6 games left and the impact of Ramirez's injury

[Butcher]

Here we are, at the end of the season. Looking at the Cubs' record at this point and with the games remaining (6 games at home -- 3 against the Pirates, 3 against the D'Backs)...we could easily end the season 10 games over .500 (86-76). Nothing to write home about, sure...but not terrible either. So why does this feel like it has been such an atrocious season? Because expectations were so high? Because everyone just assumed we were automatically in the postseason again?

Anyway, I wanted to see what you guys think the impact of Ramirez's time off had on our overall record.

It looks like he'll miss half the season. How many wins did his absence cost us? Keep in mind that with him out, we played a lot of games with Fontenot at 3B and Miles at 2B. A few games with Fox at 3B and Fontenot at 2B. And some other combinations that I have purged from my memory...

Any guesses how many wins his absence cost us? 3? 4? Would it have been enough to give us the Wild Card? Or was there too much other crap working against us (Soto, Alf, Dempster's regression, our black hole at 2B, etc.)?

[1060Ivy]

You may have forgotten about the double header against the Pirates this Wednesday.

Cubs have 7 games remaining.

Take your choice: a healthy Aram, a more effective Gregg, never signing Miles, having a true lefty in the bullpen to start the season or sitting Alf more often as opposed to waiting for him to get hot; probably all would have lead the Cubs to being within spitting distance of the wildcard.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=64622:date=Sep 29 2009, 08:47 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 29 2009, 08:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Here we are, at the end of the season. Looking at the Cubs' record at this point and with the games remaining (6 games at home -- 3 against the Pirates, 3 against the D'Backs)...we could easily end the season 10 games over .500 (86-76). Nothing to write home about, sure...but not terrible either. So why does this feel like it has been such an atrocious season? Because expectations were so high? Because everyone just assumed we were automatically in the postseason again?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I was thinking about that yesterday. If we do win 85, which seems likely, it will be the first time since 1938 the Cubs won 85 or more games 3 years in a row and the first time in almost 40 years we even had 3 winning seasons in a row.

Probably doesn't make anyone feel better, but its a reminder that these are not our father's and grandfather's "lovable loser" Cubs. This has become a franchise that has winning seasons more times than not and expectations have gotten extremely high. We all expected to make the postseason and it obviously really sucks we didn't, but things could be a lot worse.

[Scarey]

I don't know that you can really say Dempster regressed. We all knew he played over his head last year, but we just didn't know by how much. He has a 3.68 ERA on the year and 3.14 ERA in his last 12 starts.

He did have a tough first half and a freak injury, but not a bad season at all. If he throws a 3.68 ERA next year, I'll be very pleased.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=64625:date=Sep 29 2009, 09:57 AM:name=1060Ivy)-->QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Sep 29 2009, 09:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You may have forgotten about the double header against the Pirates this Wednesday.

Cubs have 7 games remaining.

Take your choice: a healthy Aram, a more effective Gregg, never signing Miles, having a true lefty in the bullpen to start the season or sitting Alf more often as opposed to waiting for him to get hot; probably all would have lead the Cubs to being within spitting distance of the wildcard.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I did forget the double-header.

Damn it all to hell. This season really could have been better if just one or two things our way.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=64628:date=Sep 29 2009, 10:02 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Sep 29 2009, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't know that you can really say Dempster regressed. We all knew he played over his head last year, but we just didn't know by how much. He has a 3.68 ERA on the year and 3.14 ERA in his last 12 starts.

He did have a tough first half and a freak injury, but not a bad season at all. If he throws a 3.68 ERA next year, I'll be very pleased.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yeah, but he sucked ass when the team was struggling and really needed him (and others).

You're right, though...his season as a whole will look pretty solid when it's all said and done.

[rok]

None of this matters to me. The past month tells me nothing aside from the fact that we can beat crappy teams. Had we avoided some, not all, of the injuries we'd be looking at close to 90 wins, but probably still would miss the playoffs. I'm not even sure what to make of this team next season. It might be more of the same unless we address 2B, SS and CF/RF. That's a lot to address.

