Down on the Farm

[Coldneck]

From John Sickels site MinorLeagueBall.com

Link - Top 20 Prospects

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Chicago Cubs Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Nov 29, 2008 4:07 PM EST


All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.



1) Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+: Hopefully the home run power should start to come in 2009. Great contact hitting skills and still very young.

2) Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Grade B: I have no idea what to expect here. Could be great, could be horrible, track record very erratic.

3) Ryan Flaherty, SS, Grade B: Looks like a solid all-around player to me.

4) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Grade B-: High ceiling due to fastball and slider, command issues may slow progress.

5) Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Grade B-: Scouting reports look great, but want to see some numbers before ranking higher.

6) Jay Jackson, RHP, Grade B-: I LOVE this guy…good athlete, former philosophy major, throws hard, throws strikes, great pro debut. I think he is underrated by other sources.

7) Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade C+: Still worried about his plate discipline.

8) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C+: Good glove, hits well in flashes, maybe a Miguel Olivo type?

9) Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for Tommy John.

10) Aaron Shafer, RHP, Grade C+: Wichita State product with sharp command. Elbow injury cost him velocity.

11) Starlin Castro, SS, Grade C+: Intriguing toolsy infielder had strong AZL debut. A sleeper.

12) Junior Lake, SS, Grade C+: Intriguing toolsy infielder had strong AZL debut. A sleeper.

13) Dan McDaniel, RHP, Grade C+: Lots of strikeouts and grounders at Boise. Command an issue. Could rank as high as 10th.

14) Micah Hoffpauir, 1B, Grade C: Too old to rank higher but he has a major league bat. Where does he play?

15) Esmailin Caridad, RHP, Grade C: Low strikeout rate a concern, but I think he can do well in relief.

16) Don Veal, LHP, Grade C: Stock has fallen massively due to command and mechanical issues. Not protected for Rule 5, which tells you a lot.

17) Josh Kroeger, OF, Grade C: He finally learned some plate discipline and has done well in Triple-A. Getting old for a prospect.

18) Tony Thomas, 2B, Grade C: Strike zone judgment collapsed in Florida State League.

19) Chris Carpenter, RHP, Grade C: Command problems and poor health record reduce stock, but he throws very hard and has upside if he can stay away from doctors.

20) Mitch Atkins, RHP, Grade C: Possibly a fifth starter type if he can sharpen command more.



Others include Darwin Barney, Justin Bristow, Matt Cerda, Hung-Wen Chen, Dumas Garcia, Brandon Guyer, Josh Harrison, Dylan Johnston, Casey Lambert, Alex Maestri, Jovan Rosa, Drew Rundle, Marquez Smith, Logan Watkins, and Ty Wright. Most of these guys could rank anywhere from 14-20 depending on what you are looking for.



If there is someone else that you really think should be included, make your case. I always miss someone. Space is limited and some of the players above will probably get cut if I have to add someone else.



I really like Jay Jackson and I think he is going to surprise a lot of people. Colvin is a weird case, he actually played worse when he was trying to work the count, and better when he went back to hacking, as Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus has pointed out. I have some more thoughts about that in the book.



SYSTEM IN BRIEF

The Cubs system has thinned out, and there is no one with impact hitting potential at the higher levels. Guys like Vitters, Flaherty, and the AZL tools guys give hope that that could change in the future. Samardzija is completely unpredictable, he could be the second coming of Bobby Jenks or he could totally flame out. It wouldn’t’ surprise me if Cashner ended up the same way, alternating good and bad runs and leaving everyone scratching their heads.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Clapp]

2 things. Why are we still considering Hoffpauir a prospect, and I saw enough of Shark last year to know he won't be "horrible". The movement and velocity of his fastball, to go with an improving splitter will make him effective at least. I don't know if he has enough quality pitches to be an effective starter yet, but he'll be at least solid as a reliever.

[kbwsb]

Man, that's a bleak read.
I of course have high hopes for Vitters, but it should be mentioned that he was drafted (controversially at the time, at least on this site) one pick before Matt Weiters, who is now considered the #1 prospect in the world.

Still, it's tough to bitch about it since we have Soto.
Go Vitters!

[Mikey]

Ryan Flaherty, SS, Hak-Ju Lee, SS


How far away from the Bigs are they? 2010?

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=8065:date=Dec 31 2008, 10:41 PM:name=Mikey)-->QUOTE (Mikey @ Dec 31 2008, 10:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Ryan Flaherty, SS, Hak-Ju Lee, SS


How far away from the Bigs are they? 2010?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Flaherty was just drafted last year and played in low A ball. It could be a year or two before he even gets a long look in spring training if he keeps performing well. I would guess he won't be a serious consideration till 2012.

Lee was sent to Australia for camp last year. He's only 18 or 19 years old and he'll be seeing his first action in the States this year. My guess is he'll spend most of his time in AZL and he'll be in the minors as long as Vitters and probably longer. Keep an eye on him though, he's a HUGE talent and if he picks things up well in the US, I am really excited about what he can do for this team a few years down the road.

[Scarey]

Just wanted to add on what I thought of these rankings.

