Clutchness

[ruby23]

Anyone that thinks the trait of being clutch doesn't exist is fucking wrong. It may not be quantifiable, but it most certainly exists and this team has none of it. Goodnight.

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=97786:date=May 21 2010, 10:01 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ May 21 2010, 10:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Anyone that thinks the trait of being clutch doesn't exist is fucking wrong. It may not be quantifiable, but it most certainly exists and this team has none of it. Goodnight.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Very little...not enough...but not none. Rami hit that 2 run walk-off.

[1060Ivy]

<!--quoteo(post=97787:date=May 21 2010, 10:12 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ May 21 2010, 10:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=97786:date=May 21 2010, 10:01 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ May 21 2010, 10:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Anyone that thinks the trait of being clutch doesn't exist is fucking wrong. It may not be quantifiable, but it most certainly exists and this team has none of it. Goodnight.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Very little...not enough...but not none. Rami hit that 2 run walk-off.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That play was after Aramis stranded Castro on third in the 9th in the same game but before Aramis struck out with Soriano on 3rd on Thursday.

Aramis used to Clutchy McClutcherson but just hasn't been himself this year.

[rok]

Aramis has also had a bad finger for at least a week. He started to look better at the plate recently, but then that happened.

And I'm not going to get into the argument about clutchness, but I think the best way for me to define it is the ability to maintain your averages in high pressure situations. I know it varies from year to year, but to deny that certain players crumble under pressure, while others don't flinch, is just wrong IMO. It is very real.

[funkster]

Agreed....I don't care what the hardcore stats guys say. And yes, this team has almost none.

[Ace]

Should something like BA with RISP in close and late situations be it? Maybe add in home runs? I'm sure some mathlete could come up with something.

[Ace]

And the thing is, like it or lump it, I bet if you came up with such a stat, you'd see nothing meaningful. The "good" hitters would have a "good" clutch stat over a large enough sample. Some guys would be uber "clutch" one year, and then back down to earth the next year.

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=97816:date=May 22 2010, 04:10 PM:name=Ace)-->QUOTE (Ace @ May 22 2010, 04:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->And the thing is, like it or lump it, I bet if you came up with such a stat, you'd see nothing meaningful. The "good" hitters would have a "good" clutch stat over a large enough sample. Some guys would be uber "clutch" one year, and then back down to earth the next year.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's <i>exactly</i> the case. That's why the mathletes you mention don't believe that it's a tangible thing. It just seems that way, from visual observance.
Comparing A-Rod and Jeter's post-season stats is instructive. One's supposed to be Mr. Clutch, the other's supposed to be the ultimate choker, but last time I looked, A-Rod's stats were actually <i>better</i>. Not just as good. Better. Not just in their career post-season stats, but in late-game, clutch situations, too.

For the Cubs, a good example is our 3rd baseman. Aramis has always seemed "clutch." That' because he's always been the best hitter on the team (or one of them). Now he's hitting under .200, and he seems less clutch.

[satchel]

ha, i was going to write a topic like this yesterday... this team cannot hit in the clutch, even those actually hitting good like byrd and soriano have fucked it up when the cubs really needed a hit..

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=97801:date=May 22 2010, 11:44 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ May 22 2010, 11:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->And I'm not going to get into the argument about clutchness, but I think the best way for me to define it is the ability to maintain your averages in high pressure situations. I know it varies from year to year, but to deny that certain players crumble under pressure, while others don't flinch, is just wrong IMO. It is very real.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yep.

[kbwsb]

From an interview with Joe Posnanski on Slate.com:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Question: In the course of working on the book, I read about a couple of psychologists who studied the so-called "hot hand" in basketball—the idea that players who are hot keep hitting baskets and players who are cold keep missing them. No matter how they crunched the stats, it turned out that the phenomenon didn't exist, but they couldn't get anyone to believe them. As I recall, they took it to Red Auerbach and Bobby Knight and both of them were like, "Who the hell are you and what do you know about sports?"

