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<!--quoteo(post=101677:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101675:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101659:date=Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101645:date=Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You think his ERA makes him an average pitcher? Fine. WAR says in 2008 Marquis was more valuable than Marmol, even though Marmol's ERA was much better. You don't have to accept that, I can't make you accept that, but the fact is virtually every sabremetrician on the planet accepts that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Interesting. Do you think any GM (sabre-minded or not) would trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary from the equation.
I'm thinking not, but I suppose I could be wrong.
Sort of makes me question the value of WAR as a metric...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They might. You'd have to ask them. Is 87 innings of really good pitching more valuable to a team over the course of a season than 166 innings of decent pitching ? I don't think the answer is as clear cut as you do.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'll start making some calls.
How about this. Would <b>you</b> trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary and age from the equation.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'll say no. But I don't think it invalidates the concept of WAR.
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
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This reminds me of the Z to the pen debate, but I don't want to get into that again.
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I hate myself for caring about any of this crap.
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<!--quoteo(post=101681:date=Jun 16 2010, 11:01 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 11:01 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101677:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101675:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101659:date=Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101645:date=Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You think his ERA makes him an average pitcher? Fine. WAR says in 2008 Marquis was more valuable than Marmol, even though Marmol's ERA was much better. You don't have to accept that, I can't make you accept that, but the fact is virtually every sabremetrician on the planet accepts that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Interesting. Do you think any GM (sabre-minded or not) would trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary from the equation.
I'm thinking not, but I suppose I could be wrong.
Sort of makes me question the value of WAR as a metric...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They might. You'd have to ask them. Is 87 innings of really good pitching more valuable to a team over the course of a season than 166 innings of decent pitching ? I don't think the answer is as clear cut as you do.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'll start making some calls.
How about this. Would <b>you</b> trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary and age from the equation.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'll say no. But I don't think it invalidates the concept of WAR.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IMO, that question is completely unrelated to WAR and it's value.
Marquis provided more value for the 2008 Cubs in his contribution. However, there's plenty of pitchers that could have provided an equal or better contribution. There's very few if any pitchers that did what Marmol did for the Cubs that year.
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*sigh*
If you guys want to continue to give Hendry a gold star for his acquisition of Marquis, then I really don't know what else to tell you. It still goes down as a mark against Hendry in my book.
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<!--quoteo(post=101677:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101675:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101659:date=Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101645:date=Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You think his ERA makes him an average pitcher? Fine. WAR says in 2008 Marquis was more valuable than Marmol, even though Marmol's ERA was much better. You don't have to accept that, I can't make you accept that, but the fact is virtually every sabremetrician on the planet accepts that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Interesting. Do you think any GM (sabre-minded or not) would trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary from the equation.
I'm thinking not, but I suppose I could be wrong.
Sort of makes me question the value of WAR as a metric...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They might. You'd have to ask them. Is 87 innings of really good pitching more valuable to a team over the course of a season than 166 innings of decent pitching ? I don't think the answer is as clear cut as you do.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'll start making some calls.
How about this. Would <b>you</b> trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary and age from the equation.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If you were building a team from scratch and given the choice between a lockdown set up man or an OK rubber armed pitcher, which would you choose?
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<!--quoteo(post=101697:date=Jun 16 2010, 12:02 PM:name=1060Ivy)-->QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Jun 16 2010, 12:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101677:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101675:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101659:date=Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101645:date=Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You think his ERA makes him an average pitcher? Fine. WAR says in 2008 Marquis was more valuable than Marmol, even though Marmol's ERA was much better. You don't have to accept that, I can't make you accept that, but the fact is virtually every sabremetrician on the planet accepts that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Interesting. Do you think any GM (sabre-minded or not) would trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary from the equation.
I'm thinking not, but I suppose I could be wrong.
Sort of makes me question the value of WAR as a metric...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They might. You'd have to ask them. Is 87 innings of really good pitching more valuable to a team over the course of a season than 166 innings of decent pitching ? I don't think the answer is as clear cut as you do.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'll start making some calls.
How about this. Would <b>you</b> trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary and age from the equation.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If you were building a team from scratch and given the choice between a lockdown set up man or an OK rubber armed pitcher, which would you choose?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'd take Marmol.
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<!--quoteo(post=101698:date=Jun 16 2010, 12:06 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 12:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101697:date=Jun 16 2010, 12:02 PM:name=1060Ivy)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Jun 16 2010, 12:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101677:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 10:28 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101675:date=Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 10:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101659:date=Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 09:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101645:date=Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 08:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You think his ERA makes him an average pitcher? Fine. WAR says in 2008 Marquis was more valuable than Marmol, even though Marmol's ERA was much better. You don't have to accept that, I can't make you accept that, but the fact is virtually every sabremetrician on the planet accepts that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Interesting. Do you think any GM (sabre-minded or not) would trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary from the equation.
I'm thinking not, but I suppose I could be wrong.
Sort of makes me question the value of WAR as a metric...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They might. You'd have to ask them. Is 87 innings of really good pitching more valuable to a team over the course of a season than 166 innings of decent pitching ? I don't think the answer is as clear cut as you do.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'll start making some calls.
How about this. Would <b>you</b> trade 2008 Marmol for 2008 Marquis, straight up? Remove salary and age from the equation.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If you were building a team from scratch and given the choice between a lockdown set up man or an OK rubber armed pitcher, which would you choose?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'd take Marmol.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Everyone would take Marmol. It's not even a question. But, that's not the point of WAR. Me stating that's not the point of WAR is not defending Hendry signing Marquis either.
