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<!--quoteo(post=17653:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:47 PM:name=ColoradoCub)-->QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Feb 12 2009, 04:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17652:date=Feb 12 2009, 03:46 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 03:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->He'll be a 1st baseman, most likely, for the Nats. Whee.
BTW, when he homers against the Cubs, I hate his guts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And in 2 years, when he's a free agent, we can discuss how much better of a hitter he is than DLee. I can't wait.
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Lee's contract will be up then too. But, they'll <b>both</b> be over-the-hill by then, as are almost all ballplayers in their 30's.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=17655:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:50 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 04:50 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17653:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:47 PM:name=ColoradoCub)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Feb 12 2009, 04:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17652:date=Feb 12 2009, 03:46 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 03:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->He'll be a 1st baseman, most likely, for the Nats. Whee.
BTW, when he homers against the Cubs, I hate his guts.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And in 2 years, when he's a free agent, we can discuss how much better of a hitter he is than DLee. I can't wait.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Lee's contract will be up then too. But, they'll <b>both</b> be over-the-hill by then, as are almost all ballplayers in their 30's.
That's when we move Aramis to 1st base, and bring up Vitters to play 3rd. Fuck Dunn (after 2010).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, you leave Ramirez at 3B and move Vitters to 1B now.
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<!--quoteo(post=17650:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:42 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 04:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17649:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:41 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 12 2009, 04:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->He's never been better than Abreu defensively. I usually don't mean it, but I really don't care what the stats tell me on that this time. Dunn=worst every year in the outfield.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yeah, fuck the stats. And also, those personal observations of paid baseball experts who get paid to watch them and grade them <i>for a living</i>.
Those guys are assholes.
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Actually, some of the experts you refer to don't watch the games either. They collect the stats just like economic and marketing stats are compiled, and then data mine them to come up with different conclusions. When it comes to defense though, stats are very misleading. Even the experts will admit this. That's why we have scouts who actually attend games and observe. Stats only fill in (and imperfectly at that) for the games/players they aren't physically able to observe.
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Oh . . . and KB . . . it's "discussions" like this that make my "you don't actually watch games" comments relevant.
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In 2011 we move Aramis to 1st base, and bring up Vitters to play 3rd. So yeah, fuck Dunn (after 2010)...he won't be as good. Neither will Aramis, but he's signed to a long deal.
But Aram will still be pretty good, and they say Vitters is a future all-star. (By <i>they</i>, I mean scouts and baseball observers, although I guess we've concluded that those guys are untrustworthy assholes, so scratch that.)
Although, I like Ruby's idea of doing it NOW.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=17650:date=Feb 12 2009, 03:42 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 03:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17649:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:41 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 12 2009, 04:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->He's never been better than Abreu defensively. I usually don't mean it, but I really don't care what the stats tell me on that this time. Dunn=worst every year in the outfield.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yeah, fuck the stats. And also, those personal observations of paid baseball experts who get paid to watch them and grade them <i>for a living</i>.
Those guys are assholes.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't buy those stats. Do they count Dunn's steps, measure how long his strides are, count the exact amount of feet he ran to try to catch a ball? Do they include how he has a long Byron Leftwich wind in his throw with his huge body, making it take him longer to throw the ball than most outfielders? That he has crappy form and isn't good at fielding a groundball? There's so many things to fielding that stats won't ever tell you, especially in the outfield. You've gotta go with your eyes sometimes. With infielders the stats tell a better story. Much less ground to cover so we get a better idea of a play that Jose Reyes gets to that Ryan Theriot doesn't, and fielding percentage is a much bigger deal. Rarely is an outfielder going to drop a flyball.
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<!--quoteo(post=17661:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:56 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 12 2009, 04:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17650:date=Feb 12 2009, 03:42 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 03:42 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17649:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:41 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 12 2009, 04:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->He's never been better than Abreu defensively. I usually don't mean it, but I really don't care what the stats tell me on that this time. Dunn=worst every year in the outfield.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yeah, fuck the stats. And also, those personal observations of paid baseball experts who get paid to watch them and grade them <i>for a living</i>.
Those guys are assholes.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't buy those stats. Do they count Dunn's steps, measure how long his strides are, count the exact amount of feet he ran to catch a ball? Do they include how he has a long Byron Leftwich wind in his throw with his huge body, making it take him longer to throw the ball than most outfielders? That he has crappy form and isn't good at fielding a groundball? There's so many things to fielding that stats won't ever tell you, especially in the outfield. You've gotta go with your eyes sometimes. With infielders the stats tell a better story. Much less ground to cover so we get a better idea of a play that Jose Reyes gets to that Ryan Theriot doesn't, and fielding percentage is a much bigger deal. Rarely is an outfielder going to drop a flyball.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's EXACTLY what they cover, because as Rok said, fielding stats are untrustworthy.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=17660:date=Feb 12 2009, 04:56 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 04:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->In 2011 we move Aramis to 1st base, and bring up Vitters to play 3rd. So yeah, fuck Dunn (after 2010)...he won't be as good. Neither will Aramis, but he's signed to a long deal.
But Aram will still be pretty good, and they say Vitters is a future all-star. (By <i>they</i>, I mean scouts and baseball observers, although I guess we've concluded that those guys are untrustworthy assholes, so scratch that.)
Although, I like Ruby's idea of doing it NOW.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Vitters is below average at 3B and projects to be a corner OFer/1B, he should make the move to 1B now.
