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Scarey, I noticed someone on NSBB misspelled scarey also and made that same post. No one really wanted to comment on the career .225 RISP over there.
Kabes, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Ricardii one of the new generation Sabermetric guys? Either way I find it hard to fathom how any GM that had to man a position where defensive liability is not subtracted from offensive production would not be beating down Dunn's door.
Lance, it pisses me off that Soriano can't be a great rightfielder. He has all of the talent in the world to be well above average in right. He has the great arm, he has plenty of speed, and he is scared to death of the wall, and most importantly he isn't very good at catching fly balls. It seems like if he really decided he wanted to, he could become a much more valuable member of the team.
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I just find it a little shocking that so many people are overlooking all of Dunn's shortcomings, and not admitting that he would be better off in the AL. There's no way any serious GM intent on winning ASAP would risk putting him in RF. How did that work out in AZ?
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I hate to get into these Adam Dunn discussions, but I can see why they always generate so much passion...he's a really polarizing figure, and he seems to embody a lot of traits that play well into the scout-vs-stat opinions.
<!--coloro:#FF0000--><!--/coloro-->Savant<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->:yes, Ricciardi used to work for Beane in Oakland, but his work in Toronto has been mystifying...perhaps he never really believed in the Beane approach, and just used Beane's coattails to land the plum Blue Jay job. By contrast, DePodesta was also a Beane minion before the Dodger GM gig, but he used his office to <i>really</i> put into play a lot of sabermetric stuff. I think he made the playoffs one year, then got axed the next.
<!--coloro:#4B0082--><!--/coloro-->Scarey<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: I'm not ignoring you, but how can I respond to someone who insinuated that a career .416 OBP with RISP sucks? <!--coloro:#A0522D--><!--/coloro-->Stan Musial<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->'s career OBP? .416.
That number is better than the career OBP numbers of Wade Boggs, Willie Mays, Manny, A-Rod, DiMaggio...uh, ...let's just say it's a damn high number. His low batting avg. in the same sitch is actually quite close to his career batting average.
You framed your post with a real-world situation, so I will do the same...kind of what would be a typical scenario if he were on the Cubs: Soriano leads off with a double, Theriot strikes out. Up comes Dunn, and while you're hoping for an RBI single, or a "productive out," (which is an oxymoron, and most baseball propeller-heads believe does not exist) Dunn fucking...WALKS.
What an asshole!
So now you have a man on first and second, with 2 power hitters coming up, D Lee and Aramis. Our two best RBI men, only now they have <i>twice as many men on base</i>.
How is this a bad situation?
<!--coloro:#2E8B57--><!--/coloro-->rok<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: I agree that if the Cubs were in the AL, I'd be much more comfortable about Dunn, Abreu, Bradley, etc. as a DH instead of a regular OF.
But we're not. So you have to decide if Dunn's massive offensive production is outweighed by his definite shortcomings with the glove. I don't think they are, but I would guess that Jim is in agreement with you.
Which brings me to the main point: Jim doesn't dig the Dunn type. So this is all a moot point, DESPITE the news-rumor that Dunn's agent has begged for an interview because the <!--coloro:#0000FF--><!--/coloro-->Cubs<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc--> are supposedly Dunn's #1 choice.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=4759:date=Dec 14 2008, 10:48 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 14 2008, 10:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I hate to get into these Adam Dunn discussions, but I can see why they always generate so much passion...he's a really polarizing figure, and he seems to embody a lot of traits that play well into the scout-vs-stat opinions.
<!--coloro:#8B0000--> <!--/coloro-->Savan<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->t:yes, Ricciardi used to work for Beane in Oakland, but his work in Toronto has been mystifying...perhaps he never really believed in the Beane approach, and just used Beane's coattails to land the plum Blue Jay job. By contrast, DePodesta was also a Beane minion before the Dodger GM gig, but he used his office to <i>really</i> put into play a lot of sabermetric stuff. I think he made the playoffs one year, then got axed the next.
<!--coloro:#4B0082--> <!--/coloro-->Scarey<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: I'm not ignoring you, but how can I respond to someone who insinuated that a career .416 OBP with RISP sucks? Stan Musial's career OBP? .416.
