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<!--quoteo(post=56230:date=Aug 7 2009, 07:26 AM:name=Ace)-->QUOTE (Ace @ Aug 7 2009, 07:26 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Ruby - I didn't know you thought there were any good Cubs blogs out there. Which ones do you like (serious question, not bait)?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't frequently read any of them, honestly. BCB can be good, yours is generally good, there's probably some others. They can all be hit or miss though, depending on the day. This one, if you read anything on there, is a consistent miss however. I think basic grammar and some attempt to actually understand what the stats mean, would be step in the right direction.
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<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Eisa5AZ20W0&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Eisa5AZ20W0&hl=en&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
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<!--quoteo(post=56196:date=Aug 6 2009, 10:20 PM:name=cubbieblue)-->QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 6 2009, 10:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano isn't the only player performing. This is the last paragraph of my friend's latest blog entry.
"Heilman and Gregg are being paid nearly $6 million and they are producing worse than someone the Cubs could find at AAA. Not to mention they are paying Gaudin, Vizcaino, and Cotts $5.4 million dollars to not pitch At least they aren’t hurting the team though. Combine that with the $23 million from Soriano and Bradley, the $2.2 miles is being paid to suck, and money from a few other players the Cubs are paying to not play for them, the Cubs are paying almost $39.5 million to players who have lost the Cubs 2 more games than a team of minimum wage replacements players theoretically would. That is more than the Marlins, Pirates, and Padres complete team salaries. And we wonder why this team can’t win with a $140 million dollar payroll."
You can see more of the data here:
http://onebadcentury.com/?p=57<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not trying to pile on here, but if we are going to be using WAR(P), doesn't the fact that Gregg has a 1.5 WARP1 completely destroy the idea that Gregg is producing "worse than someone could find at AAA"?
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
<!--quoteo(post=56228:date=Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56208:date=Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56201:date=Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Yikes, your "friend" is spending way too much time making blog posts that are poorly written, factually faulty, and completely convoluted.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, it is my friend's, not mine. And yes, I have helped him with it. I'm not denying that. I'm actually editing some of it as we speak. Do you have proof the facts are false? If so please let me know. I won't support something that is false. Hopefully it is a typo, not someone lying about facts to support a point (although I'm not sure what the exact point is).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's factually faulty because everything it's trying to "prove" is done so by using statistical metrics that are convoluted, then comparing them with other stats that are convoluted, and finally assigning a $$$ (for which there is basically no explanation) value to the players worth. It's also weighted with a fielding metric, every fielding metric is grossly faulty, even further negating anything written in the blog.
Honestly, do you think Randy Wells has been worth 2000% of what his entire season value is, after only 65% of the season has been played, and he's only been in the rotation for 3 months? He's had a nice season, but he's not giving the team value that's in the 10's of millions, that's just retarded (like the entire blog post).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans. I clearly took the wrong approach though. I should have never mentioned anything about the blog and just presented that specific info. That way it wasn't about how poorly written the blog was but about the stats themselves and their flaws or whatever. I apologize and will no longer link to or mention our blog in the future.
Ok, now to your points about the stats. If you want to know the explanation for the $$$ and players value go to this link at Fan Graphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
And UZR is a pretty good fielding metric. It isn't up to par with the greatest hitting metric (wOBA), but it is coming a long way and is by no means "grossy faulty."
And keep in mind this money is based on what they could make in free agency based on this season in a vacuum. I do believe it is a little high because it is based on research compiled from several seasons and because of the economy free agent price tags are going down and aren't what they were when say Ted Lilly got his $10 million.
But based purely on this season's numbers, at this point don't you think Wells could approach $10 million a year if he could test free agency this year? In real life he probably wouldn't because lots of people think this is a fluke and he won't be this good. But you can't account for a fluke when calculating things like this with a player who only has 1 year of MLB experience.
