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<b>2010</b>
Soriano -- $19 M
Zambrano -- $18.88 M
Aramis -- $16.75 M
Lee -- $13 M
Fukudome -- $14 M
Dempster -- $13.5 M
Lilly -- $13 M
Bradley -- $10.33 M
Miles -- $2.7 M
Samardzija -- $1 M
Vizcaino -- $0.5 M
<b>Total -- $122,600,000</b> committed to these 10 players
The rest are at minimum or are arb eligible. If you conservatively assume an average of $750 K for the remaining 15 players on the 25 man roster, our payroll would be $133,850,000. That leaves us little room for improvement unless we improve from within or our payroll jumps considerably
There really isn't much money to make any big acquisitions in the off season.
Players we will need to resign or replace include:
Harden
Johnson
Heilman
Gregg
Grabow
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<b>2011 </b>
Soriano -- $19 M
Zambrano -- $18.88 M
Aramis -- $14.60 M
Dempster -- $14.5 M
Fukudome -- $14.5 M
Bradley -- $13.33 M
Samardzija -- $1.5 M
<b>Total -- $96,310,00</b>
Over $95 Million committed to just 7 players. All, with the possible exception of Aramis, are vastly overpaid and underperforming. Some major creativity and development from within will be necessary to compete. We will also see increased arbitration values from Soto, Theriot and possibly Fontenot if he is still in the league.
Areas of need include:
Starting pitching
First base
Second base
Bullpen/Closer
Our outfield will be old and slow with Soriano (age 35), Bradley (33), and Fukudome (34) all two years older. It is inevitable that the OFs offense will also decline as age 32/33 is typically when a baseball player's statistical decline begins. Soriano is already declining and Bradley may be as well. It's possible that both will bounce back, but I wouldn't count on it.
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<b>2012</b>
Zambrano -- $19 M
Soriano -- $19 M (through 2014)
Aramis -- $16 M (club option w/ $2M buyout)
Dempster -- $14 M (player option)
Our committments come to $54 Million ($66 M if Aramis' option is exercized).
In conclusion, I feel like Hendry has totally mismanaged future payroll flexibility to win now. I can understand why Hendry set up the payroll like this since the team has been for sale and he has no guarantess of his future. However, I don't feel an Organization should be run in this manner if you want to stay competitive on a consistent basis. I feel like it will be several years after this season until we will compete again and this is Hendry's fault. I was once a Hendry supporter but at this point I will be disappointed if he is retained by the Ricketts.
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Scarey, why did you delete your response. I totally agreed with it.
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<!--quoteo(post=56966:date=Aug 11 2009, 08:33 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 11 2009, 08:33 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Scarey, why did you delete your response. I totally agreed with it.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's numbers like these that make me glad the Cubs didn't try to make a big splash in a trade this year. They really need to hold onto as much minor league talent as they can and hope it develops. Too much money tied up to hope we can bring in big time free agents for the next few years.
And I deleted my post because I wanted all of your information you were compiling together and neat. I assumed when I first posted that you were only posting next year's numbers and when I saw the 2011 one I figured I would delete and put it after you got done.
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I hope the Rickett's approach to baseball is vastly different that the current Cubs brass.
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And in defense of Hendry, I think he threw the future out the window for a good opportunity in the now. While I agree, it's not a great way of running a team, if he would have won it all one of the last three years none of us would care. He went for the big gamble and it's looking like he may be coming up snake eyes. I was pretty much 100% agreeable with Hendry's moves though, so I can't personally cast stones in retrospect.
I knew when he was signing some of these contracts that we would be tied down to some huge contracts, but I wanted him to do what he needed to do to get a very good opportunity to win. I think there's no doubt he was successful last year, but the players fucked up in the playoffs. I would say he was successful again this year, but it's been an odd season. Players have underperformed big time, injuries are popping up all over the place, and certain shit-on-paper hill billy ball clubs have taken advantage. But that's baseball for you and it's really only an argument for you in the fact that Hendry shouldn't have put all his eggs in one basket for such a strange sport with so many variables.
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<!--quoteo(post=56970:date=Aug 11 2009, 09:47 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Aug 11 2009, 09:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->And in defense of Hendry, I think he threw the future out the window for a good opportunity in the now. While I agree, it's not a great way of running a team, if he would have won it all one of the last three years none of us would care. He went for the big gamble and it's looking like he may be coming up snake eyes. I was pretty much 100% agreeable with Hendry's moves though, so I can't personally cast stones in retrospect.
