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<!--quoteo(post=81148:date=Mar 1 2010, 11:40 PM:name=cherp)-->QUOTE (cherp @ Mar 1 2010, 11:40 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Stats are very good at telling you what happened in baseball over a period of time in the past, as long as you don't take any single statistic out of context.
They are very poor at telling you what is going to happen in the future.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
This is false. For instance, minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB.
Are they 100% accurate? No. Is anything?
But stats are hugely useful in predicting how a player will perform in the future, especially if taken in their proper context.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=81432:date=Mar 3 2010, 06:46 PM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Mar 3 2010, 06:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81422:date=Mar 3 2010, 06:22 PM:name=1060Ivy)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (1060Ivy @ Mar 3 2010, 06:22 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->(Pitchers represent anywhere from 9 to 20 of the first 30 picks in each of the last decades drafts.)<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's hardly persuasive considering the median is 15.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The median is 15 and there are 30 teams. About 1/2 of all the picks in the first round are used on pitchers in the last decade.
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I think anyone who works in a profession that requires specific knowledge, understands, that a person with knowledge will provide a better evaluation than statistics. I think so many people, spend so much time with baseball stats, that they don't think baseball is like the rest of the world.
People have no problem understanding human evaluation is far superior to stats in football. That is because even a moderate sports fan, will see a lot of players in action, spend little time going over stats, but still be able to form opinions about who will make a good pro. Even a moderate sports fan can see that stats are not comparable from conference to conference, and there is no formula to correlate college stats to pro.
The very best amateur players make the majors. The best players will tend to have the best stats. By reverse engineering that stats of players that have made the Majors, you can show how their stats predicted their ML success. However since most players in an amateur league do not make the Majors, you can not use any given amateur stat line to predict pro performance.
Stats also leave a lot to be desired when evaluating ML talent. What any given stat measures, may not be the best way to evaluate any given player. Most of them are best at evaluating the best players and the performance of better players tends to very less from year to year. Stats do a worse job on marginal players, there tends to be less data and more variance.
I like you guys a lot.
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<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No.
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<!--quoteo(post=81437:date=Mar 4 2010, 12:47 AM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Mar 4 2010, 12:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I think anyone who works in a profession that requires specific knowledge, understands, that a person with knowledge will provide a better evaluation than statistics. I think so many people, spend so much time with baseball stats, that they don't think baseball is like the rest of the world.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I would prefer to have a person with knowledge <i>as well as</i> a working understanding of and appreciation for advanced stats influencing player personnel decisions over a person with knowledge without such an understanding and appreciation.
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<!--quoteo(post=81445:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM:name=ruby23)-->QUOTE (ruby23 @ Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Bill James may be a sarcastic ass who knows absolutely nothing about baseball, but just for the heck of it, read as far down as #1:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->A Bill James Primer
"What I wanted to write about... is a very basic question. Of all the studies I have done over the last 25 years, what have I learned? What is the relevance of sabermetric knowledge to the decision making process of a team? If I were employed by a major-league team, what are the basic things that I know from the research I have done which would be of use to me in helping that team?"
1.Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.
2.Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average.
3.What a player hits in one ballpark may be radically different from what he would hit in another.
4.Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.
5.The chance of getting a good player with a high draft pick is substantial enough that it is clearly a disastrous strategy to give up a first round draft choice to sign a mediocre free agent. (see note #1)
6.A power pitcher has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability.
7.Single season won-lost records have almost no value as an indicator of a pitcher's contribution to a team.
8.The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base.
9.A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.
10.True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum. (see note #2)
11.Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work. (see note #2)
12. The platoon differential is real and virtually universal
The defensive spectrum looks like this:
[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]
with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=81545:date=Mar 4 2010, 03:35 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 03:35 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81445:date=Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM:name=ruby23)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (ruby23 @ Mar 4 2010, 07:06 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE <!--quotec-->minor-league stats are an excellent indicator of how a player will play in MLB<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Bill James may be a sarcastic ass who knows absolutely nothing about baseball, but just for the heck of it, read as far down as #1:
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->A Bill James Primer
"What I wanted to write about... is a very basic question. Of all the studies I have done over the last 25 years, what have I learned? What is the relevance of sabermetric knowledge to the decision making process of a team? If I were employed by a major-league team, what are the basic things that I know from the research I have done which would be of use to me in helping that team?"
1.Minor league batting statistics will predict major league batting performance with essentially the same reliability as previous major league statistics.
2.Talent in baseball is not normally distributed. It is a pyramid. For every player who is 10 percent above the average player, there are probably twenty players who are 10 pecent below average.
3.What a player hits in one ballpark may be radically different from what he would hit in another.
4.Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.
5.The chance of getting a good player with a high draft pick is substantial enough that it is clearly a disastrous strategy to give up a first round draft choice to sign a mediocre free agent. (see note #1)
6.A power pitcher has a dramatically higher expectation for future wins than does a finesse picther of the same age and ability.
7.Single season won-lost records have almost no value as an indicator of a pitcher's contribution to a team.
8.The largest variable determining how many runs a team will score is how many times they get their leadoff man on base.
