<!--quoteo(post=85873:date=Apr 5 2010, 12:03 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 5 2010, 12:03 AM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=85852:date=Apr 4 2010, 09:16 PM:name=Scarey)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Scarey @ Apr 4 2010, 09:16 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=85805:date=Apr 4 2010, 03:41 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Apr 4 2010, 03:41 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Agree with Clapp and rok; mostly because we won't know if Clovin is "for real" for a year or two.
He's sucked for <i>years</i>. Now he's had one good month playing practice baseball, and we want to anoint him our everyday guy?
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It doesn't take much away from your point, but Colvin had a fantastic year at AA last year. It's not just his spring training.
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Hmmm...Colvin had a .332 OBP last year, despite playing a portion of the year in A-ball.
Up at Double A, his OBP was .334.
For a corner OFer, that would suck in the <i>majors</i>, much less the low minors.
I consider you one of the foremost authorities on our farm guys, Scarey, but I'm gonna have to disagree with you that a .334 OBP in AA is fantastic. I'm guessing that translates to about a .300 OBP in MLB, which is like the Mendoza line for getting on base.
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I too would like to see his OBP bump up some more. However, you can't just have blinders on when looking at these minor league stats. The way that Colvin has driven the ball the last 10 months is very impressive especially considering the Cubs minor league system is light on power right now.
Don't get me wrong. There is a very high correlation between minor league OBP and major league success. However, these aren't just number readouts here. Each of these players has a story to tell here. Let's take Theriot for an example.
When Theriot came up and raked, there were some people that weren't very educated on his minor league career and felt he was the next big thing based on his immediate success and some people that were condemning him from the start because of his minor league stats. There were some people however (like me, I know this is a total "told you so moment") that wanted to take the wait and see approach. Why? The Cubs experimented with trying to teach Theriot how to switch hit. The theory was that all the PAs he took as a lefty against RHP may have driven his stats down. His number in the minors improved after they changed him to strictly a righty. This makes a lot of sense to us now because we know Theriot has a knack for taking RHP to right field as a rightly.
My point is, the stats didn't tell the whole story in Theriot's case. For Colvin, he's had to deal with a couple of injuries as he's progressed through the minor league system. On top of that, he now seems to be squaring the ball up VERY well now and has put on some weight to increase his bat speed. These factors can at least decrease his Ks. Who knows if he'll ever be a decent IsoD guy. If I'm putting money on it, I would bet he won't. Regardless, he could be a decent contributor ala Randall Simon or with any luck, a Garrett Anderson type.