That number is better than the career OBP numbers of Wade Boggs, Willie Mays, Manny, A-Rod, DiMaggio...uh, ...let's just say it's a damn high number. His low batting avg. in the same sitch is actually quite close to his career batting average.
You framed your post with a real-world situation, so I will do the same...kind of what would be a typical scenario if he were on the Cubs: Soriano leads off with a double, Theriot strikes out. Up comes Dunn, and while you're hoping for an RBI single, or a "productive out," (which is an oxymoron, and most baseball propeller-heads believe does not exist) Dunn fucking...WALKS.
What an asshole!
So now you have a man on first and second, with 2 power hitters coming up, D Lee and Aramis. How is this a bad situation?
<!--coloro:#2E8B57--> <!--/coloro-->rok<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: I agree that if the Cubs were in the AL, I'd be much more comfortable about Dunn, Abreu, Bradley, etc. as a DH instead of a regular OF.
But we're not. So you have to decide if Dunn's massive offensive production is outweighed by his definite shortcomings with the glove. I don't think they are, but I would guess that Jim is in agreement with you.
Which brings me to the main point: Jim doesn't dig the Dunn type. So this is all a moot point, DESPITE the news-rumor that Dunn's agent has begged for an interview because the <!--coloro:#0000FF--> <!--/coloro-->Cubs<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc--> are supposedly Dunn's #1 choice.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You want him to be the guy driving in the runs in that situation. Sure a walk's not a bad thing usually, but he should be up there looking to hit and get the run in, not take a walk. That's been part of our problem I think in recent years(especially in the playoffs the last 2 years), sitting back and waiting for the 3-run homer, rather than just executing the fundamentals to get a run in with a runner on 3rd base and less than 2 outs for example. And then if you take the walk, you've set them up for a double play in this situation.
Actually, one guy is who is a good example of how to hit in these situations is somebody we talked about already today, Garret Anderson.
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<!--quoteo(post=4761:date=Dec 14 2008, 11:03 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Dec 14 2008, 11:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=4759:date=Dec 14 2008, 10:48 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 14 2008, 10:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I hate to get into these Adam Dunn discussions, but I can see why they always generate so much passion...he's a really polarizing figure, and he seems to embody a lot of traits that play well into the scout-vs-stat opinions.
<!--coloro:#8b0000--> <!--/coloro-->Savan<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->t:yes, Ricciardi used to work for Beane in Oakland, but his work in Toronto has been mystifying...perhaps he never really believed in the Beane approach, and just used Beane's coattails to land the plum Blue Jay job. By contrast, DePodesta was also a Beane minion before the Dodger GM gig, but he used his office to <i>really</i> put into play a lot of sabermetric stuff. I think he made the playoffs one year, then got axed the next.
<!--coloro:#4b0082--> <!--/coloro-->Scarey<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: I'm not ignoring you, but how can I respond to someone who insinuated that a career .416 OBP with RISP sucks? Stan Musial's career OBP? .416.
That number is better than the career OBP numbers of Wade Boggs, Willie Mays, Manny, A-Rod, DiMaggio...uh, ...let's just say it's a damn high number. His low batting avg. in the same sitch is actually quite close to his career batting average.
You framed your post with a real-world situation, so I will do the same...kind of what would be a typical scenario if he were on the Cubs: Soriano leads off with a double, Theriot strikes out. Up comes Dunn, and while you're hoping for an RBI single, or a "productive out," (which is an oxymoron, and most baseball propeller-heads believe does not exist) Dunn fucking...WALKS.
What an asshole!
So now you have a man on first and second, with 2 power hitters coming up, D Lee and Aramis. How is this a bad situation?
<!--coloro:#2e8b57--> <!--/coloro-->rok<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: I agree that if the Cubs were in the AL, I'd be much more comfortable about Dunn, Abreu, Bradley, etc. as a DH instead of a regular OF.
But we're not. So you have to decide if Dunn's massive offensive production is outweighed by his definite shortcomings with the glove. I don't think they are, but I would guess that Jim is in agreement with you.
