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<!--quoteo(post=70999:date=Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70979:date=Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto will never be an impact player again.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He just needs to grow up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, he just got lucky for about 18 months. He's Rick Wilkins.
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<!--quoteo(post=70998:date=Dec 8 2009, 07:44 AM:name=1060Ivy)-->QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Dec 8 2009, 07:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70990:date=Dec 8 2009, 03:29 AM:name=vitaminB)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (vitaminB @ Dec 8 2009, 03:29 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Heath Bell = Kevin Gregg<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The guy who led the NL in saves is not the same guy who led the NL in blown saves while he was the closer. Gregg has this nasty habit of giving up the long ball which really doesn't bode well for a closer.
I don't believe that Bell will become a Cub but if we had Bell last year the Cubs would have probably limped into the playoffs as a wildcard.
Bell would be an inexpensive addition to the club but he isn't worth giving up either Theriot or Soto. Plus, I am not as worried about the bullpen as I am about starters and the Cubs ability to score.
Bell's stats
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6084
Gregg's stats
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5641
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I didn't realize that Bell was a quality set up guy before he started closing last year. I still wouldn't give up Theriot for him.
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<!--quoteo(post=71004:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70999:date=Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70979:date=Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto will never be an impact player again.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He just needs to grow up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, he just got lucky for about 18 months. He's Rick Wilkins.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Its too early to get rid of him now.
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I think I read this morning that Hendry denied he was interested in Bell.
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<!--quoteo(post=71010:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:23 AM:name=vitaminB)-->QUOTE (vitaminB @ Dec 8 2009, 08:23 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think I read this morning that Hendry denied he was interested in Bell.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I think he is interested, but not in giving up Theriot or Soto. Personally, I'd give up Theriot in a heartbeat, but I'm not ready to jettison Soto.....yet.
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<!--quoteo(post=71009:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:22 AM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Dec 8 2009, 08:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=71004:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70999:date=Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70979:date=Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto will never be an impact player again.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He just needs to grow up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, he just got lucky for about 18 months. He's Rick Wilkins.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Its too early to get rid of him now.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Well not for Heath Bell, but I wouldn't make him completely off limits.
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The odds of Soto being shitty this year are greater the him being good.
Wang.
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<!--quoteo(post=71004:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70999:date=Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70979:date=Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto will never be an impact player again.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He just needs to grow up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, he just got lucky for about 18 months. He's Rick Wilkins.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Statistically speaking, he was lucky in his in his rookie season. He was extremely unlucky last season though. One thing that's a big plus about Soto is his patience. If luck is not a factor, he should get on base at a .340-.360 clip and slug between .420 and .480. I'll take that from a catcher.
If you not sure what statistical luck is, take a look at this post over at NSBB. I'm not saying this is a rock solid approach, but I think it can generally tell you if a player was lucky or not in a given season. I remember vividly Soto getting a lot of hard hit balls caught, so I already had the opinion that he was unlucky. But this just gives some sort of tangible evidence to back up my claims based on vividly remembering.
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<!--quoteo(post=71020:date=Dec 8 2009, 10:56 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 8 2009, 10:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=71009:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:22 AM:name=Coach)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coach @ Dec 8 2009, 08:22 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=71004:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70999:date=Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70979:date=Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto will never be an impact player again.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He just needs to grow up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, he just got lucky for about 18 months. He's Rick Wilkins.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Its too early to get rid of him now.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Well not for Heath Bell, but I wouldn't make him completely off limits.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No one should ever be completely off limits.
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I'd trade Theriot for whatever we can get for him if it means we get a real SS.
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<!--quoteo(post=71027:date=Dec 8 2009, 10:35 AM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 8 2009, 10:35 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=71004:date=Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 8 2009, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70999:date=Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Dec 8 2009, 07:09 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=70979:date=Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Dec 7 2009, 10:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Soto will never be an impact player again.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
He just needs to grow up.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->No, he just got lucky for about 18 months. He's Rick Wilkins.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->Statistically speaking, he was lucky in his in his rookie season. He was extremely unlucky last season though. One thing that's a big plus about Soto is his patience. If luck is not a factor, he should get on base at a .340-.360 clip and slug between .420 and .480. I'll take that from a catcher.
If you not sure what statistical luck is, take a look at this post over at NSBB. I'm not saying this is a rock solid approach, but I think it can generally tell you if a player was lucky or not in a given season. I remember vividly Soto getting a lot of hard hit balls caught, so I already had the opinion that he was unlucky. But this just gives some sort of tangible evidence to back up my claims based on vividly remembering.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That was a good post, Scarey. I didn't know that the stats indicated that he had a low BABIP last year. That does bode well for a semi "comeback" year.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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Soto and Fukudome had historically bad luck last year.
"Drink Up and Beat Off!"
-KBWSB
"Will I be looked on poorly if my religion involved punting little people?"
-Jody
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<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hearing that Padres offered Kouzmanoff to Giants for Fred Lewis & Kevin Fransden. Asked Twins for Glen Perkins & 2nd player<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They must be asking for the moon for Bell.
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<!--quoteo(post=71259:date=Dec 9 2009, 07:17 PM:name=ColoradoCub)-->QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Dec 9 2009, 07:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hearing that Padres offered Kouzmanoff to Giants for Fred Lewis & Kevin Fransden. Asked Twins for Glen Perkins & 2nd player<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They must be asking for the moon for Bell.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Didn't they almost release Kouzmanoff last year?
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<!--quoteo(post=71262:date=Dec 9 2009, 05:48 PM:name=Ace)-->QUOTE (Ace @ Dec 9 2009, 05:48 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=71259:date=Dec 9 2009, 07:17 PM:name=ColoradoCub)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ColoradoCub @ Dec 9 2009, 07:17 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Hearing that Padres offered Kouzmanoff to Giants for Fred Lewis & Kevin Fransden. Asked Twins for Glen Perkins & 2nd player<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
They must be asking for the moon for Bell.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Didn't they almost release Kouzmanoff last year?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I don't know that they were going to release him, but I thought Towers was pretty down on him... Clearly, the new regime overvalues him based on the fact that he had a decent streak for a couple months last season.
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