Top 100 prospects

[kbwsb]

Another thing: if 2 players are considered equal with the bat, and one is an OK-fielding 3rd baseman, and the other is a good-fielding <i>catcher</i>...
like I said, the right pick was obvious <b>at the time</b>.
And considering that Weiters got almost twice the bonus as Vitters, you'd have to say it was obvious to most baseball guys too.
I think sometimes that Wilken tries to overthink it. The Colvin pick sounds like somebody trying to hit a 500ft homer, when a nice, safe bunt single woulda won the game.
And instead, we got a strike-out.

[kbwsb]

BTW, BT's list of failed prospects is an impressive argument, I admit. Like I said earlier, like with Soto and CPatt, you never know with prospects.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=20252:date=Feb 25 2009, 02:41 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 25 2009, 02:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Another thing: if 2 players are considered equal with the bat, and one is an OK-fielding 3rd baseman, and the other is a good-fielding <i>catcher</i>...
like I said, the right pick was obvious <b>at the time</b>.
And considering that Weiters got almost twice the bonus as Vitters, you'd have to say it was obvious to most baseball guys too.
I think sometimes that Wilken tries to overthink it. The Colvin pick sounds like somebody trying to hit a 500ft homer, when a nice, safe bunt single woulda won the game.
And instead, we got a strike-out.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=20234:date=Feb 25 2009, 03:04 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 03:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20229:date=Feb 25 2009, 02:56 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 25 2009, 02:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20225:date=Feb 25 2009, 02:52 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 02:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20223:date=Feb 25 2009, 02:49 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 25 2009, 02:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->My memory of the time of the actual draft is a bit foggy, but I don't remember anyone having Vitters ranked ahead of Wieters leading up to draft day.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I reacll it basically being a toss up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If it's a toss-up and one player is coming out of college and the other is coming out of high school, then it's a no brainer.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If I'm drafting, I'm taking little to no high school position players in general and I'm not selecting a single high school pitcher.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

So no Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriquez, or Kerry Wood? In 2002 you guys pass on Kazmir, Hamels and Cain? 2003 you pass on Danks and Billingsly? 2004 you pass on Phil Hughes? Meanwhile, in those 3 years, the best college pitcher I could find in the early first round was Joe Blanton (although I will freely admit I took about 30 seconds to do this, so I could have missed someone).

You can't simply punt on High School players. Or, more precisely, you CAN, but you will miss out on a lot of talent.

And as far as I can tell, every source I found had Vitters and Weiters ranked 3 and 4, usually in that order. The 2 mock draft I found had the Cubs taking Vitters as well. Weiters over Vitters may have been obvious to you guys, but not to most of the experts I've seen (and I assume they are taking the college vs high school into account when they do their rankings).

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=20265:date=Feb 25 2009, 03:59 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 03:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20234:date=Feb 25 2009, 03:04 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 03:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20229:date=Feb 25 2009, 02:56 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 25 2009, 02:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20225:date=Feb 25 2009, 02:52 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 02:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20223:date=Feb 25 2009, 02:49 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Feb 25 2009, 02:49 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->My memory of the time of the actual draft is a bit foggy, but I don't remember anyone having Vitters ranked ahead of Wieters leading up to draft day.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I reacll it basically being a toss up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If it's a toss-up and one player is coming out of college and the other is coming out of high school, then it's a no brainer.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If I'm drafting, I'm taking little to no high school position players in general and I'm not selecting a single high school pitcher.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

So no Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones, Alex Rodriquez, or Kerry Wood? In 2002 you guys pass on Kazmir, Hamels and Cain? 2003 you pass on Danks and Billingsly? 2004 you pass on Phil Hughes? Meanwhile, in those 3 years, the best college pitcher I could find in the early first round was Joe Blanton (although I will freely admit I took about 30 seconds to do this, so I could have missed someone).

You can't simply punt on High School players. Or, more precisely, you CAN, but you will miss out on a lot of talent.

And as far as I can tell, every source I found had Vitters and Weiters ranked 3 and 4, usually in that order. The 2 mock draft I found had the Cubs taking Vitters as well. Weiters over Vitters may have been obvious to you guys, but not to most of the experts I've seen (and I assume they are taking the college vs high school into account when they do their rankings).
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As a general rule, I wouldn't take very many high schoolers especially pitchers, that was my only point.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=20252:date=Feb 25 2009, 03:41 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Feb 25 2009, 03:41 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Another thing: if 2 players are considered equal with the bat, and one is an OK-fielding 3rd baseman, and the other is a good-fielding <i>catcher</i>...
like I said, the right pick was obvious <b>at the time</b>.
And considering that Weiters got almost twice the bonus as Vitters, you'd have to say it was obvious to most baseball guys too.
I think sometimes that Wilken tries to overthink it. The Colvin pick sounds like somebody trying to hit a 500ft homer, when a nice, safe bunt single woulda won the game.
And instead, we got a strike-out.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I've got to go home, but one last post.

-See my previous post as to how "obvious" it was at the time.
-I don't think Wieters is consided a good fielding catcher, but I could be wrong
-The bonus demands were in part because of his agent.
-Wilken wanted Lincecum, but he went 2 picks before Colvin
-The book on Colvin is not finished.

