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Ace · 01-08-2009, 07:27 PM

So I wrote up a long (thoughtful?) piece about the Milton Bradley signing, and ways to gauge how much he really costs. It's available at Bleacher Nation, but since I wrote it, I don't mind violating my own copyright and I don't want you guys to have to go there to read it if you don't want. I think some of the numbers are kind of interesting.

QUOTE We’ve all heard the greatest concern when it comes to Milton Bradley (well, except for that whole “potentially crazy” thing, but the Cubs have dealt with it admirably for the past several years…) - he’s never healthy. He can’t stay on the field. He’ll only play 100 games. And so it goes.

In fact, that is what has already become the most resounding criticism of the three-year $30 million deal the Cubs just gave Bradley. Sure, he’s great when he plays, but is he really worth that much when he’s always on the bench?

It made me wonder. How do we know what he’s really worth if he’s not going to play a full season?

I wanted to craft a way to compare players’ salaries in an apples to apples way - sure, we can all look at two players and their respective salaries, and then debate the merits of who is worth what. But when one guy plays 140 games a year and the other plays 160, how often do we really factor the loss of 20 games into the discussion?

So let’s really take a look behind player salaries and find out just how much the Cubs are paying Milton Bradley, and then compare it against some other big time contracts. The results may surprise you.

First, some assumptions/stipulations: a.) I’m only comparing hitters to hitters; b.) I’m using averages from the past four seasons (where available); c.) I’m awesome; and d.) I’m using plate appearances (literally means number of times a guy comes up to bat) instead of games played because having just one at bat in a game shows up in the stat sheet as one game played, but that’s hardly the same thing as playing a full nine with five at bats.

So how much are the Cubs paying Milton Bradley per plate appearance? Well, in Bradley’s previous five years, he’s had 509, 244, 405, and 315 plate appearances. Add ‘em up and divide by four, and you get an average of 368 (and change) plate appearances per year.

Bradley’s new deal with the Cubs (subject to some as-of-yet to be announced performance bonuses or cost savings to the Cubs built into the contract) will pay him $10 million in 2009. Now some math, close your eyes if it hurts: 10,000,000 / 368 = 27,174.

So assuming an average number of plate appearances for Milton Bradley in 2009, the Chicago Cubs will be paying him $27,174 per plate appearance.

At this point, you’re thinking three things: 1.) Holy shit; 2.) I barely make that in an entire year; and 3.) That doesn’t really tell me a whole lot.

Well I’m with you on 1 and 2, but just give me a second on number 3, all right?

I’ll spare you the drugstore mathology for the remaining calculations, and just give you what you want: the cost per plate appearance of some other major league hitters who either have large contracts or are recently-signed outfielders (based, again, on the last four years of plate appearances, and their effective salary for 2009 (spreading signing bonuses (boni?) and backloading over the life of the contract).

Albert Pujols ($14.2 M) - $21, 514 per plate appearance.

Alex Rodriguez ($27.5 M) - $40,862 per plate appearance (come on, you knew he’d be the highest).

Mark Teixiera ($22.5 M) - $33,137 per plate appearance.

Matt Holiday ($11.5 M) - $18,196 per plate appearance.

Torii Hunter ($18 M) - $31,524 per plate appearance.

Aaron Rowand ($12 M) - $20,168 per plate appearance.

Raul Ibanez ($10.5 M) - $15,373 per plate appearance.

Pat Burrell ($8 M) - $12,903 per plate appearance.

And a couple Cubs for good measure:

Aramis Ramirez ($15 M) - $25,338 per plate appearance.

Alfonso Soriano ($17 M) - $26,856 per plate appearance.

So there it is. Based on my calculations, Milton Bradley is one of the most expensive hitters in baseball and is more expensive than some guys who are - objectively and subjectively - much better hitters. Additionally, man alive is he way more expensive than the other two major free agent outfielders to sign thus far (Ibanez and Burrell - Burrell, in particular, looks like a freaking steal).

But, he’s hardly the biggest rip off out there (off of my semi-arbitrarily created list, Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand scream rip city).

