Imagine: 2009 minus Soriano

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=62703:date=Sep 11 2009, 03:03 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 11 2009, 03:03 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=62702:date=Sep 11 2009, 03:01 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Sep 11 2009, 03:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I'll try this again.

This thread isn't meant to be about Soriano at <i>all</i>. It's about a parallel universe where Soriano or at least his Cubs contract doesn't even exist. It's last winter and we don't have any gazillion dollar/100-year contract for any LF. From that point forward, how much difference would this season have been without that budget item?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think I'm missing a piece of the puzzle. Who is our LFer? Or do we have to pick up a LFer in the 2008 offseason? Or is it Jake Fox?
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Let's say it's Jake...we're not expecting much out of him and we think we'll probably need help in left...then Jake turns out to be Jake...he surprises us. We failed to make a deal for some other expensive free agent over the winter...we're gonna start the year with Jake and hold our breath. The season unfolds otherwise, as it has. Lots of injuries...bullpen troubles...plenty of guys struggling to produce on offense...a big hole in the middle of the infield...BUT...this huge pile of money that was never spent because Soriano doesn't exist.

So we're players in the trade market last winter and before the non-waiver trading deadline. We have a shot at anyone that goes on the auction block...same shot the Cards had.

[Scarey]

I don't think it makes that much of a difference honestly. I know Soriano has been a huge contributer to the crappy season, but I don't think switching one player on this roster makes that much of a difference... especially when you consider all the Cubs that sucked wtih Soriano.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=62707:date=Sep 11 2009, 03:19 PM:name=Baron)-->QUOTE (Baron @ Sep 11 2009, 03:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=62698:date=Sep 11 2009, 02:58 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 11 2009, 02:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=62694:date=Sep 11 2009, 02:52 PM:name=twitterwoods)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (twitterwoods @ Sep 11 2009, 02:52 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=62690:date=Sep 11 2009, 02:48 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 11 2009, 02:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->What could have been...<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I dont think we ever really stood a chance at Carlos Lee (I would have preferred him too). Wasn't Houston his offseason home?
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Didn't he sign for 4/48? What if we threw 5/60 his way? I think he'd be a Cub right now. Hendry likes his 5-tool guys, though...
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6/100, 5/60 would have been laughed at.

Edit: So he is getting essentially the same $/year that Soriano is.
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I thought he got way less from the Astros. Yes, of course 5/60 would've been laughed at since he got 6/100. But I thought 5/60 would've been higher than what he got. I was wrong.

Those extra two years of Soriano are going to be fucking painful while Carlos Lee will be some other team's problem during his years in decline.

[Coach]

I have no doubt that Carlos would have sucked here also.

[PcB]

<!--quoteo(post=62713:date=Sep 11 2009, 03:38 PM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 11 2009, 03:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I have no doubt that Carlos would have sucked here also.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's where I'm at. I really don't think any FA signing for this team will work out the way we would expect it to.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=62713:date=Sep 11 2009, 03:38 PM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 11 2009, 03:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I have no doubt that Carlos would have sucked here also.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It's a distinct possibility.

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=62710:date=Sep 11 2009, 03:32 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Sep 11 2009, 03:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I don't think it makes that much of a difference honestly. I know Soriano has been a huge contributer to the crappy season, but I don't think switching one player on this roster makes that much of a difference... especially when you consider all the Cubs that sucked wtih Soriano.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Ack! I give up.

Ok, no I don't. Not having that contract doesn't translate into spending that much money on someone else. It could be spent on several players. Our payroll situation meant we weren't in the market for a bunch of otherwise affordable players.

I understand the gamble Hendry made. You give an old fart too much money for too many years because you're almost <i>there</i> and you're going after the brass ring. If the post-season had gone as advertised last year, no one would care that Soriano was going to be a grossly overpaid has-been before the contract was out. That's just how it works.

But winning it all during the first few years of that contract was only way it was ever going to work out well. Failing that, it just hamstrings the club too much. I'm not sure with everything else that went wrong for the Cubs this season that any one player could have had a year to offset the rest of the problems. I don't think it's about Soriano specifically. I think that committing that much of your payroll to anyone you know is going to go bad before you're done paying him is a bad idea. It's too big a gamble...if that one guy has a lousy year, you can't afford to retool.

