MLB News & Notes (other than Cubs or Sox)

[Runnys]

Why isn't there commensurate teeth gnashing for Josh Donaldson?

Exactly

[Kid]

Also, not for nothing, and Garza's an asshole who (happily) sucks now, but he wasn't terrible as a Cub, posting a 3.45 ERA.  Plus he was turned into Grimm, Ramirez, Olt, & Edwards.  So, my point is I don't think that trade even looks like crap in hindsight.

[BT]

 

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I said it on Brett's site, but we've got to stop beating ourselves up about Archer. We didn't draft him. We stole him from the Indians for Mark DeRosa. Yes, it would be better if we had him, but he was basically found money. And if we had him, there is every chance we don't have Kris Bryant. 

 

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What does Archer have to do with Bryant?

 

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If he is on the team, we win a few more games, have a better record, don't pick second, and don't get Bryant. 

 

And that's just one part of the butterfly effect of not trading for Garza. 

 

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We drafted Bryant in the 2013 draft. 2012 was Archer's debut for the Rays and he went 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in 6 games. I don't think he would have made much of an impact.

 

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He debuted for the Rays in 2012. You don't know when he comes up for the Cubs. You don't know how he develops for the Cubs. If they don't trade for Garza, then you assume they are rebuilding in 2011, and at that point they don't have much in the cupboard. Maybe the bring him up to showcase their prospects. 

 

The point is, it doesn't matter if Archer specifically wins more games for them. If they don't trade for Garza, there is every chance in the world they don't end up with EXACTLY the #2 pick in the 2013 draft, and don't draft Bryant. Maybe they end up with the first pick and take Appel. Maybe they get the 3rd pick, and end up with Gray. 

 

So in this world we DO have Bryant. And Grimm, and Ramirez and Edwards, and maybe even Olt. 

[Butcher]

I don't think our record would have been better and I don't think our FO would have taken Appel over Bryant in the draft if we had the #1 pick.

 

Do you think we're a better team with Bryant/Grimm/Ramirez/Olt over Archer?

 

Bryant/Grimm/Ramirez/Olt's WAR is 3.1 combined (Bryant is 2.2). Archer's is 3.5 (Archer + some other random bullpen guys and a bench guy is probably closer to 4).

 

Anyway...I'm absolutely thrilled we have Bryant. And we're 9 games over .500 on June 24, which is much better than I thought we'd be at this point. It's just interesting to think about the "what ifs."

[BT]

I don't think our record would have been better and I don't think our FO would have taken Appel over Bryant in the draft if we had the #1 pick.

 

Do you think we're a better team with Bryant/Grimm/Ramirez/Olt over Archer?

 

Bryant/Grimm/Ramirez/Olt's WAR is 3.1 combined (Bryant is 2.2). Archer's is 3.5 (Archer + some other random bullpen guys and a bench guy is probably closer to 4).

 

Anyway...I'm absolutely thrilled we have Bryant. And we're 9 games over .500 on June 24, which is much better than I thought we'd be at this point. It's just interesting to think about the "what ifs."

 

I'm almost positive reports had us ranking Appel #1 in that draft. Obviously we'll never know. Which is sort of my point. 

[BT]

and yes, I think we are better with Bryant/Grimm/Ramirez/Olt over Archer. You are comparing the WAR of a guy having a breakout season with a rookie and a bunch of players who have spent the majority of the season on the DL. We would be better with Archer for April-June of 2015, but for the rest of the season I could easily see the Cubs players outperforming Archer, and for the future I'll take the hitter of the pitcher every time. 

[Butcher]

and yes, I think we are better with Bryant/Grimm/Ramirez/Olt over Archer. You are comparing the WAR of a guy having a breakout season with a rookie and a bunch of players who have spent the majority of the season on the DL. We would be better with Archer for April-June of 2015, but for the rest of the season I could easily see the Cubs players outperforming Archer. 

I know this is a pointless argument, but it isn't really Bryant/Grimm/Ramirez/Olt vs. Archer. It's Bryant vs. Archer. Because there wouldn't be a void of bullpen guys if we didn't have Bryant. We'd have replacement-level bullpen guys (or slightly better, most likely) to fill the holes that Grimm and Ramirez left.

 

 

, and for the future I'll take the hitter of the pitcher every time

 

So you wouldn't trade Bryant straight-up for Archer?

[Butcher]

I'm not sure I would, but I would strongly consider it...

[Kid]

So you wouldn't trade Bryant straight-up for Archer?

Hell no.

[rok]

Me neither.

[jstraw]

Even if I would trade Bryant straight up for Appel (I wouldn't), I'd still draft Bryant over him. An arm that now looks likely to pan out was still a crap shoot two years earlier.

 

I'm not sure what sort of pitcher would have to be available for Theo to spend a first round pick on him.

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

So you wouldn't trade Bryant straight-up for Archer?

 

I'm positive, based on draft history, that our FO wouldn't.

[Runnys]

I'm sorry Butch, but, I don't trade Bryant for Archer. Not in a million years.

[Kid]

Archer's in his third essentially full season.  In 61 appearances through 2014, he had a cumulative 4.6 WAR.  Bryant is on pace for about a 5.6 WAR in his rookie year alone.

 

Archer may have figured it out (or he may just be on a very hot start to the season, though I think he's figured it out).  But you're comparing apples and oranges by comparing a third-year-player who will be 27 by the time the season is over with a 23-year-old rookie.  

 

Let's see how Bryant's 2017 WAR compares to Archer's 2015 WAR.

[Runnys]

Would you trade Rizzo for Bumgarner? If you say no then there is no way you trade Bryant for Archer.