02-13-2009, 04:49 PM
The topic of recession versus depression was a favorite of presidents Harry S. Truman and Ronald Reagan.
<i>“A recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose yours.”</i>
Reagan, when on the presidential campaign trail in 1980, added: <i>“And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”</i>
My take, it's bad out there...really bad. It could get better and it could get worse...but right now, I see it getting worse. We turned a blind eye to what was going on out there, and a lot of us are guilty of this. From the insane housing prices, we watched as people who had never saved a dime in their lives got approved for exuberant mortgages, to the neighbor driving the shiny new car and having the house he just bought completely remodeled, all on credit. All the signs were there. We all saw what was going on, but we choose to ignore it. We threw logic out the window and just assumed it was on the up, and that no short cuts were being taken. This is the perfect reflection of baseball in the late 90's when HR totals went from 30-40 to the sudden boom of 60-70, seemingly overnight. Players who were once small were suddenly huge...and again, we ignored it. But deep down, we all knew. This is an age old story, but supposedly, Joseph P. Kennedy [1888-1969] knew that it was time to get out of the market in 1929 when his shoeshine boy began giving him stock tips.
Over the past 5 years, I've never had more people give me advice on real estate and stock markets, bond markets, etc...
Shoeshine boy indeed.
<i>“A recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose yours.”</i>
Reagan, when on the presidential campaign trail in 1980, added: <i>“And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”</i>
My take, it's bad out there...really bad. It could get better and it could get worse...but right now, I see it getting worse. We turned a blind eye to what was going on out there, and a lot of us are guilty of this. From the insane housing prices, we watched as people who had never saved a dime in their lives got approved for exuberant mortgages, to the neighbor driving the shiny new car and having the house he just bought completely remodeled, all on credit. All the signs were there. We all saw what was going on, but we choose to ignore it. We threw logic out the window and just assumed it was on the up, and that no short cuts were being taken. This is the perfect reflection of baseball in the late 90's when HR totals went from 30-40 to the sudden boom of 60-70, seemingly overnight. Players who were once small were suddenly huge...and again, we ignored it. But deep down, we all knew. This is an age old story, but supposedly, Joseph P. Kennedy [1888-1969] knew that it was time to get out of the market in 1929 when his shoeshine boy began giving him stock tips.
Over the past 5 years, I've never had more people give me advice on real estate and stock markets, bond markets, etc...
Shoeshine boy indeed.