Zambrano

[veryzer]

Maybe Zambrano's good?

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=113526:date=Sep 5 2010, 10:39 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 5 2010, 10:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Maybe Zambrano's good?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
We can use good.

[AlexV]

<!--quoteo(post=113526:date=Sep 5 2010, 09:39 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 5 2010, 09:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Maybe Zambrano's good?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

He's good, he just can't stay that way.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=113531:date=Sep 5 2010, 11:21 PM:name=AlexV)-->QUOTE (AlexV @ Sep 5 2010, 11:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=113526:date=Sep 5 2010, 09:39 PM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 5 2010, 09:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Maybe Zambrano's good?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

He's good, he just can't stay that way.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Maybe if given the opportunity, he could? He always has in the past. Even last year.

[willis]

What's funny is after all this shit, dude will end up with a sub 4 era and a winning record...I know those aren't the end all be all of a pitcher but after all that has happened, I am kind of amazed.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=113639:date=Sep 7 2010, 02:42 PM:name=willis)-->QUOTE (willis @ Sep 7 2010, 02:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->What's funny is after all this shit, dude will end up with a sub 4 era and a winning record...I know those aren't the end all be all of a pitcher but after all that has happened, I am kind of amazed.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I'm not. It's what he's always done.

[Butcher]

Not to mention, Dempster, Gorz, and Silva's ERAs have all been creeping up towards their career averages. And Wells? We didn't really have much to go by -- but his ERA is over a run higher than it was last year. Meanwhile, Zambrano's ERA has been coming down towards his career average. This is why you look at career stats and not 4 starts in April when making a decision like moving one of your starters to the bullpen. If given the opportunity to pitch through his struggles, I feel pretty confident in saying that Z's numbers would be right where they should be at this point in the season -- and better than Silva's, Gorz's, Wells', and maybe Dempster's.

[willis]

<!--quoteo(post=113640:date=Sep 7 2010, 02:44 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 7 2010, 02:44 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=113639:date=Sep 7 2010, 02:42 PM:name=willis)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (willis @ Sep 7 2010, 02:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->What's funny is after all this shit, dude will end up with a sub 4 era and a winning record...I know those aren't the end all be all of a pitcher but after all that has happened, I am kind of amazed.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I'm not. It's what he's always done.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Oh yeah for sure, but just with all the lunacy this fucked up season has brought him...there he'll be.

[jstraw]

Fire Lou.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=113644:date=Sep 7 2010, 02:48 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 7 2010, 02:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Not to mention, Dempster, Gorz, and Silva's ERAs have all been creeping up towards their career averages. And Wells? We didn't really have much to go by -- but his ERA is over a run higher than it was last year. Meanwhile, Zambrano's ERA has been coming down towards his career average. This is why you look at career stats and not 4 starts in April when making a decision like moving one of your starters to the bullpen. If given the opportunity to pitch through his struggles, I feel pretty confident in saying that Z's numbers would be right where they should be at this point in the season -- and better than Silva's, Gorz's, Wells', and maybe Dempster's.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I'm going to fucking kill myself.


If you are going to look at the month of August, a month in which Zambrano let up FIFTY FUCKING TWO baserunners in 32 innings, but only had a 2.23 ERA, and use that as fucking justification for a move that was made in April, I'm going to fucking shoot myself in the head. I think the 52 baserunners mean a Hell of a lot more than his ERA.

ERA is a remarkably bad stat to base anything on. Zambrano has really, for the most part, pitched pretty badly, with one or two exceptions, since he came back.

His "numbers" are going to be nowhere near "right where they should be at this point in the season", unless you think they should be terrible. His WHIP is going to dwarf his previous full season high. His hits allowed to innings pitched is over 1.00 for the first time in his career. His K/BB is not exceptionally good. His BB/IP is not exceptionally good. In short, the only thing he has done well is not allowed Earned Runs. And while that is admirable, it's not a quality a pitcher has a lot of control over in the long run.

His "numbers" are NOT going to be better than the other pitchers in the rotation, unless by "numbers" you mean ERA. And if that is what you are looking for, I would love to see you GM for the Cardinals or the Reds. Because, again, ERA means almost nothing. It's great if you can wriggle out of jam after jam, but it's not something that a good pitcher shoots for. Do you want me to put it a different way? The 4 guys on the Cubs with the most similar WHIPs are Cashner, Coleman, Berg, and Diamond. They have ERA's that range between 5.81 and 7.23. I'd say Zambrano is the outlier there.

And if we can agree that WHIP is a better indicator of talent, let me as you this. Do you know how many pitchers in the MLB that have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title have a better WHIP than Zambrano? All of them. Paul Maholm is the worst, and his WHIP is 1.61. Same as Zambrano's. If Zambrano had enough innings to qualify, he would be (tied for )the WORST in the Major Leagues. Let me also add that Z's WHIP for August, the month in which he went 3-0 with a 2.23 ERA, the month you are using as an example of the great injustice of sitting Zambrano, is actually a tiny bit higher than his season WHIP, as it stands at 1.62.

