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If only SS wasn't the second most important fielding position on the diamond, Theriot would be fine.
As luck would have it, it is.
Still, as Andy has pointed out, we could do worse, and unless we're going to land a sterling glove, who else could we get to play SS?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=65374:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:58 PM:name=Andy)-->QUOTE (Andy @ Oct 5 2009, 02:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65370:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65352:date=Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM:name=1060Ivy)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Here some steps that a Cubs GM would probably have to work through in order or importance.
A) Find out what your budget parameters for 2010 and expectations for 2011 and 2012.
B) Move Bradley - Determine your outfield situation, still looking for a dependable, middle of the order hitter
C) Determine starting pitching situation
D) Move Miles - Determine infield situation
E) Trade Hoffpauir or Fox - Rework bench
F) Re-examine the bullpen - Get a dependable lefty sometime before July 2010
<b>Overall, what the Cubs sorely lacked in 2009 was a consistent RBI producer. The team scored almost less a run a game less in 2009 than 2008. Cubs scored 707 runs in 2009 vs 855 in 2008. The OBP decreased from 354 to 332 from 2009 to 2008 which tells me that the team could still get on base at a near acceptable level - same as the White Sox and Phillies in 2008 both of which scored at or near 800 runs - but scoring 148 runs less than the previous year is appalling. </b>
You can bitch about Gregg and the bullpen blowing saves but when it came down to it, the Cubs just couldn't score runs in 2009.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ivy, I liked many of those moves.
But I do have to point out a huge Logic Fail in your closing paragraph.
When your team OBP drops 22 points, that is a GIGANTIC drop. THAT is the reason we scored 148 runs less. That is the reason. There is no such thing as "an RBI producer." Guys who do produce RBI's are simply guys who can hit well, and come up to bat <b>with men on base.</b>
In 2005, Derrek Lee had one of the greatest seasons of all-time. Check out his numbers against Pujols' numbers that year (Pujols was MVP): they're equal or better in every category EXCEPT RBI. Batting before Lee for most of that year? The pitcher, Corey Patterson, and Neifi Perez. And there is your explanation.
The White Sox and Phillies play their games in the #1 HR parks (or near #1 every season) in their respective leagues, so they get a ton of runs from cheap, warning track-calibre homers.
The Cubs need guys who can get on base. .332 is NOT an acceptable OBP.
End of rant.
<!--coloro:#4169e1--> <!--/coloro--><!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->And so when Theo — in a clear effort to steer the conversation toward a point he wanted to make — said that J.D. Drew was second among everyday American League outfielders in OPS (behind only Boston's Jason Bay), I thought: "Hmm, where is this going?"
As it turned out, it was going to Theo Epstein explaining why RBIs are no way to evaluate baseball players.
"Sometimes you get stuck in the world of evaluating players through home runs and RBIs. And it's not the way that I think most clubs do it these days. And if you look at underlying performance of a lot of our guys, they bring more to the table than just the counting stats. And J.D.'s certainly having another good year for us. He's up around a .900 OPS right now, and he's playing really good defense in right field, he deserves an awful lot of credit for that, he's been pretty darned good for the three years that he's been here if you look at the underlying performance."
The radio guys here protest a little … they point out that while Drew's OPS is usually good, they aren't sure that it has led to PRODUCTION — namely runs scored and RBIs. And this is when Theo really takes over. I bold out a few of my favorite thoughts in this wonderful little lesson:
"That's not true. With RBIs, yes. Based on his skill set, he's always going to have underwhelming RBI totals. I couldn't care less. When you're putting together a winning team, that honestly doesn't matter. When you have a player who takes a ton of walks, who doesn't put the ball in play at an above average rate, and is a certain type of hitter, he's not going to drive in a lot of runs. Runs scored, you couldn't be more wrong. If you look at a rate basis, J.D. scores a ton of runs.
"And the reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that's NOT MAKE OUTS. He doesn't make outs. He's always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he's a really good base runner. So when he doesn't make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It's outstanding.