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In 2006, the Cubs gave 51 starts to 5 guys who combined to have an ERA of about 7. Marshall got 24 starts with an ERA over 5.5. In 2007 Marquis wen 12-9 witha 4.60 ERA (.4 WAR) and was paid 4.8 mil. WAR is pretty much Bullshit. I think they calculate replacement level too high, but even if it was correct, it would be average replacement level. Median replacement player is much lower. The advantage of a high payroll, is that you can overpay a guy like Marquis to help ensure a minimum level of performance.
I like you guys a lot.
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<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->The advantage of a high payroll, is that you can overpay a guy like Marquis to help ensure a minimum level of performance.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If we were the Yankees, who can eat every bad contract they give out without thinking twice about it, then I would agree with you. But, as you can see by our current predicament, we are not the Yankees -- and handing out silly contracts has its consequences.
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<!--quoteo(post=101693:date=Jun 16 2010, 11:49 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 11:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->*sigh*
If you guys want to continue to give Hendry a gold star for his acquisition of Marquis, then I really don't know what else to tell you. It still goes down as a mark against Hendry in my book.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is what drives me nuts Butch. First you argue that he overpaid for Marquis in that market. I give you multiple examples showing that he didn't. You then argue he wasn't worth the money we paid him. I give you statistics which strongly suggest he was. So examples show he didn't overpay (anymore than anyone else overpaid for starters that year), and statistics show, AT THE VERY LEAST, he earned the 21 million dollars he was given (unless Fangraphs is off by a factor of 50 percent). And your answer is basically, "I don't care about any of your fancy statistics, examples, or precedents. I still think Hendry overpaid, and he sucked".
How am I supposed to argue that?
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
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<!--quoteo(post=101704:date=Jun 16 2010, 12:27 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jun 16 2010, 12:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101693:date=Jun 16 2010, 11:49 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 11:49 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->*sigh*
If you guys want to continue to give Hendry a gold star for his acquisition of Marquis, then I really don't know what else to tell you. It still goes down as a mark against Hendry in my book.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is what drives me nuts Butch. First you argue that he overpaid for Marquis in that market. I give you multiple examples showing that he didn't. You then argue he wasn't worth the money we paid him. I give you statistics which strongly suggest he was. So examples show he didn't overpay (anymore than anyone else overpaid for starters that year), and statistics show, AT THE VERY LEAST, he earned the 21 million dollars he was given (unless Fangraphs is off by a factor of 50 percent). And your answer is basically, "I don't care about any of your fancy statistics, examples, or precedents. I still think Hendry overpaid, and he sucked".
How am I supposed to argue that?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
First of all, I conceded that the market when Marquis was signed was ridiculous -- across the board.
Ace and jstraw both used stats and salary to show that Marquis was overpaid. I think your response was "WAR is a billion times better than ERA." Which apparently made Ace and straw's argument completely meaningless. I think I also made a fairly compelling case that WAR isn't the be-all/end-all stat that you've made it out to be (at the very least not <b>a billion</b> times better than ERA+ (which Ace used)).
I think I also said that giving Marquis $7M for one season, hoping to reclaim his success in 2004 wouldn't have been awful. I thought giving him a three year deal for $7M per year was unwise, given that he just came off a season where he led the league in losses, earned runs, and home runs.
Yes -- Marquis bested his 2006 season while a Cub. However, many teams (including the Cubs) can find a pitcher from their farm system who could put up a 5.00 ERA (or something close) and pay that person $6,600,000 less per year than what Marquis made. That's what I take issue with.
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I've always thought that Merquis performed adequately and was an effective 5th starter. I still don't believe he was worth 21 large over 3 years. No stat will change my mind. I like sabermetrics, but stats cannot be taken as gospel. A balance between the two is necessary.
If I've learned anything over the years here at SOI, it's that I'd hate to be opposite BT in a court room. Dude can argue.
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<!--quoteo(post=101703:date=Jun 16 2010, 11:22 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 11:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->The advantage of a high payroll, is that you can overpay a guy like Marquis to help ensure a minimum level of performance.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If we were the Yankees, who can eat every bad contract they give out without thinking twice about it, then I would agree with you. But, as you can see by our current predicament, we are not the Yankees -- and handing out silly contracts has its consequences.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The Cubs problem, is that they can't afford the number of superstar contracts. 2007 was a team built around guys that most people would say Hendry was overpaying for production just slightly above replacement level. Derosa, Floyd, Jones, Lily, Marquis, Eyre and Howry. People complained about every one of those signings. Around 30 mil for 8 players.
I like you guys a lot.
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<!--quoteo(post=101711:date=Jun 16 2010, 01:02 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Jun 16 2010, 01:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=101703:date=Jun 16 2010, 11:22 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Jun 16 2010, 11:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->The advantage of a high payroll, is that you can overpay a guy like Marquis to help ensure a minimum level of performance.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If we were the Yankees, who can eat every bad contract they give out without thinking twice about it, then I would agree with you. But, as you can see by our current predicament, we are not the Yankees -- and handing out silly contracts has its consequences.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The Cubs problem, is that they can't afford the number of superstar contracts. 2007 was a team built around guys that most people would say Hendry was overpaying for production just slightly above replacement level. Derosa, Floyd, Jones, Lily, Marquis, Eyre and Howry. People complained about every one of those signings. Around 30 mil for 8 players.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't remember people complaining about every one of those signings. I was psyched about Lilly. I hated the Jones and Marquis signings, though.
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