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Thoughts on Carlos Silva
#1
I figure that, since he's now a Cub, Silva probably deserves his own discussion. This is not a self-pimp, and I rarely do this, but since I put a lot of thought into and it, and it could make for an interesting discussion, I post the following:

<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Like it or lump it, Carlos Silva is now a member of the Chicago Cubs. And because of his profoundly awful performance the last two years, and egregious contract over the next two years, he’s not likely to go anywhere else. So he’s ours to behold.

But… but… is there any hope?

You know… maybe.

Silva’s failings over the last two years have been well-documented: a 6.46 ERA in 2008, and an 8.60 ERA in an injury-shortened 2009. Those numbers weren’t a matter of bad luck, either. Silva’s calling card has always been control. In his career, he’s been perhaps the most strike-throwingest pitcher in all of baseball, averaging an absolutely minuscule 1.7 walks per nine innings - yes, that is the best in baseball. So it’s no surprise that, in Silva’s worst two seasons, his walks went up. His walks per nine the last two seasons were the highest they’ve been since he was a young reliever in Philadelphia six years ago.

Perhaps not a coincidence, his strikeouts per nine innings - never very high - actually increased in the past two seasons. Normally, that would be a good thing, but it was also commensurate with a dramatic increase in his hits given up per nine innings (an absolutely insane 12.4 hits per nine innings over the last two years). Together, what you have is a guy who started to nibble. That resulted in more strikeouts, but also more walks. And it resulted in counts where he had to come over the plate more often, and he was predictably rocked. I did not follow the Mariners the past two years, but if I did, my guess is I would have seen a guy who was consistently falling behind hitters, and not throwing a first pitch strike. Perhaps there were also mechanical issues at play, in addition to subtle injury concerns, each of which could turn around in 2010. Perhaps.

So how did Silva get that 4/48 contract in the first place? Well, it was two parts improvidence, and one part past success. He was an adequate starter in Minnesota from 2004 to 2007. His ERA+ in that time was solidly over 100 (meaning he was above average) in three of his four seasons, and he averaged over 190 innings pitched. In sum, the guy was a very solid four or five starter; even a three at his best. In 2006, Silva faced 749 batters. He walked 11 of them, and two of those were intentional. In two words: holy shit.

Thus, Silva has a history of being a guy who could fit at the back end of the Cubs’ rotation. But history is just that; and recency, when it comes to ballplayers, is a much better predictor of future success than seasons two or three years ago. Then again, Silva is just 30 years old. Pitchers of Silva’s ilk - that is, crafty, control-based pitchers - often do not peak until their early or mid-30s.

The Cubs have said they’ve been scouting Silva all winter, and claim he looks not only healthy, but much better than the past couple of years.

So you see, there are lots of reasons for hope, but we can’t forget how powerfully awful Silva has been the past two years. It’s grim. And to make matters worse, Silva isn’t exactly a model citizen. Harry at Cubs f/x has gathered together a list of some of Silva’s most notable issues. Lowlights include Silva spouting off to the Seattle media from time to time - ruh roh.

In sum: Carlos Silva used to be pretty ok, and now he seems pretty down and out after a couple very disappointing seasons. He’s got media issues, injury issues, and he’s massively overpaid.

What do you know? He’s a Chicago Cub, after all.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Bleacher Nation.
Cubs News and Rumors at Bleacher Nation.
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#2
I think he will be just fine as a 5th starter.
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#3
I think he will be relegated to the pen by Opening day and if he blows, be DL'd and then given his walking papers by 2011.
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#4
Harry's stuff at cubsfx was a pretty interesting read. I thought the parts talking about how much pressure Silva was putting on himself because of the big contract was pretty telling. It seems that signing that contract while setting Silva up for life, ruined his career. If he comes into camp healthy, with his weight under control, and in shape there is a small chance that he could be a serviceable back of the rotation pitcher. If he can get back to attacking the strike zone with his sinker, not walking anyone, and allowing a few more hits per 9 than I am comfortable seeing we might make out okay on this. Also maybe knowinf that he is replacing a bad contract will allow him to relax a bit.
"Drink Up and Beat Off!"
-KBWSB

"Will I be looked on poorly if my religion involved punting little people?"
-Jody
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#5
I'll be surprised if he is on the team past mid-May but I'm hoping to be wrong.

Like most point out, the trade is not about Silva but getting money back on Bradley's contract.

Cubs starting pitching still needs a decent (mid to high 4 ERA's) innings eater for 2010. Maybe management realizes this and is planning on the bullpen to pitch 3+ innings a game.


