Hendry and middle relievers

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=88243:date=Apr 12 2010, 08:17 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Apr 12 2010, 08:17 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88205:date=Apr 11 2010, 10:09 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 11 2010, 10:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88042:date=Apr 11 2010, 08:05 AM:name=Ace)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Ace @ Apr 11 2010, 08:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88036:date=Apr 11 2010, 03:01 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 11 2010, 03:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just so I have this straight:

-Hendry is an idiot for signing a veteran like Grabow to a contract that is fairly consistent with the market for veteran left handers, because it's stupid to overpay for veterans.
-Hendry is also an idiot for NOT signing enough veterans, so we are stuck depending on our rookie relievers.
-Hendry is also an idiot for not signing a guy who couldn't make the freaking METS bullpen, and is currently toiling in the minors.

So don't sign veterans, don't rely on rookies, and for God's sake, the answer to our bullpen problems clearly resides on the Mets AAA roster.


Got it.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

It's just the first two. And for the first one, no one else believes Grabow's contract is consistent with what he would have gotten on the open market this season.

Those are the reasons, among others unrelated to the bullpen, Hendry is an idiot.

Got it?
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Since I am the ONLY person in the world that thinks Grabow's contract was pretty consistent to what others were getting this off season, what do you think Grabow would get on the open market? Bear in mind Latroy Hawkins got 7.5 million for 2 years, Rafael Betancourt got 7.5 million for 2 years, and Brandon Lyon got 15 million for 3 years. They are all right handed, and left handers tend to get bigger contracts. How does Grabow's contract NOT fit into that market?

does that make the Grabow signing a good one? No, but people on this board act like the pulled a guy out of the Taco Bell drive thru and handed him 7.5 million dollars.

In truth, I would rather we didn't spend a lot of money on middle relief. However, I also understand that if you decide to go the "fill the slots from your minor leagues" route, that the end result could easily be what we've seen so far. That's the risk.
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The major difference with Grabow and the rest of those guys is that Grabow had a year left of arbitration. He wasn't a FA, couldn't test the market. We could have just offered him arb. and only be on the hook for his services for this year. With middle relievers as volatile as they are it makes no sense to sign someone for two years when you already have him for one. Plus, Grabow has been wildly inconsistent (volatile) in his career and the Cubs had limited funds for FA this offseason. BAD. SIGNING for the Cubs.
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What, exactly, is your argument? Are you saying the Cubs NEVER should have signed Grabow? Are you saying that they should have let him go to arbitration, and signed him for one year?

If you are arguing that they never should have signed Grabow, fine. But bear in mind we would be filling that spot with ANOTHER kid from AAA. Or we would have signed another free agent, who, by your definition, would be a "volatile" pitcher, since he would be a middle reliever.

If you are arguing that they should have let him go to arbitration, fine. But your argument falls apart after that. Grabow made 2.3 million for the Pirates (which is probably the middle between what the Pirates were offering and Grabow was asking for in Arb last year). Therefore I can almost guarantee you that he was in line for 3 million or more in arbitration this year, as those numbers go up fairly significantly each year if they don't shit the bed. The Cubs are only paying him 2.7 million this year, which I can almost (again) guarantee you is less than would have resulted in an arbitration hearing. So the Cubs SAVED money for FA this season by signing him (next year, the numbers go up, but the Cubs have money coming off the books).

If you wanted Grabow on the team this year, and the 2010 budget was your main concern, then the Cubs did the right thing. If you didn't want Grabow on the team, we would be going with another volatile free agent signing or an unproven rookie. Those are your (and obviously Jim Hendry's) choices.

[Fella]

Except that a lot of pitchers who have similar numbers to Grabow ended up signing 1 year low dollar contracts or even got minor league deals because the free agent market collapsed for the 2nd year in a row.

Hendry's biggest mistake two years in a row now was signing a guy very early for a high dollar amount, then watching the market collapse. Had he learned his lesson last year, he could have signed 3 guys with similar career paths as Grabow for the same amount as he signed only 1.
He probably could have even signed Grabow still, for half the price.

