Hey Butch

[Clapp]

<!--quoteo(post=28079:date=Apr 7 2009, 01:40 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 7 2009, 01:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->i liked derosa as much as the next guy, but i'm past this. the loss of derosa will have no bearing on the outcome of this season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Amen.

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=28079:date=Apr 7 2009, 02:40 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 7 2009, 02:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->you know whats funny? before the derosa rumors started, half the site was expected a big dropoff for derosa. a lot of people here thought there was no way derosa was gonna put up the same numbers (ironically i wasn't one of them) and now that he's gone, it's like we lost rogers hornsby or frank frisch.

i liked derosa as much as the next guy, but i'm past this. the loss of derosa will have no bearing on the outcome of this season.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Tom, even though we fundamentally disagree with the deRo debacle, I agree with both of your points.
Maybe Hendry was Lou-proofing the squad. Second base should be a strict platoon, but that would mean that Fontenot would get 75% of the AB's, because right-handed pitchers make up about 75% of all MLB pitchers. And Lou might've started DeRosa in spite of the platoon thing, which is dumb.

Do I really think Jim did it for that reason? No, but I'm desperately trying to dream up some logical scenario in which the DeRo trade makes a whit of sense.

Oh, and BTW, my good friend Clappie: DeRosa > Miles/Fuk.
(or, more accurately: DeRosa >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Miles/Fuk.)

[ColoradoCub]

<!--quoteo(post=28070:date=Apr 7 2009, 01:36 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 7 2009, 01:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=28065:date=Apr 7 2009, 02:33 PM:name=ColoradoCub)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Apr 7 2009, 02:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Fuck, it's like Butch is PMS'ing today. Can't you at least wrest a little enjoyment out of yesterday's game Butchie before going back to the doom and gloom routine?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
When a "Hey Butch" thread is started, am I just supposed to ignore it? [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif[/img]
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Fair enough

[kbwsb]

The Astros are starting a lefty tonight.
Does that mean we'll get to see the debut of the new DeRosa, Miles?

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=28176:date=Apr 7 2009, 05:08 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 7 2009, 05:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The Astros are starting a lefty tonight.
Does that mean we'll get to see the debut of the new DeRosa, Miles?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Probably. I'm guessing we'll see Reed, too.

[Clapp]

You know things are good when people complain about us having a .300 hitter in the lineup.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=28178:date=Apr 7 2009, 05:09 PM:name=Clapp)-->QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 7 2009, 05:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You know things are good when people complain about us having a .300 hitter in the lineup.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
His career would suggest he's more of a .289/.329/.364 (or a sexy 77 OPS+) hitter.

Hopefully 2008 wasn't a fluke.

[cigar]

I will be honest. I have not even thought about DeRosa since about halfway through ST.

[Ace]

I am famous and awesome.


(and fwiw, my enhanced box score is an exaggeration of how I actually feel. I think we'll be fine without DeRosa, but of course I'd rather have him than Miles as a bench guy - who wouldn't? but that's not really what the options were...)

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=28179:date=Apr 7 2009, 05:12 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 7 2009, 05:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=28178:date=Apr 7 2009, 05:09 PM:name=Clapp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Clapp @ Apr 7 2009, 05:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->You know things are good when people complain about us having a .300 hitter in the lineup.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
His career would suggest he's more of a .289/.329/.364 (or a sexy 77 OPS+) hitter.
Hopefully 2008 wasn't a fluke.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Dude, Cedeno had about a 77 OPS+ last year. How can you imply that it's not sexy?
Sure he's younger, a better runner, and a better fielder than Miles, but c'mon.

(Just kidding, Clappie.)
I wish the best for Miles. (obviously...he's a freaking <i>Cub</i> now)

[Quinn]

Ah, I didn't think of this when it came to payroll increasing:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->The Cubs made headlines by increasing their Opening Day payroll more than any other team, by $16.5MM. This was a necessity due to the team's backloaded contracts, though - incumbents Kosuke Fukudome, Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Aramis Ramirez combined for a $17.9MM salary increase.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/04/offs...icago-cubs.html

[kbwsb]

Excellent article on "value" of contracts (ie, even though Pujols makes a ton, he's actually worth a lot more; even though A-Rod plays great, he's worth about half of what he's paid.)