"You guys can talk about RBIs if you want, I just … we ignore them in the front office … and I think we've built some pretty good offensive clubs. If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about it as a percentage of opportunity but it's just simply not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players."<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--><!--colorc-->
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The SS argument is that Theriot had a better OBP than any Free Agent SS. Freddy Sanchez would be interesting at 2B if the Giants don't keep him.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I would be just fine with Theriot playing 2B, but he just doesn't have the range to play SS.
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<!--quoteo(post=65375:date=Oct 5 2009, 03:01 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Oct 5 2009, 03:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->If only SS wasn't the second most important fielding position on the diamond, Theriot would be fine.
As luck would have it, it is.
Still, as Andy has pointed out, we could do worse, and unless we're going to land a sterling glove, who else could we get to play SS?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I honestly like Blanco. But if he's in your lineup you need to find another top notch bat elsewhere (2B or CF).
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That said, Theriot had a pretty shitty OBP for a guy who doesn't drive in runs and who can't field his position adequately. As an #8 hitter, that's acceptable, but not for a #1/#2 hitter. No sir.
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I really don't get the feeling that the Cubs feel like we need an upgrade at SS and I think Theriot will be there again next season.
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Am I the only one who thinks Baker will revert to 2008 form if given a starting role? He had, what, 70 ABs with the Cubs?
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<!--quoteo(post=65381:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Am I the only one who thinks Baker will revert to 2008 form if given a starting role? He had, what, 70 ABs with the Cubs?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
You mean since 99% of guys tend to return to their previous levels when given enough playing time? (see Fontenot, Mike).
Yeah, I'm with you, Butch.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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We need another SP, whether it's resigning Harden or signing someone else, it needs to happen. Randy Wells will suck next year. Sloth can be the 6th starter.
We need another catcher, Koyie as the backup ain't gonna work. I think the 2009 Soto, is the real Soto.
We need a SS and we need to move Theriot to 2B to platoon with Fontenot. (this will never happen, but it should)
Bradley should be traded straight up for whatever bad contract corner OFer the Cubs can get.
Let Johnson, Gregg, Hill, and Heilman leave. They're all very useless. See if anyone wants Miles too.
Bring back everyone else.
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<!--quoteo(post=65381:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Am I the only one who thinks Baker will revert to 2008 form if given a starting role? He had, what, 70 ABs with the Cubs?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I wouldn't be surprised at all. He's fine as a backup though as long as he stays healthy, but Hendry had better not fall for him like he did Fontenot last year. If he does, he should be fired for that alone.
I also wouldn't be shocked if Wells were back in AAA by next May either. Our depth could be a serious problem again in 2010.
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I mostly agree with you KB, however you need to look at the Cubs split stats with RISP. It was miserable this year and another big reason they didn't score as many runs this year.
I'm not going to get into the argument about "is there such a thing as clutch players". There's reasons some players can hit better with RISP, and it mostly has to do with understanding the situation, understanding how a pitcher will react in that situation, and making adjustments to do everything possible to get a runner in. The Cubs were not good at that this year. Period.
And they weren't very good at getting on base.
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<!--quoteo(post=65385:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:10 PM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Oct 5 2009, 02:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->We need another SP, whether it's resigning Harden or signing someone else, it needs to happen. Randy Wells will suck next year. Sloth can be the 6th starter.
We need another catcher, Koyie as the backup ain't gonna work. I think the 2009 Soto, is the real Soto.
We need a SS and we need to move Theriot to 2B to platoon with Fontenot. (this will never happen, but it should)
Bradley should be traded straight up for whatever bad contract corner OFer the Cubs can get.
Let Johnson, Gregg, Hill, and Heilman leave. They're all very useless. See if anyone wants Miles too.
Bring back everyone else.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Strangely, I agree with most of this.
Although, I'm not sure if I agree with Rube and rok that Wells is going to suck next year; I do expect a dropoff.