Now before you say it, let me concede it: these numbers are projections. Bradley could bust out a 700 plate appearance season, and the Cubs would make out like bandits. But it’s not likely.

Conclusion? I don’t really have one. I think the numbers speak for themselves. Let’s hope Milton is as dominant as he was last year, or at least plays as much as he did last year.

Clapp · 01-08-2009, 07:48 PM

Good breakdown. This is either going to be a great deal or it's going to look worse than the Fuk deal.

kbwsb · 01-08-2009, 07:49 PM

Good work, Ace.
I wonder if Lou/Jim honestly think that it's merely a 10-year fluke that Bradley averages 100 games per year? Or do they really think it's been totally bad luck, and that he'll suit up for 150+ for the next 3 seasons? I would like to know their thinking on that.

And ace, to answer one of your questions: for the other 62 games on the schedule, RF will be manned by some below-average clown like Fuk or Miles. I think that should be taken into account when discussing this FA signing.

savant · 01-08-2009, 08:12 PM

Fangraghs had a pretty interesting article about this in the last couple of weeks. They went about it a bit differently, they are trying to put a dollar value on every players performance based on the salaries of players from the previous year. When I have more time I will post a link to the article. They gave Bradley a value of $14,000,000 for last year.

veryzer · 01-09-2009, 11:38 AM

ace? how do you find the time to do lawyer stuff and satisfy hot wife?

Tailgater · 01-09-2009, 12:50 PM

If I were Pujols or his agent, i'd be holding out for a new contract based on that breakdown.
Good work Ace!

Ace · 01-09-2009, 01:33 PM

My wife is very unsatisfied, tommy. Very.

Actually, doing SOI, the Brickyard and now BN pretty much takes up all my free time, which she isn't thrilled about. But I enjoy it; just have to get the balance down.

Coldneck · 01-09-2009, 03:02 PM

QUOTE (Ace @ Jan 9 2009, 12:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>My wife is very unsatisfied, tommy. Very.

Actually, doing SOI, the Brickyard and now BN pretty much takes up all my free time, which she isn't thrilled about. But I enjoy it; just have to get the balance down.

A word of advice from experience. Don't neglect your hot wifey. One day she might decide she'd rather be someone else's hot wifey. Spend as much time with her as you can.

savant · 01-10-2009, 01:14 PM

QUOTE (Ace @ Jan 8 2009, 05:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>So I wrote up a long (thoughtful?) piece about the Milton Bradley signing, and ways to gauge how much he really costs. It's available at Bleacher Nation, but since I wrote it, I don't mind violating my own copyright and I don't want you guys to have to go there to read it if you don't want. I think some of the numbers are kind of interesting.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE We’ve all heard the greatest concern when it comes to Milton Bradley (well, except for that whole “potentially crazy” thing, but the Cubs have dealt with it admirably for the past several years…) - he’s never healthy. He can’t stay on the field. He’ll only play 100 games. And so it goes.

In fact, that is what has already become the most resounding criticism of the three-year $30 million deal the Cubs just gave Bradley. Sure, he’s great when he plays, but is he really worth that much when he’s always on the bench?

It made me wonder. How do we know what he’s really worth if he’s not going to play a full season?

Ace, your blog is looking great. I love how I am able to use it for almost every new Cubs article. Could you go ahead and add a link on the right side, I have you bookmarked but it would make it easier.
I wanted to craft a way to compare players’ salaries in an apples to apples way - sure, we can all look at two players and their respective salaries, and then debate the merits of who is worth what. But when one guy plays 140 games a year and the other plays 160, how often do we really factor the loss of 20 games into the discussion?

So let’s really take a look behind player salaries and find out just how much the Cubs are paying Milton Bradley, and then compare it against some other big time contracts. The results may surprise you.

First, some assumptions/stipulations: a.) I’m only comparing hitters to hitters; b.) I’m using averages from the past four seasons (where available); c.) I’m awesome; and d.) I’m using plate appearances (literally means number of times a guy comes up to bat) instead of games played because having just one at bat in a game shows up in the stat sheet as one game played, but that’s hardly the same thing as playing a full nine with five at bats.