9.A great deal of what is perceived as being pitching is in fact defense.
10.True shortage of talent almost never occurs at the left end of the defensive spectrum. (see note #2)
11.Rightward shifts along the defensive spectrum almost never work. (see note #2)
12. The platoon differential is real and virtually universal
The defensive spectrum looks like this:
[ - - 1B - LF - RF - 3B - CF - 2B - SS - C - - ]
with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
#2 is mathematical bullshit.
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#2
It may be only an estimate, instead of solid numbers, but the <i>theme</i> is 100% correct.
Some GM's think you win by collecting a lot of decent to above-average players.
However, history has proven that teams win more with a true superstar or two, surrounded by replacement-calibre players. In other words, one Joe Mauer/Roy Halladay type is worth more than 3 or 4 pretty good players who make the same (combined) amount of money.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=81553:date=Mar 4 2010, 03:59 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 03:59 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->#2
It may be only an estimate, instead of solid numbers, but the <i>theme</i> is 100% correct.
Some GM's think you win by collecting a lot of decent to above-average players.
However, history has proven that teams win more with a true superstar or two, surrounded by replacement-calibre players. In other words, one Joe Mauer/Roy Halladay type is worth more than 3 or 4 pretty good players who make the same (combined) amount of money.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That doesn't mean he isn't speaking gobbledygook. I hate how he is so regimented and stalwart in his canon of statistics, yet because of his status allows himself leeway in making guesses about shit and predicitions, and essentially doing the opposite of what statistics do, ie he is a hypocrite.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?
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<!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Probably more than that, actually.
You're not going to find 20 guys hitting .238 for every one hitting .290 on an active roster, though (because nobody wants to carry any .238 hitters on their team). But you could easily find many of that caliber of player on benches, in the minors, or out of baseball. Probably in a 1/20 ratio, too. Or more.
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<!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As I admitted in my first rebuttal to your questioning of his statement, perhaps the math isn't exact, but are you really going to argue with the basic premise? (That superstars are really hard to come by, and decent players are a dime-a-dozen, and can often be easily replaced by a good AAA guy, or a decent platoon?)
Remember the Angels GM who, when unloading Nolan Ryan, said "He went 16-14 last year. Big deal, we'll replace him with two guys who'll go 8-7."
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--fonto:Arial Black--><!--/fonto-->Wowee-Zowee!!!!! <!--fontc-->
<!--/fontc--> Bill James is using Standard Deviation! Pin a medal on his ballsack!!!!!
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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<!--quoteo(post=81587:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:13 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 05:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As I admitted in my first rebuttal to your questioning of his statement, perhaps the math isn't exact, but are you really going to argue with the basic premise? (That superstars are really hard to come by, and decent players are a dime-a-dozen, and can often be easily replaced by a good AAA guy, or a decent platoon?)
Remember the Angels GM who, when unloading Nolan Ryan, said "He went 16-14 last year. Big deal, we'll replace him with two guys who'll go 8-7."
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No. What I'm going to argue is that 10% over league average is not a superstar and that the discrepancy between 10% over and 10% under is nowhere near 20 to 1.
And there's nothing for you to 'admit." It's on James...he's a (perhaps THE) stats guy. He doesn't get to be hyperbolic about numbers like that. I say that as one that likes Bill James a lot.
And Butcher, I think you contradicted yourself. I think you just explained the main reason that there aren't 20 .238 hitters for every .290 hitters.
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<!--quoteo(post=81603:date=Mar 4 2010, 06:25 PM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 06:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81587:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:13 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Mar 4 2010, 05:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=81581:date=Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Mar 4 2010, 05:01 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Just for example...in 2008, MLB batting average was .264. For every guy that hit .290, 20 guys hit .238? Really?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
As I admitted in my first rebuttal to your questioning of his statement, perhaps the math isn't exact, but are you really going to argue with the basic premise? (That superstars are really hard to come by, and decent players are a dime-a-dozen, and can often be easily replaced by a good AAA guy, or a decent platoon?)
Remember the Angels GM who, when unloading Nolan Ryan, said "He went 16-14 last year. Big deal, we'll replace him with two guys who'll go 8-7."
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No. What I'm going to argue is that 10% over league average is not a superstar and that the discrepancy between 10% over and 10% under is nowhere near 20 to 1.
And there's nothing for you to 'admit." It's on James...he's a (perhaps THE) stats guy. He doesn't get to be hyperbolic about numbers like that. I say that as one that likes Bill James a lot.
And Butcher, I think you contradicted yourself. I think you just explained the main reason that there aren't 20 .238 hitters for every .290 hitters.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Straw, I really have to agree with Butcher (and Bill James) on this. Even in your own example, .290 MLB hitters are <i>not</i> easy to come by. For example, only 2 Cubs hit over .290 last year, and they're, by far, our 2 best hitters (D Lee, Aramis).
Yet there TONS of guys who can hit .238. In fact, we probably have 6-7 guys in AAA who could hit .238 if given the AB's, which is exactly Bill James' point...decent, mediocre players are a dime-a-dozen, so paying them big money is a complete waste of resources. (see Grabow, John).
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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