.
I picture a pissed-off Amazon bitch; uncontrollable, disobedient, boldly resisting any kind of emotional shackles...angrily begging for more ejaculate. -KB
Showing your teeth is a sign of weakness in primates. Whenever someone smiles at me, all I see is a chimpanzee begging for its life. - Dwight
RIP Sarge
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<!--quoteo(post=25139:date=Mar 26 2009, 08:42 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Mar 26 2009, 08:42 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Some recent notable signing bonuses.
Joe Mauer: 5.7 mill
David Price: 8.5 mill
Matt Wieters: 6 mill
Strasburg is NOT going to get 50 mill. I bet my left calf on it.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Dude, they're not talking about a $50 M signing bonus, they're talking about a $50 M contract. Jeff Samardzija got a $10 M deal with option years that could take it $16.5 M and he was taken in the 5th round.
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I know it's a few years ago, but Mark Prior, the last "sure thing" pitcher, signed a 5 year - $10.5 mil contract with a $4 mil signing bonus. Granted that was in 2002, but has anyone's worth straight out of college really risen 500% in 7 years?
I got nothin'.
Andy
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