Time to play GM

[Andy]

You're the Cubs GM for the off season. You've been given a $135 mil payroll to use as needed. Where are you taking this roster:

Contracts already signed:
Soriano - $18.000
Ramirez - $15.750
DLee - $13.000
Fukudome - $13.000
Bradley - $9.000
Miles - $2.700
Zambrano - $17.785
Dempster - $12.500
Lilly - $12.000
Samardzija - $2.000
--------------------
Total existing contracts: $115.735

Players ineligible for free agency with 2009 pay:
Heilman - 1.625
Cotts - 1.100
Marmol - 0.575
Soto - 0.575
Theriot - 0.500
Hill - 0.475
Marshall - 0.475
Gorzelanny - 0.433
Fontenot - 0.430
Guzman - 0.422
Baker - 0.415
Hoffpauir - 0.408
Wells - 0.402
Fox - 0.402
Fuld - 0.402
Atkins - 0.400
Berg - 0.400


Possible Free Agent Losses with 2009 pay:
Harden - $7.000
Gregg - $4.200
R Johnson - $3.000
Grabow - $2.300

Moves???

[The Dude]

punt.

[Coldneck]

I would do everything in my power to trade bradley with his salary for a non-useless piece. Whether that is Burrell or Rowand I am pretty sure his absence alone would be a net positive.

I do what I can to fill the 5th spot in the rotation. With a $135M budget, we'll be unable to sign or trade for a great pitcher without trading away similar salary. Gorz and Spellcheck are not the answer. Jason Marquis is a free agent [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif[/img]. Seriously, we need someone who can eat innings and put up a sub 5 ERA. most likley we'll end up with Sean Marshall as our #5.

[Butcher]

- Bradley for Burrell.

- Sign Lackey.

- Trade for a SS (?) and move Theriot to 2B.

Done.

I have no idea who the SS is, and who we're trading for him, but I can't handle another year of Theriot at short.

I'm sure the budget for Lackey probably isn't there, but whatever. I can dream.

[1060Ivy]

Here some steps that a Cubs GM would probably have to work through in order or importance.

A) Find out what your budget parameters for 2010 and expectations for 2011 and 2012.

[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif[/img] Move Bradley - Determine your outfield situation, still looking for a dependable, middle of the order hitter

C) Determine starting pitching situation

D) Move Miles - Determine infield situation

E) Trade Hoffpauir or Fox - Rework bench

F) Re-examine the bullpen - Get a dependable lefty sometime before July 2010

Overall, what the Cubs sorely lacked in 2009 was a consistent RBI producer. The team scored almost less a run a game less in 2009 than 2008. Cubs scored 707 runs in 2009 vs 855 in 2008. The OBP decreased from 354 to 332 from 2009 to 2008 which tells me that the team could still get on base at a near acceptable level - same as the White Sox and Phillies in 2008 both of which scored at or near 800 runs - but scoring 148 runs less than the previous year is appalling.

You can bitch about Gregg and the bullpen blowing saves but when it came down to it, the Cubs just couldn't score runs in 2009.

[rok]

Whatever we do, Hendry had better resist the temptation to trade for a bum like Uggla to play 2B. We need to be focusing on CF and SS, and I hate to say it, but we are probably set pitching wise. Let Gregg go, re-sign Grabow and throw a few kids in there like Caridad and Berg/Stevens to round out the pen. It's too bad we can't add a top of the rotation type SP, but I think we can survive without one. I'm just not getting that excited with this team, unless Ricketts comes in and goes on a spending spree.

[Butcher]

Starting 5:

- Z
- Lilly
- Dempster
- Wells
- (Gorz/Marshall/someone else?)

That isn't too horrible, I guess, if we can score some runs.

[rok]

Interesting take from Desipio. They're pretty unmerciful with Phil Rogers, and that's always a good thing.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=65357:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:12 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Oct 5 2009, 01:12 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Interesting take from Desipio. They're pretty unmerciful with Phil Rogers, and that's always a good thing.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They pretty much hate everyone -- and they are right to do so.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->If failing meant you stopped trying, Phil Rogers would not have any younger brothers or sisters.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]

[Scarey]

Lineup without moves would look like this.

1.
2. Fukudome RF/CF
3. Lee 1B
4. Ramirez 3B
5. Soriano LF
6. Baker 2B
7. Soto C
8.

Bench
Miles
Fontenot
Hill

Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wells
Tom Gorzelanny

Bullpen
Marmol
Guzman
Marshall


That leaves Bradley, Fox, and Theriot as trade pieces. I would see what combination of them we would have to deal to Kansas City to snag Gil Meche while taking on as little of Bradley's contract as possible. I'm not wild about Meche, but if KC is wanting to get out of his contract and add a productive hitter, hopefully we can facilitate that. If it doesn't work, I'm fine with Gorz as our 5th starter. The Tigers, Angels, Indians, Mets and Giants may have a bad contract they want to swap out instead. In any scenario, Fox and Theriot can be spun off for prospects.