Guys like Calero, Weathers, Park, Capps, Beimel and others all were reported to have interest in the Cubs and the Cubs in them but we had no money and they went elsewhere or didn't even get a contract at all. All of them got WAY less than Grabow.

[Coldneck]

<!--quoteo(post=88252:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Except that a lot of pitchers who have similar numbers to Grabow ended up signing 1 year low dollar contracts or even got minor league deals because the free agent market collapsed for the 2nd year in a row.

Hendry's biggest mistake two years in a row now was signing a guy very early for a high dollar amount, then watching the market collapse. Had he learned his lesson last year, he could have signed 3 guys with similar career paths as Grabow for the same amount as he signed only 1.
He probably could have even signed Grabow still, for half the price.

Guys like Calero, Weathers, Park, Capps, Beimel and others all were reported to have interest in the Cubs and the Cubs in them but we had no money and they went elsewhere or didn't even get a contract at all. All of them got WAY less than Grabow.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
BT, this. Fella is smarter, better looking, and definitely more eloquent than I.

Generally, I think Grabow is a run of the mill middle reliever. A dime a dozen. There are lots of guys like him and he's making more money than he should for one too many years.

[BT]

The Cubs could NOT sign Grabow for less. They could either offer him arbitration or let him go. If they offered him arbitration, they would be paying him more money in 2010 than they are paying him now. That's almost inarguable.

Yes, the Cubs could have cut Grabow, and signed Kiko Calero or David Weathers (Capps signed for more than Grabow). Put aside Calero can't make the Mets (who don't exactly have the 1990 Reds bullpen pitching for them) and Weathers (as far as I know) can't make ANY TEAM IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES. Even if they did sign these guys, they would have had exactly one half of one lefty in their pen. Sean Marshall. If Silva and Gorzelany shit the bed in spring training (which I'm sure many here thought they would), and Marshall had to start, the Cubs would enter 2010 without a left handed reliever in their bullpen.

The only guy from Fella's post that makes any sense is Beimel. that's it. Therefore, for Jim Hendry to not be a fucking moron, he would have had to do the following:

-Assume the market for relievers would be buyer friendly, despite the signings of Hawkins, Betancourt, and Lyons for similar deals to Grabow.

-CUT Grabow, despite not having a single veteran lefty in the pen

-know ahead of time Silva and Gorzelany would be good enough that Marshall wouldn't be needed in the pen

-or, be confident enough that Russel would do well enough to make the team (although we haven't the foggiest idea how well he will do)

-or, be confident that Joe Beimel wasn't going to get a contract in line with the money everyone else was making.

-His master stroke would then be to sign a guy that literally, no other major league team in existence thinks is good enough to pitch for them.

I'm not saying that Hendry couldn't have done anything better. It's conceivable he could have cut Grabow and put together a decent bullpen. But you guys have him jumping through so many hoops it's comical, all in order to save some minuscule amount of money from the Grabow signing.

Grabow has been bad. If he continues to be bad, then it's a terrible signing. If he pitches roughly the same way he has for the rest of his career, then AT WORST, Hendry has pissed away 2 million over 2 years, MAYBE.

Yet we will still spend thread after thread decrying the tragedy of the Grabow signing, while at the same time spending thread after thread moaning about the inordinate amount of rookies in the bullpen.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=88262:date=Apr 12 2010, 08:26 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Apr 12 2010, 08:26 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The Cubs could NOT sign Grabow for less. They could either offer him arbitration or let him go. If they offered him arbitration, they would be paying him more money in 2010 than they are paying him now. That's almost inarguable.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Like I said in a previous post. Coldneck was wrong about Grabow still being an arbitration guy. He was not. He was a free agent. Its very possible that the cubs could have waited a couple months and signed him for less.

And the only reason I would care about that is so there would have been money to sign/trade for someone else.

[Coach]

<!--quoteo(post=88252:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Except that a lot of pitchers who have similar numbers to Grabow ended up signing 1 year low dollar contracts or even got minor league deals because the free agent market collapsed for the 2nd year in a row.

