Posts: 3,165
Threads: 12
Joined: Feb 2009
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98164:date=May 24 2010, 10:34 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 10:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98163:date=May 24 2010, 09:32 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 09:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98162:date=May 24 2010, 10:29 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 10:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98160:date=May 24 2010, 09:23 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 09:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98159:date=May 24 2010, 10:21 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 10:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->It's not statistically his <i>turn</i> to swing a cold bat.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Argle-bargle.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, the idea of a statistical turn is gobbledegook. That's what I'm saying. Statistics are good. They're useful. You can determine when an event is statistically due, historically speaking but you sure as hell can't use statistics to predict events.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Oh, I get it now. You were saying that it's not that it's statistically his turn to swing his bat. Sorry, gotcha, I dig.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Right. Hot and cold exist. Streaks happen. But they exist because of factors. There are causes, not just the fulfillment of a statistical likelihood.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
We're tracking.
One dick can poke an eye out. A hundred dicks can move mountains.
--Veryzer
Posts: 8,024
Threads: 100
Joined: Jun 2009
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98165:date=May 24 2010, 09:36 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 09:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98164:date=May 24 2010, 10:34 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 10:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98163:date=May 24 2010, 09:32 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 09:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98162:date=May 24 2010, 10:29 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 10:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98160:date=May 24 2010, 09:23 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 09:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98159:date=May 24 2010, 10:21 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 10:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->It's not statistically his <i>turn</i> to swing a cold bat.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Argle-bargle.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes, the idea of a statistical turn is gobbledegook. That's what I'm saying. Statistics are good. They're useful. You can determine when an event is statistically due, historically speaking but you sure as hell can't use statistics to predict events.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Oh, I get it now. You were saying that it's not that it's statistically his turn to swing his bat. Sorry, gotcha, I dig.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Right. Hot and cold exist. Streaks happen. But they exist because of factors. There are causes, not just the fulfillment of a statistical likelihood.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
We're tracking.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You complete me...statistically speaking.
Posts: 11,677
Threads: 387
Joined: Oct 2008
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98159:date=May 24 2010, 09:21 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 09:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->It's this simple. If you believe in coldness you can't reasonably <i>not </i>believe in hotness. Rami is swinging a cold bat. It's not statistically his <i>turn</i> to swing a cold bat. The vast array of things that all contribute to good hitting are not coming together. It's mechanical...or between his ears...or whatever. Swinging a hot bat...and swinging it in clutch situations is when those things <i>are</i> coming together.
A career .230 hitter probably hit somewhere near .230 for any given stretch of time. But he also probably raked at a .320 clip for a couple of months somewhere in a career and stats won't tell you what caused that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He's hitting in the .100s because he isn't seeing the ball well or his bat is slow or his timing is off or there's a hitch in his swing or his skills are in massive decline (or something like that). If you'd like to define that as "cold," then that's fine. It has nothing to do with "clutch" (or lack thereof), though.
I think we're talking about different things, though.
Posts: 8,024
Threads: 100
Joined: Jun 2009
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98167:date=May 24 2010, 09:38 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ May 24 2010, 09:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98159:date=May 24 2010, 09:21 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 24 2010, 09:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->It's this simple. If you believe in coldness you can't reasonably <i>not </i>believe in hotness. Rami is swinging a cold bat. It's not statistically his <i>turn</i> to swing a cold bat. The vast array of things that all contribute to good hitting are not coming together. It's mechanical...or between his ears...or whatever. Swinging a hot bat...and swinging it in clutch situations is when those things <i>are</i> coming together.
A career .230 hitter probably hit somewhere near .230 for any given stretch of time. But he also probably raked at a .320 clip for a couple of months somewhere in a career and stats won't tell you what caused that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He's hitting in the .100s because he isn't seeing the ball well or his bat is slow or his timing is off or there's a hitch in his swing or his skills are in massive decline (or something like that). If you'd like to define that as "cold," then that's fine. It has nothing to do with "clutch" (or lack thereof), though.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think it has a lot to do with it. I think it's simply the inverse example. Everything is wrong. That's unusual. Everything being right is unusual too. When everything's right, he's a guy that you have confidence in. I don't think you find examples of guys that are hitting .160 but are still reliable with 2 on and 2 out in the bottom of the ninth. A clutch guy is a guy that's performing. Couple that with the confidence that performing breeds an a guy is gonna be cooler in a pressure situation.
Posts: 8,024
Threads: 100
Joined: Jun 2009
Reputation:
0
You know, DiMaggio hit safely in 56 consecutive games in his <i>second best</i> year at the plate. Hotness exists. For some portion of those 56 days, Joe DiMaggio was hitting better than Joe DiMaggio hit during Joe DiMaggio's best year. Does coldness exist? His streak ran from the middle of May to the Middle of July. He had to have quite a drop off for '41 to wind up his second best year.
Posts: 11,677
Threads: 387
Joined: Oct 2008
Reputation:
0
I don't disagree with any of that. However, most of that is not what people are talking about when they talk about being clutch.
Posts: 3,165
Threads: 12
Joined: Feb 2009
Reputation:
0
I could have sworn that this is what straw's concept of Clutch would be:
![[Image: clutch_cargo.jpg]](http://www.bbemuseum.com/museum/images/clutch_cargo.jpg)
One dick can poke an eye out. A hundred dicks can move mountains.
