Soriano

[leonardsipes]

I don't think Soriano can make the adjustment. It is not a matter of getting used to the spot in the lineup, but the type of pitches he sees. He is going to hack no matter what, so he need the heart of the order behind him.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=25430:date=Mar 27 2009, 06:03 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 27 2009, 06:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Alf ain't Einstein out there either. They're both speedy; their baserunning differences are negligible.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Actually, Soriano is a very intelligent base stealer. He's just under the 80% success rate for his career.

Here's the thing KB, Soriano is not batting leadoff because he wouldn't hit well else-where in the lineup. He's batting leadoff because Lou thinks he's the best leadoff hitter and best utilized there.

Now, I tend to believe that the 1 spot is better off with a high OBP player, but this is a bit of an unusual team. Do you know how good this team is at turning the lineup over? Soriano had quite a lot of chances with men on base last year. Conventional thinking says that a high OBP/low SLG player should be leadoff. But maybe in some weird accidental way, Soriano batting leadoff makes this team one of the top run producers in baseball. After all, Soriano is only guaranteed to lead off an inning once a game.

[Scarey]

Also, keep this in mind.

Soriano has averaged 632 ABs up until last season (no counting his first two years where he only had a total of 58 ABs). If you extrapolate his numbers from his 453 ABs last year and apply it towards his average of 632 ABs, he would have had 40 HRs and 105 RBIs. That's some pretty good production IMO.

[wcplummer]

the problem i have withs alf in the leadoff is his consistency. He can go long stretches where he is a very poor batter. If it matches with a hot streak of a 2-3-4 hitter it sucks. Good leadoff hitters find a ay to get on even when the hits are not coming.

[Clapp]

Leading off: 3296 PA, .293 AVG, .893 OPS
2nd: 40 PA, 1 RBI, .125 AVG, .325 OPS
3rd: 688 PA, .260 AVG, .761 OPS
4th: 44 PA, 3 RBI, .195 AVG, .618 OPS
5th: 626 PA, .268 AVG, .824 OPS

[Brock]

Soriano would hit like Soriano hits regardless of his position in the batting order.

Those stats Clapp posted are misleading, since you can basically throw out the "2" and "4" spots due to the small sample size and the overwhelming majority of at bats in the "3" spot were in 2004 when his overall numbers were not at the level that they have been since then.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=25452:date=Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM:name=Brock)-->QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano would hit like Soriano hits regardless of his position in the batting order.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He hasn't looked anything close to the same hitter when given the chance with the Cubs. Alf's mentally fragile and he's said countless times he wants to be the leadoff hitter and feels most comfortable there. We won 97 games this way last year, why mess with it?

[wcplummer]

<!--quoteo(post=25463:date=Mar 27 2009, 08:27 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 27 2009, 08:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25452:date=Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano would hit like Soriano hits regardless of his position in the batting order.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He hasn't looked anything close to the same hitter when given the chance with the Cubs. Alf's mentally fragile and he's said countless times he wants to be the leadoff hitter and feels most comfortable there. We won 97 games this way last year, why mess with it?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Because come playoffs you face good pitching and if your leadoff hitter is shit against good pitching you might as well as lost 97.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=25465:date=Mar 27 2009, 07:41 PM:name=wcplummer)-->QUOTE (wcplummer @ Mar 27 2009, 07:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25463:date=Mar 27 2009, 08:27 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 27 2009, 08:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25452:date=Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano would hit like Soriano hits regardless of his position in the batting order.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He hasn't looked anything close to the same hitter when given the chance with the Cubs. Alf's mentally fragile and he's said countless times he wants to be the leadoff hitter and feels most comfortable there. We won 97 games this way last year, why mess with it?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Because come playoffs you face good pitching and if your leadoff hitter is shit against good pitching you might as well as lost 97.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So if we bat Theriot 1st and Soriano 4th, all of a sudden we're going to be fine? We're talking about maybe 1 less at bat he gets.

Also, then where does Aramis bat? Unless Lee completely blows this year, he's going to be batting 3rd in his remaining time as a Cub. Would you really bat Aramis 6th? Because they're sure as hell not going to pay Alfonso 114 million over these next 6 years to bat 6th.

[wcplummer]

Theriot
Lee
Alf
Bradley
Aram
fuk
Soto
Fontenot

[Brock]

<!--quoteo(post=25463:date=Mar 27 2009, 08:27 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Mar 27 2009, 08:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=25452:date=Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM:name=Brock)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brock @ Mar 27 2009, 06:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano would hit like Soriano hits regardless of his position in the batting order.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He hasn't looked anything close to the same hitter when given the chance with the Cubs. Alf's mentally fragile and he's said countless times he wants to be the leadoff hitter and feels most comfortable there. We won 97 games this way last year, why mess with it?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm not even saying that I want him moved out of the leadoff spot. I'm saying that if he was moved he'd be just fine. Hitters abilities don't magically change depending on where they're hitting, IMO.

[wcplummer]

i'm kinda drunk so i'm not real sure what i think

[kbwsb]

The one Soriano-leadoff post that did make me think was Sipes's...the truth is, Alf <i>will</i> see more hackable pitches in the leadoff spot, at least from weaker teams.

In the playoffs, he will not see those pitches, and having a leadoff hitter who rarely
gets on base doesn't seem to be a playoff recipe for success, but maybe we'll pick up a legit leadoff guy by then. After all, there will be more "sellers" this year than ever before, and it's likely that the Cubs will be buyers. I harp on Hendry, but I freely admit that he's been very good at mid-season wheeling-and-dealing.

(btw, Scarey, I really liked your two posts too...you just lost me when you implied that our success hinged upon blind luck and "weird accidents." That's all fine and good, but I've always figured that it's smart to play the percentages.)

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=25443:date=Mar 27 2009, 05:52 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Mar 27 2009, 05:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't think Soriano can make the adjustment. It is not a matter of getting used to the spot in the lineup, but the type of pitches he sees. He is going to hack no matter what, so he need the heart of the order behind him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't buy that. If you know and I know that Soriano is going to be hacking no matter what, don't you think that every pitcher and catcher in baseball know that Soriano is going to be hacking no matter what? And if that's the case, why pitch differently to him no matter where he's batting in the order?

[Clapp]

But you're going to see more fastballs leading off the game. Rarely will a pitcher throw a breaking ball until a few pitches into the game. Soriano's a top 5 fastball hitter in baseball, he destroys them.

When Alf leads off the game...

698 plate apperances: 49 homers, .310/.352/.563/.975