I knew when he was signing some of these contracts that we would be tied down to some huge contracts, but I wanted him to do what he needed to do to get a very good opportunity to win. I think there's no doubt he was successful last year, but the players fucked up in the playoffs. I would say he was successful again this year, but it's been an odd season. Players have underperformed big time, injuries are popping up all over the place, and certain shit-on-paper hill billy ball clubs have taken advantage. But that's baseball for you and it's really only an argument for you in the fact that Hendry shouldn't have put all his eggs in one basket for such a strange sport with so many variables.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't think it is ever right to throw the future out the window to the extent that Hendry did. He basically said I probably won't be around in 2010 - 2012, may as well go out with a bang. While I can understand his motivation, it just shows how poor this club is managed. Somehow the Marlins are always competitive with a payroll 25 % the size of ours. Similar things can be said about the Rays, Twins, DBacks (this year excepted) and Rockies (2 of last 3 years). The common theme with these teams is that they are built from within. Our farm system is consistently ranked in the bottom third of baseball. We spend fortunes on players that don't pan out (Samardzija) and take senseless gambles on others (Colvin). We have some decent role players that came from the farm, but outside of Zambrano (who's making $$$) we have no top line players making huge contributions that came from within. Hopefully Wells can be the first in a long time to fit that description.
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<!--quoteo(post=56973:date=Aug 11 2009, 09:08 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 11 2009, 09:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56970:date=Aug 11 2009, 09:47 AM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Aug 11 2009, 09:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->And in defense of Hendry, I think he threw the future out the window for a good opportunity in the now. While I agree, it's not a great way of running a team, if he would have won it all one of the last three years none of us would care. He went for the big gamble and it's looking like he may be coming up snake eyes. I was pretty much 100% agreeable with Hendry's moves though, so I can't personally cast stones in retrospect.
I knew when he was signing some of these contracts that we would be tied down to some huge contracts, but I wanted him to do what he needed to do to get a very good opportunity to win. I think there's no doubt he was successful last year, but the players fucked up in the playoffs. I would say he was successful again this year, but it's been an odd season. Players have underperformed big time, injuries are popping up all over the place, and certain shit-on-paper hill billy ball clubs have taken advantage. But that's baseball for you and it's really only an argument for you in the fact that Hendry shouldn't have put all his eggs in one basket for such a strange sport with so many variables.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't think it is ever right to throw the future out the window to the extent that Hendry did. He basically said I probably won't be around in 2010 - 2012, may as well go out with a bang. While I can understand his motivation, it just shows how poor this club is managed. Somehow the Marlins are always competitive with a payroll 25 % the size of ours. Similar things can be said about the Rays, Twins, DBacks (this year excepted) and Rockies (2 of last 3 years). The common theme with these teams is that they are built from within. Our farm system is consistently ranked in the bottom third of baseball. We spend fortunes on players that don't pan out (Samardzija) and take senseless gambles on others (Colvin). We have some decent role players that came from the farm, but outside of Zambrano (who's making $$$) we have no top line players making huge contributions that came from within. Hopefully Wells can be the first in a long time to fit that description.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If the Cubs won the World Series with a payroll of $350 MM would it mean anything less than if the Cubs won the World Series with a payroll of $65 MM?
The Cubs have one of the highest revenue bases in the MLB and should have one of the highest payrolls.
I don't give a rat's ass what the Cubs payroll is as long as the team on the field wins.
I don't agree with the "Hendry has thrown the future out the window" comment. He hasn't traded away prospects and assuming that baseball revenues return to growing at historic rates, the Cubs should be able to cover their existing payroll commitments and add to them.
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Aside from Z, Ramirez and Soto, I'd like to see this team go through some major changes in the next 2-3 years. Won't happen, but I think it needs to happen. We just aren't going to win a championship with a team full of low baseball IQ players, and fragile underachievers.
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<!--quoteo(post=56973:date=Aug 11 2009, 09:08 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 11 2009, 09:08 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56970:date=Aug 11 2009, 09:47 AM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Aug 11 2009, 09:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->And in defense of Hendry, I think he threw the future out the window for a good opportunity in the now. While I agree, it's not a great way of running a team, if he would have won it all one of the last three years none of us would care. He went for the big gamble and it's looking like he may be coming up snake eyes. I was pretty much 100% agreeable with Hendry's moves though, so I can't personally cast stones in retrospect.