I'm perfectly willing to use the Sloth as the #5. He gives you MLB-average pitching every year. Why pay $7 mil for a #5 when the Sloth can do it for cheap?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=65381:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Am I the only one who thinks Baker will revert to 2008 form if given a starting role? He had, what, 70 ABs with the Cubs?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think you slightly under estimate the number of at bats Baker had with the Cubs. From the point he was traded to the Cubs, he was pretty much a regular.
He ended up with 203 at bats in 69 games.
I got nothin'.
Andy
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<!--quoteo(post=65391:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:16 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Oct 5 2009, 02:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I mostly agree with you KB, however you need to look at the Cubs split stats with RISP. It was miserable this year and another big reason they didn't score as many runs this year.
I'm not going to get into the argument about "is there such a thing as clutch players". There's reasons some players can hit better with RISP, and it mostly has to do with understanding the situation, understanding how a pitcher will react in that situation, and making adjustments to do everything possible to get a runner in. The Cubs were not good at that this year. Period.
And <!--sizeo:3--><!--/sizeo--><b>they weren't very good at getting on base.</b><!--sizec--><!--/sizec--> Ignore alll that other stuff I said about guys being "clutchy."<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Fixed.
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif[/img]
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=65394:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:18 PM:name=Andy)-->QUOTE (Andy @ Oct 5 2009, 02:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65381:date=Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Oct 5 2009, 02:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Am I the only one who thinks Baker will revert to 2008 form if given a starting role? He had, what, 70 ABs with the Cubs?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think you slightly under estimate the number of at bats Baker had with the Cubs. From the point he was traded to the Cubs, he was pretty much a regular.
He ended up with 203 at bats in 69 games.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
And Fontenot had 243 at bats before he was handed the starting role.
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<!--quoteo(post=65370:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65352:date=Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM:name=1060Ivy)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><b>Overall, what the Cubs sorely lacked in 2009 was a consistent RBI producer. The team scored almost less a run a game less in 2009 than 2008. Cubs scored 707 runs in 2009 vs 855 in 2008. The OBP decreased from 354 to 332 from 2009 to 2008 which tells me that the team could still get on base at a near acceptable level - same as the White Sox and Phillies in 2008 both of which scored at or near 800 runs - but scoring 148 runs less than the previous year is appalling. </b>
You can bitch about Gregg and the bullpen blowing saves but when it came down to it, the Cubs just couldn't score runs in 2009.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ivy, I liked many of those moves.
But I do have to point out a huge Logic Fail in your closing paragraph.
When your team OBP drops 22 points, that is a GIGANTIC drop. THAT is the reason we scored 148 runs less. That is the reason. There is no such thing as "an RBI producer." Guys who do produce RBI's are simply guys who can hit well, and come up to bat <b>with men on base.</b>
In 2005, Derrek Lee had one of the greatest seasons of all-time. Check out his numbers against Pujols' numbers that year (Pujols was MVP): they're equal or better in every category EXCEPT RBI. Batting before Lee for most of that year? The pitcher, Corey Patterson, and Neifi Perez. And there is your explanation.
The White Sox and Phillies play their games in the #1 HR parks (or near #1 every season) in their respective leagues, so they get a ton of runs from cheap, warning track-calibre homers.
The Cubs need guys who can get on base. .332 is NOT an acceptable OBP.
End of rant.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The player I would use to counter your argument is a Chicago favorite - Milton Bradley - that's if you're a Sox fan.
Bradley has a solid OBP - 378 which puts him in the top 20 of all MLB players if he had enough at bats to qualify. Seemed like he would be a great fit for that middle of the order hitter. Well, we know how that worked out. Cubs realized 2/3's through the season that the guy could get on base but was more likely to walk or a single that doesn't score a run than actually drive in runs when runners were in scoring position.
The best example of "clutch" hitting is probably Albert Pujols stats in bases loaded situations. The guy is a machine. His BA is 588 and OBP is 524 with bases loaded compared to 327 and 443.
BTW, St Louis's OBP this year - same as the Cubs, 332, which shows that a team can win with an average OBP but only when they produce when runners are in scoring position and have great pitching.
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