Keith Law chat highlights

[leonardsipes]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Keith Law: There are no productive outs. Just discard the term. Unless a run scores directly on the play, an out nearly always puts a major dent in your run expectation for the inning. So GMs who take "productive outs" into account are ... bad GMs.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

It is like a high school principal that says "we don't believe in sex before wedlock, so we don't talk about condoms."

Outs happen 65% of the time. Why would you want a GM that only thinks about 35% of the game? When you add up all the stats, with all the big innings where a lot of people get on base and a lot of them score, productive out are not a big factor. When you watch the game, most of the time you are watching people get out. Outs are not just the absence of getting on base, they are 65% of what we know and love as baseball.


Watching baseball, includes seeing all the things that happen to get a base runner home. Running, base stealing, pick off throws, productive outs etc. It does not seem like you could be watching the games and say there are no productive outs.

[Fella]

I think his point is that statistically your chance of scoring a run is always lower after an out then before it unless a run directly scores, which is very true. Sure some outs are better than others and you have to value guys who make contact because thats almost always better than a strikeout,. He kinda put it poorly but the idea is that the old baseball traditions of sac bunting runners to 2nd or purposely trying to ground out to 2nd to get a guy to 3rd really aren't productive. Unless you're the pitcher you should always try to get a hit rather than giving yourself up as a "productive out"

[Clapp]

Whenever you're up in a situation with a runner on 2nd and no out, your mentality should always be to hit the ball to the right side, but nobody goes up there "trying to ground out". You're trying to get a hit, but at worst you move the runner over to third base, which is a big deal. I don't want to depend on us getting 2 hits in an inning in the playoffs to score a run. If there's a runner on 2nd with no outs, at least get that guy to 3rd and then you can score on the next at bat by a flyball, groundball, error, balk, wild pitch, etc., rather than waiting for somebody else to get a hit.

[Fella]

<!--quoteo(post=17968:date=Feb 14 2009, 02:03 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 14 2009, 02:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Whenever you're up in a situation with a runner on 2nd and no out, your mentality should always be to hit the ball to the right side, but nobody goes up there "trying to ground out". You're trying to get a hit, but at worst you move the runner over to third base, which is a big deal. I don't want to depend on us getting 2 hits in an inning in the playoffs to score a run. If there's a runner on 2nd with no outs, at least get that guy to 3rd and then you can score on the next at bat by a flyball, groundball, error, balk, wild pitch, etc., rather than waiting for somebody else to get a hit.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Well its a different game in the playoffs, i don't think thats what he was talking about. You face better starting pitchers, only the best bullpen guys pitch and runs can be very precious. When a lights out pitcher is on the mound that holds hitters to a sub .200 batting average and you know the next guy in is gonna be a lights out closer, then you do what you can. Its also a big change from a 162 game marathon to a short win or go home series. I still hate sac bunts to 2nd by anyone other than the pitcher or shitty hitter no matter when it is, but that's just my preference.

Also I wasn't saying its not better to move a guy to third than not, I just hate giving yourself up to move a runner over. Guys may not be officially "trying to ground out" but a lot of times they are purposely trying to put it on the ground to the right side which is gonna be an out a very high percentage of the time. Statistically you have a better chance of scoring more runs with a guy on 2nd and no outs than with a guy on 3rd and one out. I think that's what Law meant.

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=17974:date=Feb 14 2009, 02:35 PM:name=Fella)-->QUOTE (Fella @ Feb 14 2009, 02:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=17968:date=Feb 14 2009, 02:03 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Feb 14 2009, 02:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Whenever you're up in a situation with a runner on 2nd and no out, your mentality should always be to hit the ball to the right side, but nobody goes up there "trying to ground out". You're trying to get a hit, but at worst you move the runner over to third base, which is a big deal. I don't want to depend on us getting 2 hits in an inning in the playoffs to score a run. If there's a runner on 2nd with no outs, at least get that guy to 3rd and then you can score on the next at bat by a flyball, groundball, error, balk, wild pitch, etc., rather than waiting for somebody else to get a hit.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Well its a different game in the playoffs, i don't think thats what he was talking about. You face better starting pitchers, only the best bullpen guys pitch and runs can be very precious. When a lights out pitcher is on the mound that holds hitters to a sub .200 batting average and you know the next guy in is gonna be a lights out closer, then you do what you can. Its also a big change from a 162 game marathon to a short win or go home series. I still hate sac bunts to 2nd by anyone other than the pitcher or shitty hitter no matter when it is, but that's just my preference.

Also I wasn't saying its not better to move a guy to third than not, I just hate giving yourself up to move a runner over. Guys may not be officially "trying to ground out" but a lot of times they are purposely trying to put it on the ground to the right side which is gonna be an out a very high percentage of the time. Statistically you have a better chance of scoring more runs with a guy on 2nd and no outs than with a guy on 3rd and one out. I think that's what Law meant.
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Right, and I know what you're saying, I wasn't really speaking to you but his thinking. I'm only looking at these things for how it matters to us in the playoffs, until we win a game. My bitching will be constant all season long.