Look, it's great that Zambrano has somehow managed to not let up 6 runs a game with the way he is currently pitching. And maybe his really good last game is an indicator that he's turned it around. But you would have to be completely fucked in the head if you think he can continue to let up 1.6 runners an inning, and still be an effective pitcher. And you have to have balls of steel to use this as proof you were right that he never should have been taken out of the rotation.

If he pitches like he did last game, great. If he continues to pitch as he did in August, that 2.23 ERA will be shown as the mirage it is.

[Coldneck]

BT just hit this one out of the park.

[Butcher]

BT -- you're arguing against a point I never made.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->If given the opportunity to pitch through his struggles, I feel pretty confident in saying that Z's numbers would be right where they should be at this point in the season -- and better than Silva's, Gorz's, Wells', and maybe Dempster's.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is what I said.

IF given the opportunity (which he wasn't given)...Z's numbers WOULD BE right where they should be at this point in the season...

I'm not saying what you're seeing now is the finished product. I'm saying that IF he were given the opportunity to pitch through his early season struggles (which is what pretty much every proven starting pitcher would be given the opportunity to do), his numbers would be pretty close to his career averages. Obviously, this isn't something I can prove because we can't rewind the season and try again.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=113742:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BT -- you're arguing against a point I never made.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->If given the opportunity to pitch through his struggles, I feel pretty confident in saying that Z's numbers would be right where they should be at this point in the season -- and better than Silva's, Gorz's, Wells', and maybe Dempster's.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is what I said.

IF given the opportunity (which he wasn't given)...Z's numbers WOULD BE right where they should be at this point in the season...

I'm not saying what you're seeing now is the finished product. I'm saying that IF he were given the opportunity to pitch through his early season struggles (which is what pretty much every proven starting pitcher would be given the opportunity to do), his numbers would be pretty close to his career averages. Obviously, this isn't something I can prove because we can't rewind the season and try again.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Based on what? As I've shown you, since coming back, and other than ERA, Zambrano is STILL pitching pretty badly. What gives you the idea that he would have been fine if he had just been left alone?

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=113745:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:19 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Sep 8 2010, 02:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=113742:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BT -- you're arguing against a point I never made.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->If given the opportunity to pitch through his struggles, I feel pretty confident in saying that Z's numbers would be right where they should be at this point in the season -- and better than Silva's, Gorz's, Wells', and maybe Dempster's.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is what I said.

IF given the opportunity (which he wasn't given)...Z's numbers WOULD BE right where they should be at this point in the season...

I'm not saying what you're seeing now is the finished product. I'm saying that IF he were given the opportunity to pitch through his early season struggles (which is what pretty much every proven starting pitcher would be given the opportunity to do), his numbers would be pretty close to his career averages. Obviously, this isn't something I can prove because we can't rewind the season and try again.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Based on what? As I've shown you, since coming back, and other than ERA, Zambrano is STILL pitching pretty badly. What gives you the idea that he would have been fine if he had just been left alone?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Unless you think Zambrano is hurt, why would you think his numbers *wouldn't* look more like his career averages and more like his 4 starts in April?

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=113747:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:24 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 8 2010, 02:24 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=113745:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:19 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Sep 8 2010, 02:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=113742:date=Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 8 2010, 02:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BT -- you're arguing against a point I never made.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->If given the opportunity to pitch through his struggles, I feel pretty confident in saying that Z's numbers would be right where they should be at this point in the season -- and better than Silva's, Gorz's, Wells', and maybe Dempster's.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is what I said.

IF given the opportunity (which he wasn't given)...Z's numbers WOULD BE right where they should be at this point in the season...

I'm not saying what you're seeing now is the finished product. I'm saying that IF he were given the opportunity to pitch through his early season struggles (which is what pretty much every proven starting pitcher would be given the opportunity to do), his numbers would be pretty close to his career averages. Obviously, this isn't something I can prove because we can't rewind the season and try again.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Based on what? As I've shown you, since coming back, and other than ERA, Zambrano is STILL pitching pretty badly. What gives you the idea that he would have been fine if he had just been left alone?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Unless you think Zambrano is hurt, why would you think his numbers *wouldn't* look more like his career averages and more like his 4 starts in April?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Because I'm not entirely certain that he is isn't "done" being an impact pitcher. I would not have been surprised if he was a stud this year, but I won't be surprised if the best we get out of him is 3rd starter numbers from here on out. I didn't think he would be as bad as he has been this year, but I do think the amount of innings he has pitched in his career is going to catch up to him. His WHIP last year was almost 1.4, which isn't the catastrophe it is this year, but it's definitely not something you are looking for out of your #1 starter.

More to the point, if he was bad before the layoff, and has been equally bad SINCE the layoff, how can you blame the layoff for anything? There may be any number of factors contributing to how badly he has pitched (hidden injury, family issues, etc), but from a statistical point of view, it's difficult for me to see how the layoff is one of them.