As for the outfield vacancy, Lou has talked about getting a big bat, but I don't know if that's a possiblity or not. However, I'm thinking if he's talking about it, he has been told his request would be filled. I'm gonna go conservative on expectations though. Abreu may be the guy the Cubs are targetting. If that's what happens, I'd put him no. 2 and bat Kosuke leadoff. Some other realistic names I would be interested in are Xavier Nady, Hideki Matsui, and Marlon Byrd.

The shortstop hole is not going to be a hole long IMO. There's plenty of Cubs prospects that are going to be able to play there, so I think a quick fix is all that's necessary. I'd like to see a defensive oriented shortstop, so either Jack Wilson or Marco Scutaro would be a nice fit, as long as they don't cost an arm and a leg.

If we could trade Miles, I would. Unfortunatley I think he either takes up a bench spot or the Cubs just DFA him. Either way, the Cubs will be on the hook for his salary. I'm willing to give Fontenot another chance off the bench to see if he can regain his 2008 production as a part time player. Hill is an option to backup Soto, I think he did very well as a backup. I'm not married to him though and if Chris Robinson or Steve Clevenger look like more appealing options, I'm all for it. Hoffpauir, Scales, and Blanco are options for the bench as well. I'd honestly like to see Darwin Barney as a bench player just because he's such a good defender, but I think it would hinder his development. If the outfielder the Cubs get isn't versitile enough to play in center, then Reed Johnson or someone else from the FA pool can be signed.

The bullpen I would put up for grabs. I think Jeff Stevens, John Gaub, and Blake Parker could and should be viable relievers. I'd be willing to give Samardzija a chance to make the bullpen as well. There is absolutely no reason to sign any free agents to the bullpen. I'm actually hesitant to offer Heilman arbitration. He ended up having a somewhat acceptable year, but I hate to see them spend even 2 million on one player for the bullpen unless it's an elite thrower.

[Andy]

Trade Bradley for another bad contract - Burrell.
Resign Johnson.
Resign Grabow.
Eat the remainder of Miles' contract.
Let Harden, Gregg and Heilman walk.
Look for a SS (won't find one).
Keep Baker at 2B.
Add no one to the bullpen.
Look for a #4-5 starter.

C - Soto, Hill or minor leaguer
1B - DLee
2B - Baker
3B - Ramirez
SS - Theriot
LF - Burrell
CF - Fukudome
RF - Soriano
Util - Johnson, Fox, Hoffpauir, Fuld, Scales, Blanco

SP - Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Wells, Marshall or Gorzellany or FA pickup.
BP - Marmol, Guzman, Smardzija, Grabow, Berg, Stevens, some kid that shows a flash in ST.

[rok]

It would be so typical of the Cubs to trade for Meche after he turned us down a few years ago and we ended up getting stuck with Marquis. I'm not saying that I wouldn't want him (he's very similar to Harden but is able to stay healthy), but it would be an odd turn of events.

[kbwsb]

<!--quoteo(post=65352:date=Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM:name=1060Ivy)-->QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><b>Overall, what the Cubs sorely lacked in 2009 was a consistent RBI producer. The team scored almost less a run a game less in 2009 than 2008. Cubs scored 707 runs in 2009 vs 855 in 2008. The OBP decreased from 354 to 332 from 2009 to 2008 which tells me that the team could still get on base at a near acceptable level - same as the White Sox and Phillies in 2008 both of which scored at or near 800 runs - but scoring 148 runs less than the previous year is appalling. </b>

You can bitch about Gregg and the bullpen blowing saves but when it came down to it, the Cubs just couldn't score runs in 2009.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ivy, I liked many of those moves.
But I do have to point out a huge Logic Fail in your closing paragraph.
When your team OBP drops 22 points, that is a GIGANTIC drop. THAT is the reason we scored 148 runs less. That is the reason. There is no such thing as "an RBI producer." Guys who do produce RBI's are simply guys who can hit well, and come up to bat <b>with men on base.</b>

In 2005, Derrek Lee had one of the greatest seasons of all-time. Check out his numbers against Pujols' numbers that year (Pujols was MVP): they're equal or better in every category EXCEPT RBI. Batting before Lee for most of that year? The pitcher, Corey Patterson, and Neifi Perez. And there is your explanation.