I think ideally you'd want everyone on your club to be someone that if you had to deal them, you could because the amount of their contract you'd end up having to pay to get rid of them wouldn't be ludicrous.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=62713:date=Sep 11 2009, 03:38 PM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Sep 11 2009, 03:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I have no doubt that Carlos would have sucked here also.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I imagine his defense would have been slightly worse than in Houston, and he probably would have had the typical career worst 1st year in Chicago, offensively speaking as well. Also, if the fans started booing him like they did with Strap and now Bradley, who knows how he'd react.

[kbwsb]

jstraw, I see where you're going, but it's a mental gymnastic game, similar to "What would the '60's have been like if JFK would have survived," or "What would the world be like if Germany hadn't invaded Russia, and won WWII?"

Hindsight is 20/20. As Sipes mentioned, the best possible move we could have made at any time in Hendry's career was acquiring Carlos Beltran. We had 2 chances to do it: Jim stupidly whiffed on the mid-season trade that cost us the 2004 playoffs, and gift-wrapped them for the Astros. But he quickly realized his folly, and tried pretty hard to sign Beltran that winter. But he was outbid by the Mets, and probably thought to himself, "Dammit, that was the #1 FA, and I wanted him. Next time, no one is gonna outbid me!"
That's how we got Alf, who for all his negatives, was definitely the #1 FA during the winter in which we signed him. (and yes, it's now obvious that C Lee would have worked out a lot better for us, but <i>at the time</i>, this was questionable.)

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=62723:date=Sep 11 2009, 04:08 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Sep 11 2009, 04:08 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->jstraw, I see where you're going, but it's a mental gymnastic game, similar to "What would the '60's have been like if JFK would have survived," or "What would the world be like if Germany hadn't invaded Russia, and won WWII?"

Hindsight is 20/20. As Sipes mentioned, the best possible move we could have made at any time in Hendry's career was acquiring Carlos Beltran. We had 2 chances to do it: Jim stupidly whiffed on the mid-season trade that cost us the 2004 playoffs, and gift-wrapped them for the Astros. But he quickly realized his folly, and tried pretty hard to sign Beltran that winter. But he was outbid by the Mets, and probably thought to himself, "Dammit, that was the #1 FA, and I wanted him. Next time, no one is gonna outbid me!"
That's how we got Alf, who for all his negatives, was definitely the #1 FA during the winter in which we signed him. (and yes, it's now obvious that C Lee would have worked out a lot better for us, but <i>at the time</i>, this was questionable.)<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I pondered whether this is just an issue of hindsight or something else. I think it's about GM philosophy. I think there are players that are purchases and players that are rentals. I think a player at a certain stage of his career needs to be viewed as a rental and if you can't rent 'em...you should pass on them completely. Yeah, if they give you a career year, it doesn't matter but how often does that really work out?

I'm all for giving a player a ton of money for a load of years if you're getting them for what looks to be a lot of their prime. Albert money...Manny money...Jeter money... I'm fine with paying that if that's what you're getting...a franchise cornerstone for half a decade or more.

But if you're looking for a veteran or two to fill needs because you're a few role-players away for contending for a championship...rent them...don't mortgage the future for what may or may not happen with them during the front end of a long deal.

[rok]

Maybe my memory is a little foggy, but I don't believe that we were ever in the running for Beltran either via trade nor in the FA market. Weren't we still loyal to CPatt at the time?

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Imagine: 2009 minus Soriano<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If Lennon were still alive, he'd write a song about it.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=62728:date=Sep 11 2009, 04:25 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 11 2009, 04:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Imagine: 2009 minus Soriano<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If Lennon were still alive, he'd write a song about it.
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i think phan needs to write us a parody.

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=62728:date=Sep 11 2009, 04:25 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 11 2009, 04:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Imagine: 2009 minus Soriano<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If Lennon were still alive, he'd write a song about it.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

<i>Imagine Soriano
On some other team
No one to pay forever
His lack of passion makes me scream</i>

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=62726:date=Sep 11 2009, 04:21 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Sep 11 2009, 04:21 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Maybe my memory is a little foggy, but I don't believe that we were ever in the running for Beltran either via trade nor in the FA market. Weren't we still loyal to CPatt at the time?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It was certainly discussed at length on ITI. In fact, my signature at the bottom of each post was something like "TRADE FOR BELTRAN" that year. (Until Houston traded for him; they traded Octavio Dotel, John Buck and cash).
And Jim certainly tried to get him that winter. It was reported that he offered Beltran $96 million, which was a pretty high figure (though not close to the $117 or 119 mil the Mets ponied up).