Looks like BP's Pecota projections are out

[cherp]

<!--quoteo(post=78020:date=Jan 29 2010, 02:28 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jan 29 2010, 02:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=77987:date=Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->This, along with Law's minor league rankings are a lot of voodoo in my eyes. The range of reliability of PECOTA is very high - I think I saw it was something like 8.5 games. That's a HUGE range. And the KLaw farm rankings mean so little since guys coming up change so much from lower levels to higher levels. I'd like to see farm systems ranked differently- one ranking for AA and AAA together and another for lower levels. Might be a better view.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I'm not sure I understand. Do you mean a ranking of how those teams did, or a breakdown of prospects by level? If that is the case, how do you categorize someone like Dan Hudson? He literally played at every level last year.
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I'd like to see rankings based probably on where they are starting this year. Sure - there are some guys you'd have to guess at - and then move around. Not sure the mechanics to it. But I can't see how you rank a farm system and put together a Top 10 prospect list with any reliability. You have guys in low A ball who are nowhere close. They may be putting up great numbers and have great talent, but the factor you have to use to reduce their likelihood of doing it at the major league level is so high that it is hard to compare them to a guy in AA or AAA putting up like #s.

I'm not sure how to do it...

I also don't like Law's work. Never have. Seems like a lot of art dressed up in science's clothing.

[BT]

There is something deeply wrong with these projections. They have Shark getting 41 innings. In those 41 innings, he will somehow give up 111 hits and 41 walks. Or, 157 baserunners in 41 innings. Or, nearly 4 baserunners an inning. First, does anyone think he will be that bad? Secondly, if he is close to that bad, does anyone see him getting more than, oh I don't know, FIVE innings pitched? Silva has almost identical numbers as well.

[Ace]

<!--quoteo(post=78151:date=Jan 31 2010, 07:37 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Jan 31 2010, 07:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->There is something deeply wrong with these projections. They have Shark getting 41 innings. In those 41 innings, he will somehow give up 111 hits and 41 walks. Or, 157 baserunners in 41 innings. Or, nearly 4 baserunners an inning. First, does anyone think he will be that bad? <b>Secondly, if he is close to that bad, does anyone see him getting more than, oh I don't know, FIVE innings pitched?</b> Silva has almost identical numbers as well.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=78098:date=Jan 30 2010, 05:22 PM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Jan 30 2010, 05:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=78020:date=Jan 29 2010, 02:28 PM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Jan 29 2010, 02:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=77987:date=Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM:name=cherp)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cherp @ Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->This, along with Law's minor league rankings are a lot of voodoo in my eyes. The range of reliability of PECOTA is very high - I think I saw it was something like 8.5 games. That's a HUGE range. And the KLaw farm rankings mean so little since guys coming up change so much from lower levels to higher levels. I'd like to see farm systems ranked differently- one ranking for AA and AAA together and another for lower levels. Might be a better view.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I'm not sure I understand. Do you mean a ranking of how those teams did, or a breakdown of prospects by level? If that is the case, how do you categorize someone like Dan Hudson? He literally played at every level last year.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I'd like to see rankings based probably on where they are starting this year. Sure - there are some guys you'd have to guess at - and then move around. Not sure the mechanics to it. But I can't see how you rank a farm system and put together a Top 10 prospect list with any reliability. You have guys in low A ball who are nowhere close. They may be putting up great numbers and have great talent, but the factor you have to use to reduce their likelihood of doing it at the major league level is so high that it is hard to compare them to a guy in AA or AAA putting up like #s.

I'm not sure how to do it...

I also don't like Law's work. Never have. Seems like a lot of art dressed up in science's clothing.
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Actually it's because he thinks the Sox system sucks hard, that's the reason.