The White Sox and Phillies play their games in the #1 HR parks (or near #1 every season) in their respective leagues, so they get a ton of runs from cheap, warning track-calibre homers.

The Cubs need guys who can get on base. .332 is NOT an acceptable OBP.
End of rant.

[Andy]

<!--quoteo(post=65370:date=Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Oct 5 2009, 01:51 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=65352:date=Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM:name=1060Ivy)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Oct 5 2009, 12:55 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Here some steps that a Cubs GM would probably have to work through in order or importance.

A) Find out what your budget parameters for 2010 and expectations for 2011 and 2012.

B) Move Bradley - Determine your outfield situation, still looking for a dependable, middle of the order hitter

C) Determine starting pitching situation

D) Move Miles - Determine infield situation

E) Trade Hoffpauir or Fox - Rework bench

F) Re-examine the bullpen - Get a dependable lefty sometime before July 2010

<b>Overall, what the Cubs sorely lacked in 2009 was a consistent RBI producer. The team scored almost less a run a game less in 2009 than 2008. Cubs scored 707 runs in 2009 vs 855 in 2008. The OBP decreased from 354 to 332 from 2009 to 2008 which tells me that the team could still get on base at a near acceptable level - same as the White Sox and Phillies in 2008 both of which scored at or near 800 runs - but scoring 148 runs less than the previous year is appalling. </b>

You can bitch about Gregg and the bullpen blowing saves but when it came down to it, the Cubs just couldn't score runs in 2009.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ivy, I liked many of those moves.
But I do have to point out a huge Logic Fail in your closing paragraph.
When your team OBP drops 22 points, that is a GIGANTIC drop. THAT is the reason we scored 148 runs less. That is the reason. There is no such thing as "an RBI producer." Guys who do produce RBI's are simply guys who can hit well, and come up to bat <b>with men on base.</b>

In 2005, Derrek Lee had one of the greatest seasons of all-time. Check out his numbers against Pujols' numbers that year (Pujols was MVP): they're equal or better in every category EXCEPT RBI. Batting before Lee for most of that year? The pitcher, Corey Patterson, and Neifi Perez. And there is your explanation.

The White Sox and Phillies play their games in the #1 HR parks (or near #1 every season) in their respective leagues, so they get a ton of runs from cheap, warning track-calibre homers.

The Cubs need guys who can get on base. .332 is NOT an acceptable OBP.
End of rant.

<!--coloro:#4169e1--><!--/coloro--><!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->And so when Theo — in a clear effort to steer the conversation toward a point he wanted to make — said that J.D. Drew was second among everyday American League outfielders in OPS (behind only Boston's Jason Bay), I thought: "Hmm, where is this going?"

As it turned out, it was going to Theo Epstein explaining why RBIs are no way to evaluate baseball players.

"Sometimes you get stuck in the world of evaluating players through home runs and RBIs. And it's not the way that I think most clubs do it these days. And if you look at underlying performance of a lot of our guys, they bring more to the table than just the counting stats. And J.D.'s certainly having another good year for us. He's up around a .900 OPS right now, and he's playing really good defense in right field, he deserves an awful lot of credit for that, he's been pretty darned good for the three years that he's been here if you look at the underlying performance."

The radio guys here protest a little … they point out that while Drew's OPS is usually good, they aren't sure that it has led to PRODUCTION — namely runs scored and RBIs. And this is when Theo really takes over. I bold out a few of my favorite thoughts in this wonderful little lesson:

"That's not true. With RBIs, yes. Based on his skill set, he's always going to have underwhelming RBI totals. I couldn't care less. When you're putting together a winning team, that honestly doesn't matter. When you have a player who takes a ton of walks, who doesn't put the ball in play at an above average rate, and is a certain type of hitter, he's not going to drive in a lot of runs. Runs scored, you couldn't be more wrong. If you look at a rate basis, J.D. scores a ton of runs.

"And the reason he scores a ton of runs is because he does the single most important thing you can do in baseball as an offensive player. And that's NOT MAKE OUTS. He doesn't make outs. He's always among our team leaders in on-base percentage, usually among the league leaders in on-base percentage. And he's a really good base runner. So when he doesn't make outs, and he gets himself on base, he scores runs — and he has some good hitters hitting behind him. Look at his runs scored on a rate basis with the Red Sox or throughout his career. It's outstanding.

"You guys can talk about RBIs if you want, I just … we ignore them in the front office … and I think we've built some pretty good offensive clubs. If you want to talk about RBIs at all, talk about it as a percentage of opportunity but it's just simply not a way or something we use to evaluate offensive players."<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd--><!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->
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The SS argument is that Theriot had a better OBP than any Free Agent SS. Freddy Sanchez would be interesting at 2B if the Giants don't keep him.