Silva could turn it around in 2010 but Bradley could be a great teammate. Neither is probably going to happen.
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#6
Just as an aside, I thought I'd mention how much I've enjoyed reading Bleacher Nation recently, Ace. It's been awesome. I was gonna PM you that, but I'm sure others agree, so what the heck, kudos to you.
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#7
<!--quoteo(post=72658:date=Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM:name=MrSheps)-->QUOTE (MrSheps @ Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just as an aside, I thought I'd mention how much I've enjoyed reading Bleacher Nation recently, Ace. It's been awesome. I was gonna PM you that, but I'm sure others agree, so what the heck, kudos to you.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Yeah. I'm not typically a blog reader, but ever since you put the link panel on the boards I've been checking it out.
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#8
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Silva is 30 years old. Pitchers of Silva’s ilk - that is, crafty, control-based pitchers - often do not peak until their early or mid-30s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That's a falsehood, but that's the my only gripe with an otherwise excellent article, Ace. Good job.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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#9
<!--quoteo(post=72661:date=Dec 21 2009, 02:34 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 21 2009, 02:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Silva is 30 years old. Pitchers of Silva’s ilk - that is, crafty, control-based pitchers - often do not peak until their early or mid-30s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That's a falsehood, but that's the my only gripe with an otherwise excellent article, Ace. Good job.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Maybe he will come into his own as our old friend Marquis did at 31 this past season. [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/rolleyes.gif[/img]
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#10
<!--quoteo(post=72658:date=Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM:name=MrSheps)-->QUOTE (MrSheps @ Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just as an aside, I thought I'd mention how much I've enjoyed reading Bleacher Nation recently, Ace. It's been awesome. I was gonna PM you that, but I'm sure others agree, so what the heck, kudos to you.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Well thanks, Sheps (co-host of the excellent Cubscast, for those still somehow in the dark). That means a lot. It's been about a year now, and it's still a lot of fun to do, so I keep doing it. It doesn't hurt that the readership has continuously increased.

Thanks again. And thanks, Scarey.
Cubs News and Rumors at Bleacher Nation.
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#11
<!--quoteo(post=72661:date=Dec 21 2009, 03:34 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Dec 21 2009, 03:34 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->Silva is 30 years old. Pitchers of Silva’s ilk - that is, crafty, control-based pitchers - often do not peak until their early or mid-30s.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That's a falsehood, but that's the my only gripe with an otherwise excellent article, Ace. Good job.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Thanks for the compliment, and as for the substance - I think a much greater percentage of crafty/control type pitchers reach their peak in their 30s than do any other type of pitcher (or player). Most other guys peak in their 20s, as you have discussed many times.
Cubs News and Rumors at Bleacher Nation.
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#12
Most guys who have put up numbers like Silva are out of baseball by their early-mid thirties. Silva may be done, but I think there is a good chance that he will be a solid starter next year.

I give the trade a thumbs up.
I like you guys a lot.
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#13
<!--quoteo(post=72659:date=Dec 21 2009, 02:20 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 21 2009, 02:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72658:date=Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM:name=MrSheps)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MrSheps @ Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just as an aside, I thought I'd mention how much I've enjoyed reading Bleacher Nation recently, Ace. It's been awesome. I was gonna PM you that, but I'm sure others agree, so what the heck, kudos to you.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Yeah. I'm not typically a blog reader, but ever since you put the link panel on the boards I've been checking it out.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Same here. To be honest without that link I would probably never even go there.
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#14
<!--quoteo(post=72690:date=Dec 21 2009, 06:31 PM:name=stevestonescigar)-->QUOTE (stevestonescigar @ Dec 21 2009, 06:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72659:date=Dec 21 2009, 02:20 PM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Dec 21 2009, 02:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=72658:date=Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM:name=MrSheps)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (MrSheps @ Dec 21 2009, 03:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just as an aside, I thought I'd mention how much I've enjoyed reading Bleacher Nation recently, Ace. It's been awesome. I was gonna PM you that, but I'm sure others agree, so what the heck, kudos to you.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Yeah. I'm not typically a blog reader, but ever since you put the link panel on the boards I've been checking it out.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


Same here. To be honest without that link I would probably never even go there.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Well thanks; I hope it's enjoyable/informative. Glad I put that link box up there.
Cubs News and Rumors at Bleacher Nation.
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#15
I like the content, but there's an odor over there that i can't put my finger on. Like some kind of rancid cheese. Maybe open a window? Other than that it's cool.
Wang.
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