And again, sorry for even bringing up the actual blog itself. I will concede all the points that you make about what is wrong with the blog. From this point on can we stick to discussing the actual data? If it helps here is the page with all the stats on it. All he added in was the players salary and percent earned.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=C...009&month=0
<!--quoteo(post=56238:date=Aug 7 2009, 08:37 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Aug 7 2009, 08:37 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56196:date=Aug 6 2009, 10:20 PM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 6 2009, 10:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soriano isn't the only player performing. This is the last paragraph of my friend's latest blog entry.
"Heilman and Gregg are being paid nearly $6 million and they are producing worse than someone the Cubs could find at AAA. Not to mention they are paying Gaudin, Vizcaino, and Cotts $5.4 million dollars to not pitch At least they aren’t hurting the team though. Combine that with the $23 million from Soriano and Bradley, the $2.2 miles is being paid to suck, and money from a few other players the Cubs are paying to not play for them, the Cubs are paying almost $39.5 million to players who have lost the Cubs 2 more games than a team of minimum wage replacements players theoretically would. That is more than the Marlins, Pirates, and Padres complete team salaries. And we wonder why this team can’t win with a $140 million dollar payroll."
You can see more of the data here:
http://onebadcentury.com/?p=57<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not trying to pile on here, but if we are going to be using WAR(P), doesn't the fact that Gregg has a 1.5 WARP1 completely destroy the idea that Gregg is producing "worse than someone could find at AAA"?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And this is why I hate FIP. Gregg is absolutely killed by his high home run rate in FIP, which is the basis of the stats provided. I much prefer tRA. Later I should go through and redo the pitching numbers by using tRA vs lgtRA to calculate the RAA and then WAA and assigning the same dollar number per wins and see what I come up with there.
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dude, you hijacked my thread. this is suppose to be my rant on how much i hate Soriano. You messed it up with all this talk about WAR (shouldn't it be WARP) and UZR, WTF, and ROTFL.
<!--quoteo(post=56258:date=Aug 7 2009, 11:09 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 7 2009, 11:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->dude, you hijacked my thread. this is suppose to be my rant on how much i hate Soriano. You messed it up with all this talk about WAR (shouldn't it be WARP) and UZR, WTF, and ROTFL.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Lol, well, I was using stats to support your hatred. And I can't remember the formula, but while they essentially mean the same thing, WAR on Fan Graphs is calculated differently than the standard WARP (and WARP2, WARP3).
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<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And oh yeah, how do you explain this reply to me calling you out form pimping your blog?
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Thanks for the welcome. And as much as I would love to claim the blog, it really isn't mine. All I did was make a request for him to put together that article comparing Happ and Wells.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
*Hint - the explanation should include the words: I, and lied.
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<!--quoteo(post=56255:date=Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM:name=cubbieblue)-->QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56228:date=Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56208:date=Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56201:date=Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Yikes, your "friend" is spending way too much time making blog posts that are poorly written, factually faulty, and completely convoluted.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, it is my friend's, not mine. And yes, I have helped him with it. I'm not denying that. I'm actually editing some of it as we speak. Do you have proof the facts are false? If so please let me know. I won't support something that is false. Hopefully it is a typo, not someone lying about facts to support a point (although I'm not sure what the exact point is).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's factually faulty because everything it's trying to "prove" is done so by using statistical metrics that are convoluted, then comparing them with other stats that are convoluted, and finally assigning a $$$ (for which there is basically no explanation) value to the players worth. It's also weighted with a fielding metric, every fielding metric is grossly faulty, even further negating anything written in the blog.
Honestly, do you think Randy Wells has been worth 2000% of what his entire season value is, after only 65% of the season has been played, and he's only been in the rotation for 3 months? He's had a nice season, but he's not giving the team value that's in the 10's of millions, that's just retarded (like the entire blog post).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans. I clearly took the wrong approach though. I should have never mentioned anything about the blog and just presented that specific info. That way it wasn't about how poorly written the blog was but about the stats themselves and their flaws or whatever. I apologize and will no longer link to or mention our blog in the future.
