BP projects Cubs to win 95 games

[Fly]

Link

Unwritten but assumed is the prediction that the Cubs get swept in the NLDS.

[phan]

we're DOOMED!

[ColoradoCub]

Interesting... they have us leading baseball in runs scored and leading the NL in OBP.

[ColoradoCub]

Here are the PECOTA projections:

bradley: 294/402/525 (EqA: .311)
soto: 288/370/519 (.297)
soriano: 281/348/538 (.294)
ramirez: 288/363/509 (.292)
fukudome: 286/386/439 (.287)
lee: 289/369/464 (.285) -- only 19 HRs
hoffpauir: 261/327/489 (.273)
fontenot: 278/356/440 (.273)
theriot: 283/359/350 (.256)
johnson: 276/337/405 (.256)
gathright: 266/337/312 (.247)
miles: 280/327/335 (.238)
bako: 234/310/332 (.221)

others of interest:
edmonds: 265/363/491 (.288)
derosa: 269/354/414 (.275)
pie: 274/333/435 (.263)
cedeno: 262/316/385 (.242)
blanco: 242/289/344 (.216)

[ColoradoCub]

And for comparison's sake, I looked up their projections for last season:

The first PECOTA projected standings were completed by Baseball Prospectus. The Depth Charts have also been completed (subscription may be required for both links).

The NL Central according to PECOTA:

Chicago Cubs: 89-73
Milwaukee Brewers: 87-75
Cincinnati Reds: 79-83
Houston Astros: 74-88
St. Louis Cardinals: 72-90
Pittsburgh Pirates: 71-91

A few notes

* The 89-73 record is 2nd best in the NL behind the Mets (96-66)
* The Cubs projected batting line is .274/.343/.452
* They’re projected to score 845 runs (only the Rockies in the NL with more)
* 5th fewest in runs allowed in the NL
* Cubs .343 OBP is 2nd to the Rockies .351
* Projected .452 slugging highest in the NL
* Projected division winners: Mets, Cubs, D-backs (tie at 86-76 with Dodgers), Yankees, Indians (tie at 89-73 with Tigers), and Angels
* Projected Wild Card team: Brewers and Red Sox
* If the playoffs began today, based on these projections, the Cubs would host Arizona in the NLDS while Milwaukee would travel to New York to face the Mets

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->fukudome: 286/386/439<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/spit.gif[/img]

[bz]

<!--quoteo(post=17073:date=Feb 10 2009, 11:33 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 10 2009, 11:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->fukudome: 286/386/439<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/spit.gif[/img]
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm having a hard time picturing him getting just one hit.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=17080:date=Feb 10 2009, 11:54 AM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Feb 10 2009, 11:54 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17073:date=Feb 10 2009, 11:33 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 10 2009, 11:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->fukudome: 286/386/439<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/spit.gif[/img]
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'm having a hard time picturing him getting just one hit.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]
We're in the same boat. My enduring image of Fukudome is him flailing away at a breaking pitch, low and way, while spinning himself into the ground.

[Runnys]

<!--quoteo(post=17073:date=Feb 10 2009, 11:33 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 10 2009, 11:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->fukudome: 286/386/439<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/spit.gif[/img]
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


If Fuk does that we might score 1000 runs [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif[/img]

[Clapp]

Earlier today it had us winning 96 games and scoring 6 more runs. I'd be really surprised if the Brewers won 83 games. I see they have Houston for 66 now, it was 67 earlier today. What the fuck? I know Houston's rotation won't be as good... but 20 games worse? Ridiculous. 79 wins for the Reds? Don't see it.

[Runnys]

<!--quoteo(post=17091:date=Feb 10 2009, 12:48 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 10 2009, 12:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Earlier today it had us winning 96 games and scoring 6 more runs. I'd be really surprised if the Brewers won 83 games. I see they have Houston for 66 now, it was 67 earlier today. What the fuck? I know Houston's rotation won't be as good... but 20 games worse? Ridiculous. 79 wins for the Reds? Don't see it.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I think the Reds have a better chance at 83 wins than the Brewers.

[PcB]

I think Fukudome will have a decent year...he's still my homie. Clapp I'm looking at you on this one. I'm wearing it right now actually.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=17201:date=Feb 10 2009, 07:31 PM:name=PcB)-->QUOTE (PcB @ Feb 10 2009, 07:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think Fukudome will have a decent year...he's still my homie. Clapp I'm looking at you on this one. I'm wearing it right now actually.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I won't wear it again in public until he's hitting over .260.

But really, I think he'll have a decent year as well. That projection is absolutely outrageous. Could he do it? Yeah, but I'm certainly not going to bet on it.

[PcB]

<!--quoteo(post=17212:date=Feb 10 2009, 08:46 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 10 2009, 08:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17201:date=Feb 10 2009, 07:31 PM:name=PcB)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (PcB @ Feb 10 2009, 07:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think Fukudome will have a decent year...he's still my homie. Clapp I'm looking at you on this one. I'm wearing it right now actually.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I won't wear it again in public until he's hitting over .260.

But really, I think he'll have a decent year as well. That projection is absolutely outrageous. Could he do it? Yeah, but I'm certainly not going to bet on it.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I wouldn't bet on it either, it's just a hunch.

Are you watching MLB Net right now?

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=17213:date=Feb 10 2009, 07:47 PM:name=PcB)-->QUOTE (PcB @ Feb 10 2009, 07:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17212:date=Feb 10 2009, 08:46 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 10 2009, 08:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17201:date=Feb 10 2009, 07:31 PM:name=PcB)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (PcB @ Feb 10 2009, 07:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think Fukudome will have a decent year...he's still my homie. Clapp I'm looking at you on this one. I'm wearing it right now actually.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I won't wear it again in public until he's hitting over .260.

But really, I think he'll have a decent year as well. That projection is absolutely outrageous. Could he do it? Yeah, but I'm certainly not going to bet on it.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I wouldn't bet on it either, it's just a hunch.

Are you watching MLB Net right now?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Not at the moment. I was just watching some of that Baseball episode/inning.