MLB News & Notes (other than Cubs or Sox)

[CubbieBlues]

The following charts are to back up BT's claim of importance where a team picks in the draft (lest someone will argue that a good FO will find the diamonds later in the draft). The full article can be found at link.

 

[Coldneck]

Nice. I like those charts.  It would be interested what it would look like if extrapolated out a little farther. Maybe top 100 picks.

[MickKelleherWasMyHero]

A counteragrument why tanking a season isn't necessarily the best path:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-im-no...n-purpose/

 

I completely agree with the plan to stay away from big ticket free agents. Given the state of the FA market, the "big ticket" players should be players who are home grown. But the FO should be trying to find mid-tier FA's on two- or three-year deals and undervalued FA's, not necessarily to spin them at the deadline, but to make the team more watchable and possibly catch lightening in a bottle.

 

And, I think that was the plan for 2013 (Jackson was the mid-tier FA, Shierholtz was the diamond in the rough), but the struggles of the BP and Jackson sank the team, so they ditched players who weren't certain to be around in 2014. For 2014, I think we're going to see a lot of platooning, especially in the OF (basically trying to steal a page from the A's playbook).

[jstraw]

I think "we're watchable" would be an incredible marketing hook.

[BT]

A counteragrument why tanking a season isn't necessarily the best path:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-im-no...n-purpose/

 

I completely agree with the plan to stay away from big ticket free agents. Given the state of the FA market, the "big ticket" players should be players who are home grown. But the FO should be trying to find mid-tier FA's on two- or three-year deals and undervalued FA's, not necessarily to spin them at the deadline, but to make the team more watchable and possibly catch lightening in a bottle.

 

And, I think that was the plan for 2013 (Jackson was the mid-tier FA, Shierholtz was the diamond in the rough), but the struggles of the BP and Jackson sank the team, so they ditched players who weren't certain to be around in 2014. For 2014, I think we're going to see a lot of platooning, especially in the OF (basically trying to steal a page from the A's playbook).

 

I scanned that article, and unless I'm missing a major point, it doesn't pertain to the Cubs. They still have 50-75,000 people on the waiting list for season tickets, so they have about a 28,000 per game base of tickets sold that they will not fall under no matter what the circumstances. That article seems to make the point that tanking cost Marlins millions of fans at the gate. Yes, the Cubs won't draw the same as they would if they were winning the division, but that's not an option right now. Tanking the season won't drop their attendance to 1.6 million like it did the Marlins.

[MickKelleherWasMyHero]

 

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="MickKelleherWasMyHero" data-cid="208129" data-time="1376493134">
<div>
A counteragrument why tanking a season isn't necessarily the best path:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-im-no...n-purpose/

 

I completely agree with the plan to stay away from big ticket free agents. Given the state of the FA market, the "big ticket" players should be players who are home grown. But the FO should be trying to find mid-tier FA's on two- or three-year deals and undervalued FA's, not necessarily to spin them at the deadline, but to make the team more watchable and possibly catch lightening in a bottle.

 

And, I think that was the plan for 2013 (Jackson was the mid-tier FA, Shierholtz was the diamond in the rough), but the struggles of the BP and Jackson sank the team, so they ditched players who weren't certain to be around in 2014. For 2014, I think we're going to see a lot of platooning, especially in the OF (basically trying to steal a page from the A's playbook).

 

I scanned that article, and unless I'm missing a major point, it doesn't pertain to the Cubs. They still have 50-75,000 people on the waiting list for season tickets, so they have about a 28,000 per game base of tickets sold that they will not fall under no matter what the circumstances. That article seems to make the point that tanking cost Marlins millions of fans at the gate. Yes, the Cubs won't draw the same as they would if they were winning the division, but that's not an option right now. Tanking the season won't drop their attendance to 1.6 million like it did the Marlins.

 

</div>
</blockquote>
 

The loss in attendance and TV ratings was a secondary point. The primary point, I think, is that, even with advanced statistical analysis, there's still a lot of gray area when it comes to projecting a team's record for a season. Given the Orioles record in close games in 2012, it was expected they'd fall back to earth. But they haven't. The A's are always underestimated. The Blue Jays, Angels, and Nationals were supposed to be powerhouses, but all fell flat. Tanking a season--not trying to improve the team in the short term--disregards the possibility that you might be able to field a solid team without breaking the bank or screwing up the future.

 

In retrospect, I don't think the FO was tanking 2013. They signed Jackson, Fujikawa, and an undervalued Schierholtz. It didn't pan out, so they dumped players for value. They seem to be shooting for that 78- to 83-win team that gets a little lucky.

 

For 2014, it wouldn't surprise me if they look for undervalued BP arms and maybe another SP, and try to take advantage of platoon splits in the OF. If it works, they'll be buyers in 2014 at the deadline; if not, same as before, with Spellcheck being put on the block if he hasn't signed an extension by then and some team offers them a good return.

[CubbieBlues]

95% of the time teams will fall within 2 standard deviations. So, if they are a .500 team (which I would argue they were at the beginning of the year) 95% of the time they would fall between 94 & 64 wins. and 68% of the time they would have between 87 & 74 wins. We are outside the 2 standard deviations range as with our current winning percentage we will win 70 games this year (I realize it can't really be extrapolated that way). So, as I see it, we have been about as bad as we could of possibly been this year.

 

*standard deviation is 6.36 for a .500 team.

[jstraw]

That is so sexy.

[1060Ivy]

Alf with 7 RBIs tonight through 6 innings and believe it was 6 RBIs yesterday.

 

Guess he still can carry a team for short stints.

[Kid]

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[funkster]

WOW

[jstraw]

Now that's something you don't see every day.

[jstraw]

Sadly, this was a minor league game.

 

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[chshdsck]

Carrie Muskat ‏@<b>CarrieMuskat</b> <a class="" href="https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/368005278714703872" title="8:44 AM - 15 Aug 13">2m</a>

<p class=""><a class="" href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Cubs&src=hash">#<b>Cubs</b></a> have scored 10 runs in their last 7 home games. Alfonso Soriano has 13 RBIs in his 2 Gs w/Yankees.

<p class=""> 

<p class=""> 

<p class="">Yeesh...

[Kid]

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