I know there's guys like Colvin and Cashner that are highly rated on a lot of hype and I understand that's just how it is, but I think there's guys like Marquez Smith and Hung-wen Chen who just don't get enough credit. I don't know if they should really be rated above the Colvin's of the world, but I see plenty more potential in them then Colvin.

I would love to see a ranking put together on highest ceilings or something like that.

[Coldneck]

<!--quoteo(post=8083:date=Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just wanted to add on what I thought of these rankings.

I know there's guys like Colvin and Cashner that are highly rated on a lot of hype and I understand that's just how it is, but I think there's guys like Marquez Smith and Hung-wen Chen who just don't get enough credit. I don't know if they should really be rated above the Colvin's of the world, but I see plenty more potential in them then Colvin.

I would love to see a ranking put together on highest ceilings or something like that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Colvin sucks and will never make it to MLB. I think most people on this planet agree with me on that.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=8085:date=Jan 1 2009, 11:57 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Jan 1 2009, 11:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=8083:date=Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just wanted to add on what I thought of these rankings.

I know there's guys like Colvin and Cashner that are highly rated on a lot of hype and I understand that's just how it is, but I think there's guys like Marquez Smith and Hung-wen Chen who just don't get enough credit. I don't know if they should really be rated above the Colvin's of the world, but I see plenty more potential in them then Colvin.

I would love to see a ranking put together on highest ceilings or something like that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Colvin sucks and will never make it to MLB. I think most people on this planet agree with me on that.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Because he's a pretty good defensive player and bats lefty, I think he'll make it to the bigs, but not in the way most of us thought when he was drafted.

[Coldneck]

<!--quoteo(post=8087:date=Jan 1 2009, 12:16 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 1 2009, 12:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=8085:date=Jan 1 2009, 11:57 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Jan 1 2009, 11:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=8083:date=Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just wanted to add on what I thought of these rankings.

I know there's guys like Colvin and Cashner that are highly rated on a lot of hype and I understand that's just how it is, but I think there's guys like Marquez Smith and Hung-wen Chen who just don't get enough credit. I don't know if they should really be rated above the Colvin's of the world, but I see plenty more potential in them then Colvin.

I would love to see a ranking put together on highest ceilings or something like that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Colvin sucks and will never make it to MLB. I think most people on this planet agree with me on that.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Because he's a pretty good defensive player and bats lefty, I think he'll make it to the bigs, but not in the way most of us thought when he was drafted.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

The way I remember it, pretty much everyone was pissed when he was drafted. He was projected to go in round 3-5. We only had a 1st and a 5th (Samardzija) so we took him with the 13th overall pick.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=8102:date=Jan 1 2009, 01:43 PM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Jan 1 2009, 01:43 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=8087:date=Jan 1 2009, 12:16 PM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 1 2009, 12:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=8085:date=Jan 1 2009, 11:57 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Jan 1 2009, 11:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=8083:date=Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Jan 1 2009, 11:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just wanted to add on what I thought of these rankings.

I know there's guys like Colvin and Cashner that are highly rated on a lot of hype and I understand that's just how it is, but I think there's guys like Marquez Smith and Hung-wen Chen who just don't get enough credit. I don't know if they should really be rated above the Colvin's of the world, but I see plenty more potential in them then Colvin.

I would love to see a ranking put together on highest ceilings or something like that.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Colvin sucks and will never make it to MLB. I think most people on this planet agree with me on that.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Because he's a pretty good defensive player and bats lefty, I think he'll make it to the bigs, but not in the way most of us thought when he was drafted.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

The way I remember it, pretty much everyone was pissed when he was drafted. He was projected to go in round 3-5. We only had a 1st and a 5th (Samardzija) so we took him with the 13th overall pick.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Yeah, people weren't happy, but after the draft we were all thinking (or hoping, I don't know) that he would develop into a very good player. People weren't initially happy, but most warmed up to him.

[Auz]

I am just reinforcing in my brain that Samardzija was really our number 1 pick from that year... Less depressing that way.

[coolpoppa]

Don't forget the three amazing prospects we got for Derosa.

Yeah, the state of the farm system is bleak... it's obvious that we're trying to win now.... but, unfortunately, we aren't making the moves needed to win now.... at least not yet.

I wonder what we're going to do with Hoff.... if we aren't going to play him... why not spin him off for something that we could use?

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=8258:date=Jan 2 2009, 09:54 AM:name=coolpoppa)-->QUOTE (coolpoppa @ Jan 2 2009, 09:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Don't forget the three amazing prospects we got for Derosa.

Yeah, the state of the farm system is bleak... it's obvious that we're trying to win now.... but, unfortunately, we aren't making the moves needed to win now.... at least not yet.

I wonder what we're going to do with Hoff.... if we aren't going to play him... why not spin him off for something that we could use?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

The farm really isn't that bad. We have some good players lower in the system with high ceilings. The problem is we don't have any prospects that are close to the majors that can contribute and that, a lot of times, is how systems are judged.

I could see us having a decent farm system next year depending on if some players progress well enough this year.

Also, I just don't think Hoffpauir is worth anything and he's better off as emergency depth for us.

[ColoradoCub]

Kyler Burke's omission from that list is highly disappointing.

[Ronsantorocks]

Another move in the farm I'm sure we've all seen in Ryno gettin the call to Tennessee. Im excited about seeing Ryno move up the farm.