Oh, and that sparkling LAST paragraph: only <!--coloro:#FF0000--><!--/coloro-->Butch<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc--> is allowed to read it.

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Bargains and boondoggles
<b>Which players are the most over- and underpaid?</b>

By Christina Kahrl
Baseball Prospectus
In fantasy leagues, everyone loves to talk about bargains and boondoggles, the guys you overbid for, and the guys who give you quality production for a song. With real-world baseball right around the corner, it's also time to take stock of those players in the 2009 season who are giving their teams full bang for their buck and then some, as opposed to those players who are delivering a lot less than you expect for what it took to bring them in.

One of the most important considerations for generating these kinds of categories is that we need to recognize that not all contracts are created equally. A young player who signs a multiyear extension that takes him through his arbitration years and perhaps also the first year or two of his eligibility for free agency is almost automatically going to be a bargain to the team that leverages their control over his immediate future to offer him some security and lock him up.

As a matter of grinding, actuarial fact, outside of the rare early arrival like Alex Rodriguez, these contracts almost always cover most or all of the peak seasons of a young player's career, between the ages of 25 and 29 (or what we statheads like to simplify as the "age-27" phenomenon). Since they're generated without any open bidding on the market, it's easy for teams to make a relative score here, as the Rays did last spring by getting Evan Longoria to agree to a six-year, $17.5 million deal that gets sweeter still when you consider that it gives the club options on him for 2014 at $7.5 million, and for 2015 and 2016 for $11 million apiece. Whether they pick up the options or not, if Longoria lives up to his projected value over a replacement-level third baseman -- a mere $59 million from 2009 to 2013 -- he represents a massive bargain for his employer. Add in his projected 2009 value as set by PECOTA at $10.675 million in a year where he's getting paid $550,000, and we have an easy choice for the biggest bargain at third base.

Men of MORP: The Good
The top 10 players in the major leagues based on Marginal Value Above Replacement Player (MORP) is a roster of All-Stars. All dollar figures in millions.

Player MORP Salary
Albert Pujols $36.475 $16.0
Hanley Ramirez $34.225 $5.5
Jose Reyes $25.825 $5.75
Matt Wieters $24.5 $0.4
David Wright $24.125 $7.5
Carlos Beltran $21.35 $18.5
Chase Utley $21.0 $11.0
Chipper Jones $20.2 $11.0
Grady Sizemore $19.85 $4.6
CC Sabathia $18.1 $14.0
It's because of that kind of consideration that, when you look at the 10 players whose value figures to be greatest in 2009, you end up with a few obvious names, but there are different factors involved when it comes to service time and contract status:

Obviously, some of these things are not like the others. Sabathia and Beltran aren't bargains, although in each case, you can say that Brian Cashman and Omar Minaya did their work well, since in each instance we're talking about free agents getting top dollar on the open market -- and still being more than worth it. (Their likely value at the back end of their long-term contracts is another matter, but we'll get to the boondoggles and pick that point back up again in a bit.) Here we also find several unsurprising examples of young players locked into multiyear extensions not unlike Longoria's: Wright, Utley and Sizemore, for example. Chipper Jones might be the equivalent of a lottery ticket -- when healthy, he's a bargain because he figures to rank among the best players in the league.

The guys who really stand out as bargains, however, are Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Matt Wieters. It's important to recognize that none of these players were ever free agents on the open market. Pujols signed his seven-year, $100 million extension in 2004 to dodge arbitration, a deal that looks like a relative bargain now. Similarly, Minaya didn't kvetch over his lot, he did the entirely sane thing with Reyes (as with Wright), and got him locked up early. Hanley Ramirez inked his six-year, $70 million extension last May, making it clear that while the Marlins might be cheap with their more mediocre talents once they achieve arbitration eligibility, they had the good sense -- financial as well as player evaluation -- to get HanRam hammered into place as the centerpiece of the franchise.

