Dempster

[Croz]

Dempster was great last year but god I hate watching him pitch this year. Why did we give him a huge contract??

Another Hendry fuckup!

[rok]

As much of an overpriced disappointment as he's been, he is the least of our worries.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=58727:date=Aug 18 2009, 10:39 PM:name=Croz)-->QUOTE (Croz @ Aug 18 2009, 10:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Dempster was great last year but god I hate watching him pitch this year. Why did we give him a huge contract??

Another Hendry fuckup!<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I don't know. Probably because he was really really good last year, was an All Star, and came in 6th in the Cy Young voting?

[Coldneck]

I think it's fair to say that he was signed for too much money and too long given the market. And I clearly remember me and others talking about his one huge year shouldn't earn him a ridiculous contract. But I also remember being quite happy when we resigned him because we needed the pitching and he is a stand up guy. I wish we signed him to a 3 yr / 30 M deal instead of the 4 yr / 52 M deal, but I can't say it was horrible signing.

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=58752:date=Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think it's fair to say that he was signed for too much money and too long given the market. And I clearly remember me and others talking about his one huge year shouldn't earn him a ridiculous contract. But I also remember being quite happy when we resigned him because we needed the pitching and he is a stand up guy. I wish we signed him to a 3 yr / 30 M deal instead of the 4 yr / 52 M deal, but I can't say it was horrible signing.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

The guy has been dealing with a lot. This contract may yet seem like a good deal.

[Giff]

He's pitched better than his numbers indicate. And he's got a terrible situation with his daughter. He's not an ace, but he's a good pitcher that can be a key part of a winning team. I'm glad he's a Cub.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=58752:date=Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think it's fair to say that he was signed for too much money and too long given the market. And I clearly remember me and others talking about his one huge year shouldn't earn him a ridiculous contract. But I also remember being quite happy when we resigned him because we needed the pitching and he is a stand up guy. I wish we signed him to a 3 yr / 30 M deal instead of the 4 yr / 52 M deal, but I can't say it was horrible signing.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


everyone tends to completely forget there were two distinctly different "markets" last year. Things went south very quickly. At the beginning of the FA signing period, Ibanez and Bradley were signing 3 year 30 milllion dollar contracts. By the end of the period, Abreu was signing a one year 5 million dollar deal. There is no way on Gods green earth we could have got him for 3/30, unless he foolishly waited too long to sign a deal.

To put it in perspective, Fangraphs is a website which relies heavily on stats. This is what they said when Dempster was signed. It also puts to bed the idea that we signed him expecting him to be a Cy Young pitcher the rest of his contract:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->But that’s the beauty of this deal for the Cubs – they’re not paying him like they expect him to repeat his 2008 season. At $14 million per season, they’ve essentially valued him as a +2.5 win pitcher, which would translate to a 4.25 FIP over 180 innings. In other words, they’ve built a regression of almost a full run per nine innings into Dempster’s expected performance, based on this contract.

If Dempster really did establish a new level of performance in ‘08, this is going to go down as a massive steal for the Cubs – they’d be getting an all-star pitcher for the same price that Carlos Silva got last winter. He can take a pretty sizable step back and this still would be a positive value contract. Essentially, for this to be a bad deal for the Cubs, Dempster’s going to have to get injured. If he stays healthy, this looks to be a big winner for the north side club.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

His contract looks bad now, but that is because the market tanked AFTER he signed his contract. I'd also argue that maybe the market isn't as bad as we think if Kenny Williams can bitch about attendance, then add 120 million to his payroll. This year, shitty pitchers might start getting 10 million a year again. Who knows.

[Coldneck]

<!--quoteo(post=58772:date=Aug 19 2009, 09:32 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Aug 19 2009, 09:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58752:date=Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think it's fair to say that he was signed for too much money and too long given the market. And I clearly remember me and others talking about his one huge year shouldn't earn him a ridiculous contract. But I also remember being quite happy when we resigned him because we needed the pitching and he is a stand up guy. I wish we signed him to a 3 yr / 30 M deal instead of the 4 yr / 52 M deal, but I can't say it was horrible signing.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


everyone tends to completely forget there were two distinctly different "markets" last year. Things went south very quickly. At the beginning of the FA signing period, Ibanez and Bradley were signing 3 year 30 milllion dollar contracts. By the end of the period, Abreu was signing a one year 5 million dollar deal. There is no way on Gods green earth we could have got him for 3/30, unless he foolishly waited too long to sign a deal.