So how much are the Cubs paying Milton Bradley per plate appearance? Well, in Bradley’s previous five years, he’s had 509, 244, 405, and 315 plate appearances. Add ‘em up and divide by four, and you get an average of 368 (and change) plate appearances per year.

Bradley’s new deal with the Cubs (subject to some as-of-yet to be announced performance bonuses or cost savings to the Cubs built into the contract) will pay him $10 million in 2009. Now some math, close your eyes if it hurts: 10,000,000 / 368 = 27,174.

So assuming an average number of plate appearances for Milton Bradley in 2009, the Chicago Cubs will be paying him $27,174 per plate appearance.

At this point, you’re thinking three things: 1.) Holy shit; 2.) I barely make that in an entire year; and 3.) That doesn’t really tell me a whole lot.

Well I’m with you on 1 and 2, but just give me a second on number 3, all right?

I’ll spare you the drugstore mathology for the remaining calculations, and just give you what you want: the cost per plate appearance of some other major league hitters who either have large contracts or are recently-signed outfielders (based, again, on the last four years of plate appearances, and their effective salary for 2009 (spreading signing bonuses (boni?) and backloading over the life of the contract).

Albert Pujols ($14.2 M) - $21, 514 per plate appearance.

Alex Rodriguez ($27.5 M) - $40,862 per plate appearance (come on, you knew he’d be the highest).

Mark Teixiera ($22.5 M) - $33,137 per plate appearance.

Matt Holiday ($11.5 M) - $18,196 per plate appearance.

Torii Hunter ($18 M) - $31,524 per plate appearance.

Aaron Rowand ($12 M) - $20,168 per plate appearance.

Raul Ibanez ($10.5 M) - $15,373 per plate appearance.

Pat Burrell ($8 M) - $12,903 per plate appearance.

And a couple Cubs for good measure:

Aramis Ramirez ($15 M) - $25,338 per plate appearance.

Alfonso Soriano ($17 M) - $26,856 per plate appearance.

So there it is. Based on my calculations, Milton Bradley is one of the most expensive hitters in baseball and is more expensive than some guys who are - objectively and subjectively - much better hitters. Additionally, man alive is he way more expensive than the other two major free agent outfielders to sign thus far (Ibanez and Burrell - Burrell, in particular, looks like a freaking steal).

But, he’s hardly the biggest rip off out there (off of my semi-arbitrarily created list, Torii Hunter and Aaron Rowand scream rip city).

Now before you say it, let me concede it: these numbers are projections. Bradley could bust out a 700 plate appearance season, and the Cubs would make out like bandits. But it’s not likely.

Conclusion? I don’t really have one. I think the numbers speak for themselves. Let’s hope Milton is as dominant as he was last year, or at least plays as much as he did last year.
</div>

Ace · 01-10-2009, 01:24 PM

Did something mess up your post, savant?

savant · 01-10-2009, 01:46 PM

Yes. I just said I love how your blogg is laid out. It is like Pro Sports Daily. I love that I can go to one place and see pretty much everything from the web about the Cubs on a daily basis. Also, even though I have it bookmarked, could you add the link to the right side of TFC?

Ace · 01-10-2009, 01:48 PM

QUOTE (savant @ Jan 10 2009, 12:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Yes. I just said I love how your blogg is laid out. It is like Pro Sports Daily. I love that I can go to one place and see pretty much everything from the web about the Cubs on a daily basis. Also, even though I have it bookmarked, could you add the link to the right side of TFC?

Thanks, Savant. That's exactly what I hope BN can be for people. A one stop place to get all the Cubs news.

And, I mean, I can add a link to the right side if you twist my arm.... [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif[/img]

savant · 01-10-2009, 01:49 PM

twist

Ace · 01-10-2009, 01:50 PM

QUOTE (savant @ Jan 10 2009, 12:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>twist

You've always been my favorite.

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