Ok, now to your points about the stats. If you want to know the explanation for the $$$ and players value go to this link at Fan Graphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
And UZR is a pretty good fielding metric. It isn't up to par with the greatest hitting metric (wOBA), but it is coming a long way and is by no means "grossy faulty."
And keep in mind this money is based on what they could make in free agency based on this season in a vacuum. I do believe it is a little high because it is based on research compiled from several seasons and because of the economy free agent price tags are going down and aren't what they were when say Ted Lilly got his $10 million.
But based purely on this season's numbers, at this point don't you think Wells could approach $10 million a year if he could test free agency this year? In real life he probably wouldn't because lots of people think this is a fluke and he won't be this good. But you can't account for a fluke when calculating things like this with a player who only has 1 year of MLB experience.
And again, sorry for even bringing up the actual blog itself. I will concede all the points that you make about what is wrong with the blog. From this point on can we stick to discussing the actual data? If it helps here is the page with all the stats on it. All he added in was the players salary and percent earned.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=C...009&month=0
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If there was any actual data worth discussing in there, I'd be all over it. There's not though, so . . .
<!--quoteo(post=56262:date=Aug 7 2009, 11:15 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 7 2009, 11:15 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And oh yeah, how do you explain this reply to me calling you out form pimping your blog?
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Thanks for the welcome. And as much as I would love to claim the blog, it really isn't mine. All I did was make a request for him to put together that article comparing Happ and Wells.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
*Hint - the explanation should include the words: I, and lied.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, I did lie. I was wondering how long it would take for you to bring that back up. I should have said...actually, no need for me to speak anymore. We can leave it at I lied. No need for me to bring our blog out in public anymore. It sucks. It's more fun when its just for us to read.
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cubbieblue, i'd also like to say you are more than welcome here. i just don't really care about your blog. feel free to put a link in your sig and let people take a look at in their own time. but I really don't appreciate being lied to so you can continue to pimp said blog. stick around. post your thoughts. point out my irrational behavior. hell, you might even learn something.
<!--quoteo(post=56265:date=Aug 7 2009, 11:18 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56255:date=Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56228:date=Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56208:date=Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56201:date=Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Yikes, your "friend" is spending way too much time making blog posts that are poorly written, factually faulty, and completely convoluted.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, it is my friend's, not mine. And yes, I have helped him with it. I'm not denying that. I'm actually editing some of it as we speak. Do you have proof the facts are false? If so please let me know. I won't support something that is false. Hopefully it is a typo, not someone lying about facts to support a point (although I'm not sure what the exact point is).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's factually faulty because everything it's trying to "prove" is done so by using statistical metrics that are convoluted, then comparing them with other stats that are convoluted, and finally assigning a $$$ (for which there is basically no explanation) value to the players worth. It's also weighted with a fielding metric, every fielding metric is grossly faulty, even further negating anything written in the blog.
Honestly, do you think Randy Wells has been worth 2000% of what his entire season value is, after only 65% of the season has been played, and he's only been in the rotation for 3 months? He's had a nice season, but he's not giving the team value that's in the 10's of millions, that's just retarded (like the entire blog post).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans. I clearly took the wrong approach though. I should have never mentioned anything about the blog and just presented that specific info. That way it wasn't about how poorly written the blog was but about the stats themselves and their flaws or whatever. I apologize and will no longer link to or mention our blog in the future.
Ok, now to your points about the stats. If you want to know the explanation for the $$$ and players value go to this link at Fan Graphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
And UZR is a pretty good fielding metric. It isn't up to par with the greatest hitting metric (wOBA), but it is coming a long way and is by no means "grossy faulty."
And keep in mind this money is based on what they could make in free agency based on this season in a vacuum. I do believe it is a little high because it is based on research compiled from several seasons and because of the economy free agent price tags are going down and aren't what they were when say Ted Lilly got his $10 million.
But based purely on this season's numbers, at this point don't you think Wells could approach $10 million a year if he could test free agency this year? In real life he probably wouldn't because lots of people think this is a fluke and he won't be this good. But you can't account for a fluke when calculating things like this with a player who only has 1 year of MLB experience.