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BTW Ruby, I <i>watched</i> most of that Mets-Cards game last summer.
Pujols, 0-for-5, 3 K's, came up empty in the clutch (9th inning, man on 3rd).
So, Pujols cannot hit a baseball, plain <i>as the eye can see</i>. Right?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=17664:date=Feb 12 2009, 05:01 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BTW Ruby, I <i>watched</i> most of that Mets-Cards game last summer.
Pujols, 0-for-5, 3 K's, came up empty in the clutch (9th inning, man on 3rd).
So, Pujols cannot hit a baseball, plain <i>as the eye can see</i>. Right?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What point are you trying to make?
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<!--quoteo(post=17666:date=Feb 12 2009, 05:07 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 12 2009, 05:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17664:date=Feb 12 2009, 05:01 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BTW Ruby, I <i>watched</i> most of that Mets-Cards game last summer.
Pujols, 0-for-5, 3 K's, came up empty in the clutch (9th inning, man on 3rd).
So, Pujols cannot hit a baseball, plain <i>as the eye can see</i>. Right?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What point are you trying to make?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That you can't base your judgements on "watching" a player, because unless you watch him for 162 games, you'll only get a vague idea. Even if you watch him 100 games, eyes glued to the TV with no distractions for 3 straight hours, you won't get the full picture.
Example: When Z was rolling in Milwaukee against the Astros, I brought in my daughter to watch the final couple innings. After the no-hitter concluded, and in the days afterward, she thought he was the greatest pitcher in the world.
Kind of a shock when he got slaughtered in the <i>very next game</i>.
Did you watch 162 Yankee games last year, every inning? AND 162 Reds games, every pitch, every inning?
If not, then I don't trust your opinion about Abreu vs. Dunn. Because the guys who DID do that, say Dunn was better last year.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=17669:date=Feb 12 2009, 05:12 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 05:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17666:date=Feb 12 2009, 05:07 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 12 2009, 05:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17664:date=Feb 12 2009, 05:01 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 12 2009, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->BTW Ruby, I <i>watched</i> most of that Mets-Cards game last summer.
Pujols, 0-for-5, 3 K's, came up empty in the clutch (9th inning, man on 3rd).
So, Pujols cannot hit a baseball, plain <i>as the eye can see</i>. Right?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What point are you trying to make?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That you can't base your judgements on "watching" a player, because unless you watch him for 162 games, you'll only get a vague idea. Even if you watch him 100 games, eyes glued to the TV with no distractions for 3 straight hours, you won't get the full picture.
Example: When Z was rolling in Milwaukee against the Astros, I brought in my daughter to watch the final couple innings. After the no-hitter concluded, and in the days afterward, she thought he was the greatest pitcher in the world.
Kind of a shock when he got slaughtered in the <i>very next game</i>.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Adam Dunn has played against the Cubs 109 times. Let's pretend those 109 times are the only times I've ever seen/listened to him play (which it's not) and I never turned on Sportscenter or BBTN. That is plenty of time to form the opinion that he is a god awful defender and one of the worst I've ever seen.
The same thing applies to Pujols, who has played the Cubs 129 times. Let's pretend, once again, that those are the only times I've ever seen/listened to him play (which it's not) and I never turned on Sportscenter or BBTN. That is plenty of time to form the opinion that he is a hell of a player on both sides of the ball, actually.
My advice, turn on a TV, try the radio, maybe watch some highlights this year. You'll like it, I promise.
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Ok, let's get to the bottom of the Fielding Bibles plus/minus.
Adam Dunn's 2007 plus/minus: -29
Bobby Abreu's 2007 plus/minus: -12
Adam Dunn's 2008 plus/minus: -13
Bobby Abreu's 2008 plus/minus: -24
These numbers fluctuate at a ridiculous pace considering it was only one year between them. Do you really think that Dunn improved that much and Abreu fell off that much? I just can't believe that.
Also, keep in mind that these guys are being judged while playing two different positions, one of which has always been deemed a difficult defensive assignment and one that has always been the place to put the lacking defensive players.
Let's forget for one second that it's not even fair to straight up compare these numbers. Do you really think it can accurately gauge how good a player can be defensively? Or do you think it is a judgment on how well the player played defensively in a one season span?
Just to drive home my point:
Robinson Canoe's 2007 plus/minus: +17
Robinson Canoe's 2008 plus/minus: -16
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Scarey, you've just hit on a BIG point that fielding evaluators have been saying: Just like batting performances fluctuate a lot, just like pitching performances fluctuate a lot,
<b>FIELDING performance fluctuates</b> a lot too! So, much to Ruby's total chagrin, you can't just say anymore, "That guys sucks." The next year he might be a lot better. Or a lot worse. Like Cano.
You don't think players fluctuate?
Cliff Lee's 2006: 14-11 4.40 ERA
Cliff Lee's 2007: 5-8 6.29 ERA (even sent down to the minors)
Cliff Lee's 2008: 22-3 2.54 ERA
Makes Cano look like downright steady, doesn't it?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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Pitching and hitting fluctuates. Fielding, not so much. Guys are what they are. As you get older you lose a step, and maybe you're quicker turning a double play or something after a lot of practice. However for the most part, it's the same skills you've had since you came into the league. You can either field a groundball or you can't. You can either get to a groundball in the hole or you can't. You either have a Soriano arm or you don't. You either have quick reactions or you don't.
Now, when you're changing positions, obviously that's something you can improve. You're getting used to a position, like learning how to read the ball off the bat as a center fielder for example.
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