Hendry's biggest mistake two years in a row now was signing a guy very early for a high dollar amount, then watching the market collapse. Had he learned his lesson last year, he could have signed 3 guys with similar career paths as Grabow for the same amount as he signed only 1.
He probably could have even signed Grabow still, for half the price.

Guys like Calero, Weathers, Park, Capps, Beimel and others all were reported to have interest in the Cubs and the Cubs in them but we had no money and they went elsewhere or didn't even get a contract at all. All of them got WAY less than Grabow.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Right on.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=88254:date=Apr 12 2010, 08:57 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Apr 12 2010, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88252:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Except that a lot of pitchers who have similar numbers to Grabow ended up signing 1 year low dollar contracts or even got minor league deals because the free agent market collapsed for the 2nd year in a row.

Hendry's biggest mistake two years in a row now was signing a guy very early for a high dollar amount, then watching the market collapse. Had he learned his lesson last year, he could have signed 3 guys with similar career paths as Grabow for the same amount as he signed only 1.
He probably could have even signed Grabow still, for half the price.

Guys like Calero, Weathers, Park, Capps, Beimel and others all were reported to have interest in the Cubs and the Cubs in them but we had no money and they went elsewhere or didn't even get a contract at all. All of them got WAY less than Grabow.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
BT, this. Fella is smarter, better looking, and definitely more eloquent than I.

Generally, I think Grabow is a run of the mill middle reliever. A dime a dozen. There are lots of guys like him and he's making more money than he should for one too many years.
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You're better looking than fella.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=88274:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:33 AM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 12 2010, 09:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88254:date=Apr 12 2010, 08:57 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Apr 12 2010, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88252:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Except that a lot of pitchers who have similar numbers to Grabow ended up signing 1 year low dollar contracts or even got minor league deals because the free agent market collapsed for the 2nd year in a row.

Hendry's biggest mistake two years in a row now was signing a guy very early for a high dollar amount, then watching the market collapse. Had he learned his lesson last year, he could have signed 3 guys with similar career paths as Grabow for the same amount as he signed only 1.
He probably could have even signed Grabow still, for half the price.

Guys like Calero, Weathers, Park, Capps, Beimel and others all were reported to have interest in the Cubs and the Cubs in them but we had no money and they went elsewhere or didn't even get a contract at all. All of them got WAY less than Grabow.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
BT, this. Fella is smarter, better looking, and definitely more eloquent than I.

Generally, I think Grabow is a run of the mill middle reliever. A dime a dozen. There are lots of guys like him and he's making more money than he should for one too many years.
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You're better looking than fella.
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[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img] I'm not sure I've seen neck before, but I'm sure he is. Unless you love fat guys.

[rok]

I was indifferent toward the Grabow signing, and still am. I don't think having him in the pen, even at his generous salary, is the worst thing in the world, as long as he is used properly. However, relying on him to be the primary setup man, and having Caridad be his RH counterpart was bad thinking. This falls squarely on Hendry. I know you couldn't predict the Guzman injury, but then again, depending on Guzman to be durable was risky business as well.

[Coldneck]

<!--quoteo(post=88275:date=Apr 12 2010, 11:38 AM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Apr 12 2010, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88274:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:33 AM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 12 2010, 09:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88254:date=Apr 12 2010, 08:57 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Apr 12 2010, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88252:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM:name=Fella)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Fella @ Apr 12 2010, 09:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Except that a lot of pitchers who have similar numbers to Grabow ended up signing 1 year low dollar contracts or even got minor league deals because the free agent market collapsed for the 2nd year in a row.

Hendry's biggest mistake two years in a row now was signing a guy very early for a high dollar amount, then watching the market collapse. Had he learned his lesson last year, he could have signed 3 guys with similar career paths as Grabow for the same amount as he signed only 1.
He probably could have even signed Grabow still, for half the price.

