Looks like BP's Pecota projections are out

[BT]

The good news is the Cardinals are projected to go 79-93, and the Brewers will be 81-81. The bad news is that both teams, and the Reds, will finish ahead of the Cubs, who will limp home with a 76-86 record.

BP Depth Charts

[rok]

And not a single NL team projected with over 90 wins, only 4 >.500 teams in all. These just don't look reasonable at all.

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

<!--quoteo(post=77672:date=Jan 27 2010, 02:27 PM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Jan 27 2010, 02:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->And not a single NL team projected with over 90 wins, only 4 >.500 teams in all. These just don't look reasonable at all.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What he said.

[Coldneck]

It seems there are no teams on either end of the spectrum. The worst is the Pirates with just 90 losses. The best in the Yanks with just 93 wins.

[Butcher]

The Brewers are going to win the division with 81 wins? Wowzers.

[funkster]

Seems like a longshot doesn't it?

[kbwsb]

Didn't the Cards win it with 83 in 2006?

[rok]

Of course these are all moving targets, so the standings were recently updated. We gained 1 whole game!!! And somehow the Cards are now an 89 win team while the Brewers finish with only 75 wins. What exactly happened in the past 2-3 days to cause these major shifts in W-L?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=77971:date=Jan 29 2010, 10:56 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Jan 29 2010, 10:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Of course this is a moving target, so these were recently updated. We gained 1 whole game!!! And somehow the Cards are now an 89 win team while the Brewers finish with only 75 games. What exactly happened in the past 2-3 days to cause these major shifts in W-L?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Rich Hill.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=77972:date=Jan 29 2010, 10:57 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Jan 29 2010, 10:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=77971:date=Jan 29 2010, 10:56 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Jan 29 2010, 10:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Of course these are all moving targets, so the standings were recently updated. We gained 1 whole game!!! And somehow the Cards are now an 89 win team while the Brewers finish with only 75 wins. What exactly happened in the past 2-3 days to cause these major shifts in W-L?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Rich Hill.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm shaking in my boots.

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

And, apparently, signing Edmonds cost the Brewers big time.

[cherp]

This, along with Law's minor league rankings are a lot of voodoo in my eyes. The range of reliability of PECOTA is very high - I think I saw it was something like 8.5 games. That's a HUGE range. And the KLaw farm rankings mean so little since guys coming up change so much from lower levels to higher levels. I'd like to see farm systems ranked differently- one ranking for AA and AAA together and another for lower levels. Might be a better view.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=77987:date=Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->This, along with Law's minor league rankings are a lot of voodoo in my eyes. The range of reliability of PECOTA is very high - I think I saw it was something like 8.5 games. That's a HUGE range. And the KLaw farm rankings mean so little since guys coming up change so much from lower levels to higher levels. I'd like to see farm systems ranked differently- one ranking for AA and AAA together and another for lower levels. Might be a better view.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I'm not sure I understand. Do you mean a ranking of how those teams did, or a breakdown of prospects by level? If that is the case, how do you categorize someone like Dan Hudson? He literally played at every level last year.

[ruby23]

<!--quoteo(post=77987:date=Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Jan 29 2010, 11:38 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->This, along with Law's minor league rankings are a lot of voodoo in my eyes. The range of reliability of PECOTA is very high - I think I saw it was something like 8.5 games. That's a HUGE range. And the KLaw farm rankings mean so little since guys coming up change so much from lower levels to higher levels. I'd like to see farm systems ranked differently- one ranking for AA and AAA together and another for lower levels. Might be a better view.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Of course you don't like Law's rankings, he has the Sox at the bottom.

[bz]

I think we could all make projections within the same range of accuracy as PECOTA.