In the same way that our aggressive projections for Wieters' performance as a rookie upsets a few mental apple carts now that he has just one year of pro experience split between High-A and Double-A, that projection plays its part in our valuation modeling. If he lives up to our projections, being worth that kind of money might seem insane for a rookie, but catchers are rare and catchers with Wieters' kind of talent as a hitter represent a player-development grail of sorts.

Men of MORP: The Bad
The bottom 10 players in the major leagues based on Marginal Value Above Replacement Player (MORP) shows the danger of big-ticket deals for veterans.

Player MORP Salary
J.D. Drew $3.55 $14.0
Hideki Matsui $2.575 $13.0
Alex Rodriguez $15.275 $32.0
Todd Helton $2.50 $16.6
Jeff Suppan $1.70 $12.5
Barry Zito $3.325 $18.0
Michael Young $5.975 $16.0
Jose Guillen $1.425 $12.0
Magglio Ordonez $4.675 $18.0
Gary Sheffield $1.90 $14.0
Since we're talking about sources of unhappiness, let's move to the less-happy category of boondoggles, where it might please fans tired of the Red Sox/Yankees tango in the Hot Stove League that both teams deserve special mention here. That's because both clubs have far too many instances of big-ticket free agents who will fall far short of their contractual value, but in looking at some of the contracts where teams are out almost eight large or more relative to what they're getting for their money, you find some interesting names:

Generally speaking, these are all free-agency-driven, big-ticket salaries, although Helton's presence reflects the downside of signing one of those franchise deals with a player under team control. I've deliberately set aside pitchers who are injured or out for a significant portion of the year -- while the long-term contracts given to Jason Schmidt looked bad at the time and turned out that way, as with Tim Hudson or Billy Wagner (for example), there were reasons to offer those deals. Instead, I'm focusing on who's actually going to be playing -- just not very well, relative to their paychecks. Not all of this might seem fair -- Michael Young and Magglio Ordonez and A-Rod all have considerable value, after all, but what their teams had to pay for their services is a lot more. The free agency disasterpiece of Zito's deal is a well-worn trope of the market at its most irrational, but Jeff Suppan deserves honorable mention among those healthy hurlers their employers regret bringing aboard.

Set aside in sort of a special category all his own is the Captain -- Derek Jeter is being paid $20 million in 2009 because of who he was when he signed his 10-year, $189 million deal in 2001. Now that we're in the back end of his deal and projecting his 2009 performance to be worth just $5.55 million. It takes an awful lot of faith in what he's worth in terms of advertising and pinstriped brand management to say he's really worth the extra $14 million or so, but that isn't really fair to Cashman or the Yankees -- they got great value from Jeter at the front end of the deal, and they accepted the risk here at the back end and it isn't like the money spent kept them from spending big this past winter.

<b>Special overpriced scrub award: Because you can make mistakes on the bottom of the roster as easily as you can on the top, let's bring up <!--coloro:#FF0000--><!--/coloro-->Aaron Miles<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc--> of the Cubs, or perhaps more properly GM Jim Hendry for giving Miles a two-year, $4.9 million contract. His projected value of his production in 2009 is $550,000, barely above league-minimum, and is projected to drop to $425,000 in 2010. Flushing $4 million over two years may seem like small potatoes, but one of the things we expected in terms of changing free market behavior is that we anticipated that mediocre players would have a hard time while teams (wisely) pay a premium to top-end talent. That's still generally true, but every once in a while you still see bad deals like this. The Cubs decided they had a specific need, felt they had to fill it from among the limited supply of free-agent middle infielders and paid a premium for replacement-caliber talent. More power to Miles for getting the benjamins, though.</b><!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[Ace]

Well, to be fair, Miles was signed very early in the offseason, at least compared to the other mediocre role player types. That market hadn't quite had the bottom fall out of it yet. Still, he looks hilariously overpaid now.