[chitownwinninitall]

I'll ask the question because I don't have the patience to try and figure out the answer. Is there any data on the percentage of high school and college picks that where either all stars or at least mlb regulars? Looking up no data I would think more college draft picks end up being mlb regulars but have no idea which group would produce the most all stars.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=20317:date=Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM:name=chitownwinninitall)-->QUOTE (chitownwinninitall @ Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I'll ask the question because I don't have the patience to try and figure out the answer. Is there any data on the percentage of high school and college picks that where either all stars or at least mlb regulars? Looking up no data I would think more college draft picks end up being mlb regulars but have no idea which group would produce the most all stars.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Baseball Prospectus goes over a lot of that here:

high school vs college

Mixed results.

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=20335:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:16 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 08:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20317:date=Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM:name=chitownwinninitall)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (chitownwinninitall @ Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I'll ask the question because I don't have the patience to try and figure out the answer. Is there any data on the percentage of high school and college picks that where either all stars or at least mlb regulars? Looking up no data I would think more college draft picks end up being mlb regulars but have no idea which group would produce the most all stars.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Baseball Prospectus goes over a lot of that here:

high school vs college

Mixed results.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->College players taken in the first three rounds are about 50% more likely to reach the majors than high school players;

College players, on average, yield about 55% more value than high school players drafted with the same pick.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That tells me just about all I need to know

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=20343:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:25 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 08:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20335:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:16 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 08:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20317:date=Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM:name=chitownwinninitall)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (chitownwinninitall @ Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I'll ask the question because I don't have the patience to try and figure out the answer. Is there any data on the percentage of high school and college picks that where either all stars or at least mlb regulars? Looking up no data I would think more college draft picks end up being mlb regulars but have no idea which group would produce the most all stars.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Baseball Prospectus goes over a lot of that here:

high school vs college

Mixed results.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->College players taken in the first three rounds are about 50% more likely to reach the majors than high school players;

College players, on average, yield about 55% more value than high school players drafted with the same pick.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That tells me just about all I need to know
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Read the whole thing. You are missing half of their conclusions. Actually you are missing the entire point of the article.


<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Actually, it's even smaller than that. As you can see from the numbers, while high-school players lag their collegiate counterparts in the first six years after the draft, the lines cross at Y7 (when collegiate players are about 28, and high schoolers are only 25), and then high-school players have more value from Y8 through Y10, when our study runs out of numbers to crunch. It stands to reason that with the benefit of more years of data, the gap between high school and college players would narrow further.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=20363:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:52 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 08:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20343:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:25 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 08:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20335:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:16 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 08:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20317:date=Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM:name=chitownwinninitall)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (chitownwinninitall @ Feb 25 2009, 06:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I'll ask the question because I don't have the patience to try and figure out the answer. Is there any data on the percentage of high school and college picks that where either all stars or at least mlb regulars? Looking up no data I would think more college draft picks end up being mlb regulars but have no idea which group would produce the most all stars.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Baseball Prospectus goes over a lot of that here:

high school vs college

Mixed results.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->College players taken in the first three rounds are about 50% more likely to reach the majors than high school players;

College players, on average, yield about 55% more value than high school players drafted with the same pick.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That tells me just about all I need to know
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Read the whole thing. You are missing half of their conclusions. Actually you are missing the entire point of the article.


<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Actually, it's even smaller than that. As you can see from the numbers, while high-school players lag their collegiate counterparts in the first six years after the draft, the lines cross at Y7 (when collegiate players are about 28, and high schoolers are only 25), and then high-school players have more value from Y8 through Y10, when our study runs out of numbers to crunch. It stands to reason that with the benefit of more years of data, the gap between high school and college players would narrow further.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The conclusion you list doesn't negate the first 2 points though.

[BT]

Fine. How about these conclusions.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Draft Rule #6: Draft Rule #5 appears to be obsolete when looking at data from after 1991. The advantage enjoyed by college players over high-school players has dropped to 8%, a margin of dubious statistical significance.

Draft Rule #7: The value of high-school players relative to their college counterparts has shot up, even though teams were more likely to use top draft picks on high-school players in the 1990s than in the 1980s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=20366:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:56 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 08:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Fine. How about these conclusions.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Draft Rule #6: Draft Rule #5 appears to be obsolete when looking at data from after 1991. The advantage enjoyed by college players over high-school players has dropped to 8%, a margin of dubious statistical significance.

Draft Rule #7: The value of high-school players relative to their college counterparts has shot up, even though teams were more likely to use top draft picks on high-school players in the 1990s than in the 1980s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I can't read the whole thing, but that would be totally mixed results.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=20375:date=Feb 25 2009, 09:15 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Feb 25 2009, 09:15 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=20366:date=Feb 25 2009, 08:56 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Feb 25 2009, 08:56 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Fine. How about these conclusions.

<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Draft Rule #6: Draft Rule #5 appears to be obsolete when looking at data from after 1991. The advantage enjoyed by college players over high-school players has dropped to 8%, a margin of dubious statistical significance.

Draft Rule #7: The value of high-school players relative to their college counterparts has shot up, even though teams were more likely to use top draft picks on high-school players in the 1990s than in the 1980s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I can't read the whole thing, but that would be totally mixed results.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

that's pretty much what he says. He presented the initial stats you quoted, so he could show how they went out the window on closer examination.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->In my 10 years of writing for Baseball Prospectus, this is the most surprising conclusion I have ever reached in an analytical study. I suspected that the advantage enjoyed by collegiate players had diminished, but I didn't anticipate the degree to which it has. And I certainly did not suspect that high-school players would jump in value relative to college picks even as teams were drafting more high school players, not less.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[kbwsb]

Yeah, but how many prospects are still with their original team by Year 10?
I'm not campaigning against HS picks, per se. But it seems that if you're going to use a Top 5 overall pick on a HS kid, he better look like A-Rod.