Posnanski: <b>That's a big, big issue in sports, that attitude. There's an interesting fight going on in baseball about <!--coloro:#2E8B57--><!--/coloro-->whether clutch hitting exists<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: whether a player can hit better in the ninth inning when there are two runs on, whether he can be a better player when the game is on the line. And once again, t<!--coloro:#2E8B57--><!--/coloro-->here have been countless studies done on it, and not one of them can find any statistical evidence that any person is capable of lifting his game in such moments.<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->
Yet people continue to believe, and they continue to get angry that anyone would suggest that such a thing doesn't exist. It's like, <!--coloro:#2E8B57--><!--/coloro-->"I know it exists because I've seen it."<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc--> That's such a big part of sports. And that's one of the great things about Bill [James, the inventor of sabermetrics, a statistical method of analyzing baseball] who basically found out that just about everything anybody believes about baseball isn't true. And because of that a whole lot of people are very, very angry at him.</b>

Question: There's something pretty touching about people's desire to believe in clutch hitting. I think part of why people can't bear to imagine that it doesn't exist is because it says something to us about the human spirit: that we can be better than our everyday selves, we can rise to the occasion.

Posnanski: <b>Right. You know, there are certain things that just make life more fun. They might be totally wrong, they might be totally untrue, but they make baseball more interesting, they make football more interesting, they make everything more interesting. It's more fun to believe that the guy got the hit in the ninth inning not because statistically it was his turn but because there was something about him in that moment, some kind of sports courage, that helped him do it. That makes sports a whole lot more fun to watch.
<!--coloro:#2E8B57--><!--/coloro-->So I really do understand where this kind of superstition and stubbornness comes from.<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc--> I also think that at a certain point when you're looking at plain facts and refusing to see them, that's not very good for you or for the world</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

<!--quoteo(post=98100:date=May 24 2010, 05:41 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ May 24 2010, 05:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->It's more fun to believe that the guy got the hit in the ninth inning not because statistically it was his turn<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I know these aren't your words, KB, but statistical determinism is every bit as much of bunk as "clutchness" is.

[rok]

That's sort of twisting the idea of what "clutch" means to most thinking people IMO. I've always believed, more than anything, that it implies that a player doesn't crumble under pressure. Nothing more nothing less. To apply these ridiculous standards to "clutchness" is putting words in people's mouths. No one is saying that a clutch ballplayer rises above and beyond their normal averages, but to imply that certain players DON'T underachieve in certain situations is short-sighted as well, isn't it? To treat every situation as equal to another is statistically dishonest. That is true in sports and in life.

Why even bother with situational stats then? Should we throw them all away?

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=98104:date=May 24 2010, 03:48 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 03:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98100:date=May 24 2010, 05:41 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ May 24 2010, 05:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->It's more fun to believe that the guy got the hit in the ninth inning not because statistically it was his turn<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I know these aren't your words, KB, but statistical determinism is every bit as much of bunk as "clutchness" is.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yep

Statistically his turn? for real? c'mon... thats fucking ridiculous.

All pitchers have different stuff all hitters have strengths and weaknesses, they aren't robots programed to get a hit approximately 30% of the time.

I love stats almost as much as anyone and think they are the best way to determine a player's value, but when you start pretending the game is played with dice, you are a lot worse than the people who believe in clutch.

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=98104:date=May 24 2010, 04:48 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 04:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98100:date=May 24 2010, 05:41 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ May 24 2010, 05:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->It's more fun to believe that the guy got the hit in the ninth inning not because statistically it was his turn<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I know these aren't your words, KB, but statistical determinism is every bit as much of bunk as "clutchness" is.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's not determinism, it's playing the percentages. In a "clutch" situation, the guys who perform better are the guys who hit better. (given enough examples to eliminate small sample size).

So in a clutch situation, you'd rather have Tony Gwynn or Ryne Sandberg up to bat than Neifi Perez, even though Neifi once hit a game-winning pinch-hit grand slam in the 10th inning to beat the reigning NL champion Cardinals. (and I saw it with my own eyes...it was very, very "clutch").

But it doesn't mean he was a "clutch hitter." It means, like a good professional, he pounced on a mistake, and it happened to be in the 10th inning, instead of the 4th.