And again, sorry for even bringing up the actual blog itself. I will concede all the points that you make about what is wrong with the blog. From this point on can we stick to discussing the actual data? If it helps here is the page with all the stats on it. All he added in was the players salary and percent earned.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=C...009&month=0
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If there was any actual data worth discussing in there, I'd be all over it. There's not though, so . . .
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ok, then I will be getting out of this topic and trying to forget I ever posted in it. Too bad everyone else can't do the same [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif[/img]
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Is there a statistic that calculates the distance between "I was wondering how long it would take for you to bring that back up" and "I'm sorry?"
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<!--quoteo(post=56268:date=Aug 7 2009, 12:22 PM:name=cubbieblue)-->QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 7 2009, 12:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56265:date=Aug 7 2009, 11:18 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 11:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56255:date=Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 7 2009, 10:45 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56228:date=Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 7 2009, 06:59 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56208:date=Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM:name=cubbieblue)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cubbieblue @ Aug 6 2009, 10:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56201:date=Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Aug 6 2009, 09:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Yikes, your "friend" is spending way too much time making blog posts that are poorly written, factually faulty, and completely convoluted.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, it is my friend's, not mine. And yes, I have helped him with it. I'm not denying that. I'm actually editing some of it as we speak. Do you have proof the facts are false? If so please let me know. I won't support something that is false. Hopefully it is a typo, not someone lying about facts to support a point (although I'm not sure what the exact point is).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's factually faulty because everything it's trying to "prove" is done so by using statistical metrics that are convoluted, then comparing them with other stats that are convoluted, and finally assigning a $$$ (for which there is basically no explanation) value to the players worth. It's also weighted with a fielding metric, every fielding metric is grossly faulty, even further negating anything written in the blog.
Honestly, do you think Randy Wells has been worth 2000% of what his entire season value is, after only 65% of the season has been played, and he's only been in the rotation for 3 months? He's had a nice season, but he's not giving the team value that's in the 10's of millions, that's just retarded (like the entire blog post).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ok, to be honest and maybe clear things up, yes, this is a blog that I do run with 3 of my friends from college. This was written by another of the authors. He kind of thought the end info was cool, and so did I, and since no one reads our blog I kind of wanted to discuss it with other Cubs fans. I clearly took the wrong approach though. I should have never mentioned anything about the blog and just presented that specific info. That way it wasn't about how poorly written the blog was but about the stats themselves and their flaws or whatever. I apologize and will no longer link to or mention our blog in the future.
Ok, now to your points about the stats. If you want to know the explanation for the $$$ and players value go to this link at Fan Graphs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/glossary/
And UZR is a pretty good fielding metric. It isn't up to par with the greatest hitting metric (wOBA), but it is coming a long way and is by no means "grossy faulty."
And keep in mind this money is based on what they could make in free agency based on this season in a vacuum. I do believe it is a little high because it is based on research compiled from several seasons and because of the economy free agent price tags are going down and aren't what they were when say Ted Lilly got his $10 million.
But based purely on this season's numbers, at this point don't you think Wells could approach $10 million a year if he could test free agency this year? In real life he probably wouldn't because lots of people think this is a fluke and he won't be this good. But you can't account for a fluke when calculating things like this with a player who only has 1 year of MLB experience.
And again, sorry for even bringing up the actual blog itself. I will concede all the points that you make about what is wrong with the blog. From this point on can we stick to discussing the actual data? If it helps here is the page with all the stats on it. All he added in was the players salary and percent earned.
http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=C...009&month=0
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If there was any actual data worth discussing in there, I'd be all over it. There's not though, so . . .
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ok, then I will be getting out of this topic and trying to forget I ever posted in it. Too bad everyone else can't do the same [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad.gif[/img]
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You will soon learn it is not our nature to let things go. We can spend 50 pages talking about guys like Kyler Burke.
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