Which brings me to the main point: Jim doesn't dig the Dunn type. So this is all a moot point, DESPITE the news-rumor that Dunn's agent has begged for an interview because the <!--coloro:#0000ff--> <!--/coloro-->Cubs<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc--> are supposedly Dunn's #1 choice.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You want him to be the guy driving in the runs in that situation. Sure a walk's not a bad thing usually, but he should be up there looking to hit and get the run in, not take a walk. That's been part of our problem I think in recent years(especially in the playoffs the last 2 years), sitting back and waiting for the 3-run homer, rather than just executing the fundamentals to get a run in with a runner on 3rd base and less than 2 outs for example. And then if you take the walk, you've set them up for a double play in this situation.
Actually, one guy is who is a good example of how to hit in these situations is somebody we talked about already today, Garret Anderson.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Tis true. While Dunn did just make the pitcher throw more pitches and added a baserunner with the potential to be a run, he also didn't just go ahead and get a run in. He, then, risks Lee grounding into another inning ending double play. Basically, he is adding more variables to getting a run scored by taking a walk as opposed to just trying to drive in a run.
Calculated aggressiveness is a necessity when you have baserunners ahead of you. And a baserunner is only a run when they cross the plate.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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OBP is the most important stat and there is no such as a productive out, when you look at total expected runs. In baseball, the don't give each team 4,374 outs, and whichever scores the most runs wins the pennant. When you play within the framework of baseball there is a lot more than OBP involved in scoring the specific runs teams need to win specific games.
I like you guys a lot.
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<!--quoteo(post=4765:date=Dec 14 2008, 11:43 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Dec 14 2008, 11:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->OBP is the most important stat and there is no such as a productive out, when you look at total expected runs. In baseball, the don't give each team 4,374 outs, and whichever scores the most runs wins the pennant. When you play within the framework of baseball there is a lot more than OBP involved in scoring the specific runs teams need to win specific games.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You mean, dare I say, that one can't solely hope that runs will be scored based on averages, and that baseball, being a dynamic sport, needs the assumptions of averages PLUS the situational gameday context in which runs are to be scored? You mean that with each run scoring opportunity there is a variable set of potentials that need to be interpreted and acted on for a run to be scored?
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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<!--quoteo(post=4765:date=Dec 14 2008, 11:43 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Dec 14 2008, 11:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->OBP is the most important stat and there is no such as a productive out, when you look at total expected runs. In baseball, the don't give each team 4,374 outs, and whichever scores the most runs wins the pennant. When you play within the framework of baseball there is a lot more than OBP involved in scoring the specific runs teams need to win specific games.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Except for one thing: OBP correlates with wins more than any other baseball statistic.
In the dead-ball era, in the steroid era, in the run-crazy 30's, in the extreme pitcher's era of the 60's...historically, and yes, even in the present, OBP is the #1 stat tied to a high victory total.
<b>Hell NO is it the be-all and end-all</b>. Not even close.
It's merely the <i>most</i> important out of many.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=4768:date=Dec 14 2008, 11:51 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 14 2008, 11:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=4765:date=Dec 14 2008, 11:43 PM:name=leonardsipes)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Dec 14 2008, 11:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->OBP is the most important stat and there is no such as a productive out, when you look at total expected runs. In baseball, the don't give each team 4,374 outs, and whichever scores the most runs wins the pennant. When you play within the framework of baseball there is a lot more than OBP involved in scoring the specific runs teams need to win specific games.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Except for one thing: OBP correlates with wins more than any other baseball statistic.
In the dead-ball era, in the steroid era, in the run-crazy 30's, in the extreme pitcher's era of the 60's...historically, and yes, even in the present, OBP is the #1 stat tied to a high victory total.
<b>Hell NO is it the be-all and end-all</b>. Not even close.
It's merely the <i>most</i> important out of many.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
But don't just assume that high OBP = Runs in the game, because with each scoring opportunity there is a different set of circumstances.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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I still think Lee is better than Choi
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<!--quoteo(post=4773:date=Dec 15 2008, 01:05 AM:name=Sandberg)-->QUOTE (Sandberg @ Dec 15 2008, 01:05 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I still think Lee is better than Choi<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]
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<!--quoteo(post=4759:date=Dec 14 2008, 11:48 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 14 2008, 11:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--coloro:#4B0082--> <!--/coloro-->Scarey<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->: I'm not ignoring you, but how can I respond to someone who insinuated that a career .416 OBP with RISP sucks? <!--coloro:#A0522D--> <!--/coloro-->Stan Musial<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->'s career OBP? .416.