Guys like Calero, Weathers, Park, Capps, Beimel and others all were reported to have interest in the Cubs and the Cubs in them but we had no money and they went elsewhere or didn't even get a contract at all. All of them got WAY less than Grabow.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
BT, this. Fella is smarter, better looking, and definitely more eloquent than I.

Generally, I think Grabow is a run of the mill middle reliever. A dime a dozen. There are lots of guys like him and he's making more money than he should for one too many years.
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You're better looking than fella.
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[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img] I'm not sure I've seen neck before, but I'm sure he is. Unless you love fat guys.
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I'm somewhat plump as well. I've heard you got a purty mouth.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=88194:date=Apr 11 2010, 07:26 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Apr 11 2010, 07:26 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88190:date=Apr 11 2010, 07:19 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 11 2010, 07:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=88171:date=Apr 11 2010, 03:56 PM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Apr 11 2010, 03:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><b>Once Samardzija and Berg are sent down for Parker and Cashner, the pen will work itself out just fine.</b> Also, I personally don't think you can have such a dramatic turnover in your bullpen and expect to be automatically lights out from game one. There's an adjustment period. Lou will learn how to pitch these guys and I have confidence that the young pitchers will find their groove.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You have absolutely no idea if either Parker or Cashner will be effective. I'm not saying they don't -appear- to be better options, but they could each suck, and big time. There's no completely obvious in-house solutions with the pen.
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I don't know what your point is here. It's a prediction, it's not as if I'm saying I know better than Lou, Hendry, Rothschild, etc.

I personally believe that Berg and Samardzija shouldn't be in the pen. Berg had a pretty ERA last year, but his peripherals were very mediocre. The only reason Samardzija is in the pen is because he lost out to Silva and Gorzelanny for a rotation spot. I have more faith in Parker and Cashner because of their pedigree and their results in the minors. They both happen to be in a good position to jump up from the minors too.

When it all boils down to it though, my prediction isn't anything more than Joe Blow from such-and-such blog predicting the Braves will win the NL East, and I never meant it to be anything more than that.
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Oh, I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying we don't know until they're actually given the chance, which I agree they deserve.

The thing is this is all perfectly fine if it's 1 or 2 guys we're not sure about and we could surely find people to fill those roles as the year goes along. However, it's like 4 spots we're still up in the air about in the bullpen. If we spend the next few months trying to figure out who are the best guys for all those spots, it might be too late for it to matter. I'm just saying, what if Parker and Cashner each look crappy as well? There's just too many unknowns for me here.

[Butcher]

Everything about this team has been mediocre to poor except the starting pitching.

I'm not sure what Hendry is supposed to do to fix the bullpen at this stage of the game. It's way too early in the season for anyone to be in "sell" mode. Hopefully bringing Lilly back and putting Gorz in the pen and shipping Shark off will help some. Other than that, what is the solution?

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=88276:date=Apr 12 2010, 09:38 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Apr 12 2010, 09:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I was indifferent toward the Grabow signing, and still am. I don't think having him in the pen, even at his generous salary, is the worst thing in the world, as long as he is used properly. However, relying on him to be the primary setup man, and having Caridad be his RH counterpart was bad thinking. This falls squarely on Hendry. I know you couldn't predict the Guzman injury, but then again, depending on Guzman to be durable was risky business as well.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Exactly. Grabow got too much money, but I'm fine with the signing. While his stats showed he overachieved the last couple of years, he still did a solid job. I still think he'll have an alright year. But him being your #1 setup man? Yikes. I mean I was picturing him there with Guzman and others. And you're exactly right about Guzman, we couldn't trust him to stay healthy and be there for sure. Proven depth was needed, aside from just Grabow.

[Coldneck]

I'm ready for Shark to negotiate his release and go back to catching footballs.

[rok]

Yeah, maybe we can strike gold with a minor league call-up from one of Diamond, Cashner or whoever-the-fuck-else when Lilly comes back and the pen gets re-shuffled again, but I think we're stuck with this group and have to make the best of it for a while. It's gonna suck, that's for sure, and unless we start hitting anytime soon, will only get worse with all these close games.