[Fella]

I do think Ramirez injury had a HUGE impact. We lost so many close low scoring games back in May and June, we couldn't hit at all and had the worst half of baseball with RISP in decades. If we had our best hitter and RBI man for all those games, I really think we would have pulled some of them out. Seriously how many games did we lose in the first half 2-0 or 2-1 when we left like 10 guys in scoring position.

People always say "one guy wouldn't make a difference" but I think that's bullshit, take Pujols off the Cardinals and see how many runs they score. .... and yeah I know Ramirez is not Pujols but he is the best we have. Especially the way we were losing games, I can't help but think we would could have won 4 or 5 more games with him around. Maybe more if you believe in the "hitting is contagious" philosophy.

[1060Ivy]

<!--quoteo(post=64631:date=Sep 29 2009, 10:06 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Sep 29 2009, 10:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->None of this matters to me. The past month tells me nothing aside from the fact that we can beat crappy teams.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Remember the shitty teams that the Cubs beat in 2008. The schedule in 2008 had us play some more bad teams - Pirates, Nats, etc - in the first half of the year than the second half. The Cubs had momentum heading into the second half of the season and lead to us trading for Harden.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=64633:date=Sep 29 2009, 10:08 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Sep 29 2009, 10:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I do think Ramirez injury had a HUGE impact. We lost so many close low scoring games back in May and June, we couldn't hit at all and had the worst half of baseball with RISP in decades. If we had our best hitter and RBI man for all those games, I really think we would have pulled some of them out. Seriously how many games did we lose in the first half 2-0 or 2-1 when we left like 10 guys in scoring position.

People always say "one guy wouldn't make a difference" but I think that's bullshit, take Pujols off the Cardinals and see how many runs they score. .... and yeah I know Ramirez is not Pujols but he is the best we have. Especially the way we were losing games, I can't help but think we would could have won 4 or 5 more games with him around. Maybe more if you believe in the "hitting is contagious" philosophy.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm with you. Ramirez completely changes our lineup. And with Lee having such a great year, hitting them back-to-back would have been huge. I'm thinking 4 extra wins at the very least.

And you take Pujols off the Cardinals and they're a .500 team, at best. No doubt about that -- I don't care what WAR or VORP says.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=64633:date=Sep 29 2009, 10:08 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Sep 29 2009, 10:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I do think Ramirez injury had a HUGE impact. We lost so many close low scoring games back in May and June, we couldn't hit at all and had the worst half of baseball with RISP in decades. If we had our best hitter and RBI man for all those games, I really think we would have pulled some of them out. Seriously how many games did we lose in the first half 2-0 or 2-1 when we left like 10 guys in scoring position.

People always say "one guy wouldn't make a difference" but I think that's bullshit, take Pujols off the Cardinals and see how many runs they score. .... and yeah I know Ramirez is not Pujols but he is the best we have. Especially the way we were losing games, I can't help but think we would could have won 4 or 5 more games with him around. Maybe more if you believe in the "hitting is contagious" philosophy.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Yeah, I always think it's funny to see stats like VORP used and people tell me that Ramirez only give's the Cubs 1 or 2 wins more. There's just no way to tell and no way to put value of a guy like Ramirez in the lineup. He changes the opposing pitcher's approach to the whole lineup.

There's plenty that went wrong for the Cubs this year, but I think the Ramirez injury is far and away the most detrimental.

[Coach]

Leading the league in walk-off losses also hurts.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=64640:date=Sep 29 2009, 10:17 AM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 29 2009, 10:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Leading the league in walk-off losses also hurts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It absolutely kills. Those losses were emotionally backbreaking. Kevin Gregg was a disaster.

[Coach]

<!--quoteo(post=64641:date=Sep 29 2009, 11:19 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 29 2009, 11:19 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=64640:date=Sep 29 2009, 10:17 AM:name=Coach)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 29 2009, 10:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Leading the league in walk-off losses also hurts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It absolutely kills. Those losses were emotionally backbreaking. Kevin Gregg was a disaster.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm thinking that we had like 14 or 15.

[Ace]

Although I think Soriano's hilariously awful season has been worse than the Ramirez injury, there's no doubt that missing Aram cost at least three to four games.