02-05-2009, 05:29 AM
Since neither Butch nor I can come to grips with the fact that we traded DeRosa, I've been ruminating on a possible replacement. Miles doesn't count; he's like Koyie Hill...yeah, he can kind of do the job, somewhat, but we're trying to win a championship here.
Garciaparra is reportedly looking for a low-money deal. He can play multiple positions, he likes Hendry and Chicago, and Mia Hamm told me she'd blow me at the Drake if Nomar signs with the Cubs.
Here's a pretty good article claiming he'll likely be about equal in value to Jeter in 2009:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Is Nomar more valuable than Jeter?
By Matt Meyers
ESPN The Magazine
Younger readers might not remember, but there was a time not too long ago when Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra were the "Holy Trinity" of baseball shortstops, stirring debates in bars across America. It was a modern-day version of Willie, Mickey or the Duke.
The debate was rendered moot in 2004 when A-Rod moved to third base to accommodate Jeter upon joining the Yankees, while injuries have prevented Garciaparra from playing in more than 122 games in any season since. Because of the injuries,<b> Garciaparra has fallen below the radar to some degree, and he is currently a free agent looking for a bargain-basement deal as a utilityman.</b> But here's the thing a lot of people haven't noticed. With the exception of a particularly bad 2007 season with the Dodgers, Garciaparra has remained an effective hitter when he's healthy enough to play. And though Jeter has outperformed him in every season since he was traded from the Red Sox to the Cubs in 2004, does that mean he is going to do it again in 2009? The answer is not as clear cut as you might think.
Below are each player's 2009 weighted mean projection for batting average, OBP and slugging, based on PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' projection system. Keep in mind that these are adjusted for home ballpark, so Nomar's numbers are based on Dodger Stadium, as he has yet to sign with a new club. And Jeter's are based on the old Yankee Stadium, as we don't yet know how his new stadium will play.
2009 PECOTA projections
Player below BA OBP SLG Age
Derek Jeter .288 .353 .383 35 (in June)
Garciaparra .274 .335 .409 36 (in July)
That's pretty darn similar, not to mention the fact that Dodger Stadium was the second-worst hitters park in baseball last season, while Yankee Stadium was middle of the pack. <b>Put Nomar in a hitter's haven, and suddenly he's looking a lot better.</b>
Any discussion of Nomar comes with the usual playing time caveats, as Jeter's durability will almost surely allow him to outproduce Garciaparra simply by staying in the lineup. But because of Garciaparra's ability to continue to hit for power, he's as valuable (if not more valuable) than Jeter when he's healthy enough to play. Had he qualified, Garciaparra's .466 slugging last season would've ranked sixth among MLB shortstops. And if he is able to match his PECOTA projection, than that's a higher OPS (.744) than Michael Young, Miguel Tejada and Edgar Renteria had last year.
<b>For those who think Garciaparra is no longer a shortstop, he actually played 31 games there last season</b>. Based on Baseball Prospectus' fielding rate metric, he was three runs below average per 100 games. That's a small sample size, but for his career he is two runs above average per 100 games, so he was right in line with that. In case you were wondering, Jeter was 13 runs below average per 100 games in 2008, and six below for his career.
My point here is not to take down Jeter, but simply to demonstrate that if we are going to assume that Jeter is still a useful player, then Garciaparra is too,<b> particularly when you factor in that he's going to make about 1/10 of Jeter's $20 million salary and can fill in at first base, third base and left field.</b> Even putting aside his versatility, there are probably about a dozen MLB teams who would be better off with Nomar at short.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Thoughts?
Garciaparra is reportedly looking for a low-money deal. He can play multiple positions, he likes Hendry and Chicago, and Mia Hamm told me she'd blow me at the Drake if Nomar signs with the Cubs.
Here's a pretty good article claiming he'll likely be about equal in value to Jeter in 2009:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Is Nomar more valuable than Jeter?
By Matt Meyers
ESPN The Magazine
Younger readers might not remember, but there was a time not too long ago when Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra were the "Holy Trinity" of baseball shortstops, stirring debates in bars across America. It was a modern-day version of Willie, Mickey or the Duke.
The debate was rendered moot in 2004 when A-Rod moved to third base to accommodate Jeter upon joining the Yankees, while injuries have prevented Garciaparra from playing in more than 122 games in any season since. Because of the injuries,<b> Garciaparra has fallen below the radar to some degree, and he is currently a free agent looking for a bargain-basement deal as a utilityman.</b> But here's the thing a lot of people haven't noticed. With the exception of a particularly bad 2007 season with the Dodgers, Garciaparra has remained an effective hitter when he's healthy enough to play. And though Jeter has outperformed him in every season since he was traded from the Red Sox to the Cubs in 2004, does that mean he is going to do it again in 2009? The answer is not as clear cut as you might think.
Below are each player's 2009 weighted mean projection for batting average, OBP and slugging, based on PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' projection system. Keep in mind that these are adjusted for home ballpark, so Nomar's numbers are based on Dodger Stadium, as he has yet to sign with a new club. And Jeter's are based on the old Yankee Stadium, as we don't yet know how his new stadium will play.
2009 PECOTA projections
Player below BA OBP SLG Age
Derek Jeter .288 .353 .383 35 (in June)
Garciaparra .274 .335 .409 36 (in July)
That's pretty darn similar, not to mention the fact that Dodger Stadium was the second-worst hitters park in baseball last season, while Yankee Stadium was middle of the pack. <b>Put Nomar in a hitter's haven, and suddenly he's looking a lot better.</b>
Any discussion of Nomar comes with the usual playing time caveats, as Jeter's durability will almost surely allow him to outproduce Garciaparra simply by staying in the lineup. But because of Garciaparra's ability to continue to hit for power, he's as valuable (if not more valuable) than Jeter when he's healthy enough to play. Had he qualified, Garciaparra's .466 slugging last season would've ranked sixth among MLB shortstops. And if he is able to match his PECOTA projection, than that's a higher OPS (.744) than Michael Young, Miguel Tejada and Edgar Renteria had last year.
<b>For those who think Garciaparra is no longer a shortstop, he actually played 31 games there last season</b>. Based on Baseball Prospectus' fielding rate metric, he was three runs below average per 100 games. That's a small sample size, but for his career he is two runs above average per 100 games, so he was right in line with that. In case you were wondering, Jeter was 13 runs below average per 100 games in 2008, and six below for his career.
My point here is not to take down Jeter, but simply to demonstrate that if we are going to assume that Jeter is still a useful player, then Garciaparra is too,<b> particularly when you factor in that he's going to make about 1/10 of Jeter's $20 million salary and can fill in at first base, third base and left field.</b> Even putting aside his versatility, there are probably about a dozen MLB teams who would be better off with Nomar at short.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Thoughts?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