--Veryzer
Posts: 8,024
Threads: 100
Joined: Jun 2009
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98171:date=May 24 2010, 10:40 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ May 24 2010, 10:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't disagree with any of that. However, most of that is not what people are talking about when they talk about being clutch.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I know it's kind of a tangent but if Posnanski (incidentally, one of my favorite baseball writers) is going to support a belief that statistics bust the myth of the hot hand, I'm gonna call BS. I want to see the stats that allegedly do this.
Posts: 8,024
Threads: 100
Joined: Jun 2009
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98172:date=May 24 2010, 10:47 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ May 24 2010, 10:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I could have sworn that this is what straw's concept of Clutch would be:
<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He got a purty mouth.
Posts: 1,792
Threads: 49
Joined: Dec 2008
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98171:date=May 24 2010, 10:40 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ May 24 2010, 10:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't disagree with any of that. However, most of that is not what people are talking about when they talk about being clutch.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You aren't talking to most people right now, though. It's unfair to argue against something no one here is implying.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
Posts: 1,792
Threads: 49
Joined: Dec 2008
Reputation:
0
I think the issue here isn't with what anyone here is actually implying but with the actual universal usage of baseball cliches. If anyone here uses the words "hot bat" or "clutch" I know what they are saying. If Joe the Plumber uses those words I generally assume he is using them like a retard.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
Posts: 8,024
Threads: 100
Joined: Jun 2009
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98171:date=May 24 2010, 10:40 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ May 24 2010, 10:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't disagree with any of that. However, most of that is not what people are talking about when they talk about being clutch.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Let me try this out. The moronic notion of clutch is that a clutch hitter routinely hits better in high pressure situations than he otherwise hits. That in this situation he steps up and becomes great. That the pressure-filled moment is an inspiration.
I doubt stats would support this.
When I think of someone being clutch, it's someone that isn't <i>foiled</i> by that pressure. He can still do the job in that situation. He's not bathed in flop-sweat and hitting 80 points lower when the game is on the line.
When the pitcher's spot comes up with two on and two outs, down a run in the 9th...a smart manager doesn't even think about clutch. "I'm resting Joe Schmoe today so I have him on the bench, he's gone 11 for 25 here lately and he's hit the tar out of their closer in the past...or I can go with a guy that's hitting .250, has never seen this pitcher before but hit those two fluke walk-offs earlier this month. He's not going to ask himself how Joe handles pressure. He's a major league ballplayer and he's been raking. He's getting the at bat.
Or take closers. Every closer has to be clutch. The job is to be clutch. To come in and pitch one inning in a save situation and get it done.
Posts: 1,792
Threads: 49
Joined: Dec 2008
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98183:date=May 25 2010, 12:13 AM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ May 25 2010, 12:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98171:date=May 24 2010, 10:40 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ May 24 2010, 10:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't disagree with any of that. However, most of that is not what people are talking about when they talk about being clutch.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Or take closers. Every closer has to be clutch. The job is to be clutch. To come in and pitch one inning in a save situation and get it done.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
See LaTroy Hawkins.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
Posts: 2,894
Threads: 72
Joined: Dec 2008
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98185:date=May 25 2010, 12:21 AM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ May 25 2010, 12:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98183:date=May 25 2010, 12:13 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 25 2010, 12:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98171:date=May 24 2010, 10:40 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ May 24 2010, 10:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't disagree with any of that. However, most of that is not what people are talking about when they talk about being clutch.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Or take closers. Every closer has to be clutch. The job is to be clutch. To come in and pitch one inning in a save situation and get it done.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
See LaTroy Hawkins.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Or Mariano Rivera, bottom of the 9th, 7th Game of the World Series, 2001.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
Posts: 1,407
Threads: 18
Joined: Nov 2008
Reputation:
0
<!--quoteo(post=98186:date=May 25 2010, 01:18 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ May 25 2010, 01:18 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98185:date=May 25 2010, 12:21 AM:name=bz)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (bz @ May 25 2010, 12:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98183:date=May 25 2010, 12:13 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ May 25 2010, 12:13 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=98171:date=May 24 2010, 10:40 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ May 24 2010, 10:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't disagree with any of that. However, most of that is not what people are talking about when they talk about being clutch.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Or take closers. Every closer has to be clutch. The job is to be clutch. To come in and pitch one inning in a save situation and get it done.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
See LaTroy Hawkins.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Or Mariano Rivera, bottom of the 9th, 7th Game of the World Series, 2001.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Isn't that kinda taking it to the extreme though? You cant expect anyone to be 'perfect' all the time, thats a little ridiculous. Being clutch doesn't mean your batting average becomes 1.000, your fielding percentage becomes 1.000 and your ERA becomes 0. At least not to me. Rivera has been good in those situations the overwhelming majority of the time.
Anyway this is an old argument, I still think both sides are arguing about different things, thats why its been going in circles for like 5 years.
I can agree that some people, especially casual fans may think there is some magical clutch ability that makes certain people superhuman in high pressure situations, but I don't think thats what anyone here is or has ever argued. Just that some guys, all other things equal may have the ability to produce on a higher level on average in high pressure situations, thats it.
|