I knew when he was signing some of these contracts that we would be tied down to some huge contracts, but I wanted him to do what he needed to do to get a very good opportunity to win. I think there's no doubt he was successful last year, but the players fucked up in the playoffs. I would say he was successful again this year, but it's been an odd season. Players have underperformed big time, injuries are popping up all over the place, and certain shit-on-paper hill billy ball clubs have taken advantage. But that's baseball for you and it's really only an argument for you in the fact that Hendry shouldn't have put all his eggs in one basket for such a strange sport with so many variables.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't think it is ever right to throw the future out the window to the extent that Hendry did. He basically said I probably won't be around in 2010 - 2012, may as well go out with a bang. While I can understand his motivation, it just shows how poor this club is managed. Somehow the Marlins are always competitive with a payroll 25 % the size of ours. Similar things can be said about the Rays, Twins, DBacks (this year excepted) and Rockies (2 of last 3 years). The common theme with these teams is that they are built from within. Our farm system is consistently ranked in the bottom third of baseball. We spend fortunes on players that don't pan out (Samardzija) and take senseless gambles on others (Colvin). We have some decent role players that came from the farm, but outside of Zambrano (who's making $$$) we have no top line players making huge contributions that came from within. Hopefully Wells can be the first in a long time to fit that description.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The problem you're stating here is vastly different than what the thread was originally written about though. The Cubs didn't try to make their farm system crap, they just had the wrong personnel making the decisions. That's a problem they've already corrected by hiring in Tim Wilken. Yes, he got off to a bad start with the Colvin pick, but besides Colvin Wilken has missed on exactly one other 1st round pick in the last 19 years (assuming Colvin is already a miss, he has 13/19 make it to the majors, 2/19 misses, and 3/19 inconclusive). That is incredibly consistent relatively speaking. The inconclusives right now are Vitters, Cashner, and Jackson and all three look to be on the right track.
Besides that, the Cubs have made a commitment to scouting in the Pacific rim and that seems to have paid off with top prospects Dae-Eun Rhee and Hak-Ju Lee.
Overall, the Cubs minor league system has taken a huge step forward, and I think this was Hendry's plan really. I think he was trying to use the Red Sox model of buying up big time free agents while building a farm system to fill in holes. It hasn't exactly worked out the same with the Cubs because the free agents have fallen flat quickly. Again, I can't blame him because I agree with the way he did things, the results just suck.
And for the record, I disagree that Hendry was just spending all the club's money because he knew he wouldn't be around when the contracts started weighing the Cubs down. I think the biggest reason they Cubs started spending the last few years was to get quick results to increase the value of the team for the sale. So, they increased payroll which let Jim carry out his plan.
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<!--quoteo(post=56978:date=Aug 11 2009, 10:30 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Aug 11 2009, 10:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Aside from Z, Ramirez and Soto, I'd like to see this team go through some major changes in the next 2-3 years. Won't happen, but I think it needs to happen. We just aren't going to win a championship with a team full of low baseball IQ players, and fragile underachievers.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It will be tough to do.
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<!--quoteo(post=56968:date=Aug 11 2009, 08:39 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 11 2009, 08:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I hope the Rickett's approach to baseball is vastly different that the current Cubs brass.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So, just to be clear, fans bitched and moaned about the Trib being too cheap up until 2006 (despite much evidence to the contrary), and now we can't wait to get rid of them because they spend too much?
Talk about no win situations.
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
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<!--quoteo(post=56987:date=Aug 11 2009, 10:04 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Aug 11 2009, 10:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56968:date=Aug 11 2009, 08:39 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 11 2009, 08:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I hope the Rickett's approach to baseball is vastly different that the current Cubs brass.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So, just to be clear, fans bitched and moaned about the Trib being too cheap up until 2006 (despite much evidence to the contrary), and now we can't wait to get rid of them because they spend too much?
Talk about no win situations.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think he means that he hopes the new organization will be filled with more baseball people from top to bottom, and less accountants and marketing people running things from the top-down. The way the organization is being run right now, it is unsustainable for both long-term baseball success and to maintain financial sanity.
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<!--quoteo(post=56987:date=Aug 11 2009, 10:04 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Aug 11 2009, 10:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=56968:date=Aug 11 2009, 08:39 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 11 2009, 08:39 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I hope the Rickett's approach to baseball is vastly different that the current Cubs brass.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So, just to be clear, fans bitched and moaned about the Trib being too cheap up until 2006 (despite much evidence to the contrary), and now we can't wait to get rid of them because they spend too much?
Talk about no win situations.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't think he was complaining about spending lots of money. Spending a lot of money is great, if you're spending it wisely.
And for the record, I don't have a problem with Hendry backloading all of those contracts. He recognized that we had an opportunity to win with our core of talent -- an opportunity that wasn't going to last forever. By all accounts, last year should have been our year. We had the best record in the National League, we were getting great seasons from almost all of our players, and we had home field advantage through the NLCS. It wasn't Hendry's fault that we dropped a colossal shit in the bed during the playoffs.
Yeah, it's going to suck paying Soriano the GDP of Scandinavia for the next howevermanyyears, but Hendry felt he needed to add an impact bat in 2007 and Soriano was the second-best available (Carlos Lee was probably the better choice, but that's a different discussion). Hendry paid to "win now." That window is starting to close and we're going to suffer for a few years, but that's life I guess. I've been suffering with this team my whole life. Why should the next few years be any different?
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