That number is better than the career OBP numbers of Wade Boggs, Willie Mays, Manny, A-Rod, DiMaggio...uh, ...let's just say it's a damn high number. His low batting avg. in the same sitch is actually quite close to his career batting average.
You framed your post with a real-world situation, so I will do the same...kind of what would be a typical scenario if he were on the Cubs: Soriano leads off with a double, Theriot strikes out. Up comes Dunn, and while you're hoping for an RBI single, or a "productive out," (which is an oxymoron, and most baseball propeller-heads believe does not exist) Dunn fucking...WALKS.
What an asshole!
So now you have a man on first and second, with 2 power hitters coming up, D Lee and Aramis. Our two best RBI men, only now they have <i>twice as many men on base</i>.
How is this a bad situation?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Walking isn't the worst thing in the world, but as BZ said he is supposed to be the type of player that drives the runner in.
Also, in you're scenario you're already assuming he walks. 19.1% you'd be right. Then, 22.5% of the time he'll get a hit. However, 58.4% of the time he is creating an out and a lot of those are either strikeouts or fly outs that don't help the runner at 2nd at all.
It's only in 22.5% of his ABs with RISP that he even gives his team a chance to get the runner in. Sure, he gives the guy behind him an opportunity to drive himself and the other runner in, but there's plenty of other guys that can do that for a lot less money and happen to play better defense.
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Except for one thing: OBP correlates with wins more than any other baseball statistic.
In the dead-ball era, in the steroid era, in the run-crazy 30's, in the extreme pitcher's era of the 60's...historically, and yes, even in the present, OBP is the #1 stat tied to a high victory total.
That does not mean that Dunn is a great hitter, or that Dunn's OBP adds so much value. In fact, it does not necessarily mean anything. Correlation does not always mean there is cause and effect. Or, it could be the other way around - teams that win a lot, have the winning run in scoring position a lot and therefore their hitters are intentionally walked or pitched around a lot.
The problem with statistics, is that they treat all runs as equal. In a seven plus run inning, of course OBP is the most important thing, but as the number of runs in the inning get lower, different things become more important. All the big innings account for a lot of runs and skew any stat analysis toward OBP. There are a whole lot of "filler" runs scored in a season, but what is involved in scoring the most important runs? Nobody does any analysis on that, to find out, you have to watch the games.
Even if OBP was the most important thing, that still does not mean all OBP is equal. Cin did not seem to get any worse when in lost Dunn's, nor did AZ seem to get any better when it gained Dunn's.
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For our new lefty RFer, here's a big reason why I'd like Dunn: durability. If he signs a 3-year deal, he'll likely miss less than 10-12 games TOTAL during the course of the contract. He's averaged 158 a year over past 5 years.
Abreu is 36. Bradley is truly a risk...the dude misses half-seasons at the drop of a hat.
That said, if we sign Bradley, I won't weep. I like him a lot, and perhaps he'll put together that career-year that we all know he's capable of, where he could easily win an MVP.
Abreu would be a mistake, IMO. He'll likely be just as expensive as Dunn, and at this stage of his career, he's simply not as good a player, and sinking fast. His main strength is OBP, which the majority of you apparently think isn't that big of a deal anyway.
Teahen or Garrett Anderson would be a Jeromy Burnitz-like signing.
I think Jimbo will sign Milton Bradley. It helps a lot that Lou likes him too. And Bradley <i>wants</i> to be a Cub.
I'm looking forward to the Bradley era...definitely won't be boring. I fear that we'll be watching him in the same way we watch Harden...when he plays, he'll kick ass.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=4778:date=Dec 15 2008, 02:43 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 15 2008, 02:43 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->For our new lefty RFer, here's a big reason why I'd like Dunn: durability. If he signs a 3-year deal, he'll likely miss less than 10-12 games TOTAL during the course of the contract. He's averaged 158 a year over past 5 years.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This <i>is</i> the Cubs you are talking about. You can throw trends out the window.
"If you throw at someone's head, it's very dangerous, because in the head is the brain." -- Pudge Rodriguez to AM 1270 WXYT in Detroit
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