To put it in perspective, Fangraphs is a website which relies heavily on stats. This is what they said when Dempster was signed. It also puts to bed the idea that we signed him expecting him to be a Cy Young pitcher the rest of his contract:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->But that’s the beauty of this deal for the Cubs – they’re not paying him like they expect him to repeat his 2008 season. At $14 million per season, they’ve essentially valued him as a +2.5 win pitcher, which would translate to a 4.25 FIP over 180 innings. In other words, they’ve built a regression of almost a full run per nine innings into Dempster’s expected performance, based on this contract.

If Dempster really did establish a new level of performance in ‘08, this is going to go down as a massive steal for the Cubs – they’d be getting an all-star pitcher for the same price that Carlos Silva got last winter. He can take a pretty sizable step back and this still would be a positive value contract. Essentially, for this to be a bad deal for the Cubs, Dempster’s going to have to get injured. If he stays healthy, this looks to be a big winner for the north side club.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

His contract looks bad now, but that is because the market tanked AFTER he signed his contract. I'd also argue that maybe the market isn't as bad as we think if Kenny Williams can bitch about attendance, then add 120 million to his payroll. This year, shitty pitchers might start getting 10 million a year again. Who knows.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I don't disagree with your premise, but I'd like to clarify something. Milton Bradley was signed on 1/6/09, which was after the market went south, not before.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=58777:date=Aug 19 2009, 08:47 AM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 19 2009, 08:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58772:date=Aug 19 2009, 09:32 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Aug 19 2009, 09:32 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=58752:date=Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM:name=Coldneck)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coldneck @ Aug 19 2009, 07:04 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think it's fair to say that he was signed for too much money and too long given the market. And I clearly remember me and others talking about his one huge year shouldn't earn him a ridiculous contract. But I also remember being quite happy when we resigned him because we needed the pitching and he is a stand up guy. I wish we signed him to a 3 yr / 30 M deal instead of the 4 yr / 52 M deal, but I can't say it was horrible signing.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


everyone tends to completely forget there were two distinctly different "markets" last year. Things went south very quickly. At the beginning of the FA signing period, Ibanez and Bradley were signing 3 year 30 milllion dollar contracts. By the end of the period, Abreu was signing a one year 5 million dollar deal. There is no way on Gods green earth we could have got him for 3/30, unless he foolishly waited too long to sign a deal.

To put it in perspective, Fangraphs is a website which relies heavily on stats. This is what they said when Dempster was signed. It also puts to bed the idea that we signed him expecting him to be a Cy Young pitcher the rest of his contract:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->But that’s the beauty of this deal for the Cubs – they’re not paying him like they expect him to repeat his 2008 season. At $14 million per season, they’ve essentially valued him as a +2.5 win pitcher, which would translate to a 4.25 FIP over 180 innings. In other words, they’ve built a regression of almost a full run per nine innings into Dempster’s expected performance, based on this contract.

If Dempster really did establish a new level of performance in ‘08, this is going to go down as a massive steal for the Cubs – they’d be getting an all-star pitcher for the same price that Carlos Silva got last winter. He can take a pretty sizable step back and this still would be a positive value contract. Essentially, for this to be a bad deal for the Cubs, Dempster’s going to have to get injured. If he stays healthy, this looks to be a big winner for the north side club.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

His contract looks bad now, but that is because the market tanked AFTER he signed his contract. I'd also argue that maybe the market isn't as bad as we think if Kenny Williams can bitch about attendance, then add 120 million to his payroll. This year, shitty pitchers might start getting 10 million a year again. Who knows.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I don't disagree with your premise, but I'd like to clarify something. Milton Bradley was signed on 1/6/09, which was after the market went south, not before.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


If the market had already turned, how did Fuentes get 9 million a year a week before? And Derek Lowe for 4 years and 60 million a week later?

I can't tell you the EXACT date it changed, but the market went from paying Farnsworth 5 million dollars a year to be a middle reliever in December, to Abreu signing for 5 million to play right field in February, to Pedro Martinez not being able to make 5 million to start until June.

[The Dude]

I don't know anyone who thought resigning Dempster to that kind of money was a good idea. This isn't revisionist history- it was just way too much for a starter of his caliber, even before the economy tanked. Like always, I'm sure the Cubs expected him to repeat his career year over and over.