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<!--quoteo(post=104466:date=Jul 8 2010, 03:44 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jul 8 2010, 03:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]
I wasn't trying to be a douche.
1. Scarey was certainly implying that Vitter's plate discipline had improved, and I was merely pointing out that a .250 on-base % isn't exactly a roaring endorsement of said theory.
2. Jason Heyward was drafted 14th that year, not 12th. Scouts (according to an SI article) knew he was sublime, but the reason he fell so low was that he was considered to have too MUCH plate discipline.
3. Perhaps we should err on the side of too much instead of too little, eh?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Soto's OBP last year was .321, yet I would consider him to have had good plate discipline as a result of a .103 IsoD. Do you disagree?
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<!--quoteo(post=104466:date=Jul 8 2010, 03:44 AM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jul 8 2010, 03:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]
I wasn't trying to be a douche.
1. Scarey was certainly implying that Vitter's plate discipline had improved, and I was merely pointing out that a .250 on-base % isn't exactly a roaring endorsement of said theory.
2. Jason Heyward was drafted 14th that year, not 12th. Scouts (according to an SI article) knew he was sublime, but the reason he fell so low was that he was considered to have too MUCH plate discipline.
3. Perhaps we should err on the side of too much instead of too little, eh?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
as always, I love ya kb, but you are comically unfair. I just looked up roughly 6 or 7 mock drafts for the 2007 draft. Exactly zero of them had Weiters or Heyward going before Vitters. The lowest they had Vitters going was 4. The highest was 2. The highest they had Heyward was 10.
Picking Vitters over Heyward, in 2007, when the GMs did not have the luxury of 3 years of pro ball experience to make their judgments, was the consensus pick. To look back on it now, and pretend that it's remotely honest to blame Wilken/Hendry for not knowing how those 2 players careers would look in 2010, is ridiculous.
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
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As you say, BT, I never claimed to be a Heyward man. As we all know, I was heavily in the Weiters camp (he had proved himself in college ball, was a complete stud hitter, had great plate discipline, and was a freaking<i> catcher</i>). Considering that everyone knew he was going to be drafted in the top 5, and the Cubs had a top 5 pick, I don't think it's unreasonable to say the Cubs should have considered him over Vitters.
But of all the articles I have ever read on the process of the MLB draft (and that includes Moneyball), the most enlightening one ever was the recent SI article about how the Braves snowed the other teams in 2007, and snuck the Heyward pick. It was a masterful move, similar to Moneyball, in which you see a team that has it's shit together trouncing the weaker teams that have their heads up their behinds.
An excerpt: <!--coloro:#0000FF--> <!--/coloro-->The Braves rated Heyward the best draft-eligible player in the country, ahead of more highly publicized prospects such as Vanderbilt pitcher David Price and high school third baseman Josh Vitters. Somehow, no other club rated Heyward that highly. How could that be? Baldwin smiled wryly when asked that question, paused a moment or two and finally said, "Ummm, what can I say and what can't I? ... Years from now I'll tell you."<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->
Finding prospects in modern day baseball
Thoughts?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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Its widely known that Heyward was only going to the Braves.
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<!--quoteo(post=104551:date=Jul 8 2010, 01:23 PM:name=Coach)-->QUOTE (Coach @ Jul 8 2010, 01:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Its widely known that Heyward was only going to the Braves.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Are you saying that he would have turned down a $5-10 million dollar offer from the Cubs to go to college? When has that happened recently?
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]
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<!--quoteo(post=104562:date=Jul 8 2010, 02:07 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jul 8 2010, 02:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=104551:date=Jul 8 2010, 01:23 PM:name=Coach)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coach @ Jul 8 2010, 01:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Its widely known that Heyward was only going to the Braves.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Are you saying that he would have turned down a $5-10 million dollar offer from the Cubs to go to college? When has that happened recently?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, he was entered as pick exempt which allowed the sliding slot pick from the Braves.
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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<!--quoteo(post=104565:date=Jul 8 2010, 02:14 PM:name=bz)-->QUOTE (bz @ Jul 8 2010, 02:14 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=104562:date=Jul 8 2010, 02:07 PM:name=KBwsb)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jul 8 2010, 02:07 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=104551:date=Jul 8 2010, 01:23 PM:name=Coach)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Coach @ Jul 8 2010, 01:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Its widely known that Heyward was only going to the Braves.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Are you saying that he would have turned down a $5-10 million dollar offer from the Cubs to go to college? When has that happened recently?
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, he was entered as pick exempt which allowed the sliding slot pick from the Braves.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
WTF?
That's absolutely NOT what happened, and the Marlins were almost certain to make the pick.
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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(are you just fucking with me? cuz that gibberish mumbo-jumbo was pretty clever, if you were. Touche.
It actually sounds kind of official).
There's nothing better than to realize that the good things about youth don't end with youth itself. It's a matter of realizing that life can be renewed every day you get out of bed without baggage. It's tough to get there, but it's better than the dark thoughts. -Lance
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<!--quoteo(post=104567:date=Jul 8 2010, 02:18 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jul 8 2010, 02:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->(are you just fucking with me? cuz that gibberish mumbo-jumbo was pretty clever, if you were. Touche.
It actually sounds kind of official).<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
[img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink.gif[/img] [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/laugh.gif[/img]
If Angelo had picked McClellin, I would have been expecting to hear by training camp that kid has stage 4 cancer, is actually 5'2" 142 lbs, is a chick who played in a 7 - 0 defensive scheme who only rotated in on downs which were 3 and 34 yds + so is not expecting to play a down in the NFL until the sex change is complete and she puts on another 100 lbs. + but this is Emery's first pick so he'll get a pass with a bit of questioning. - 1060Ivy
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<!--quoteo(post=104538:date=Jul 8 2010, 12:37 PM:name=KBwsb)-->QUOTE (KBwsb @ Jul 8 2010, 12:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->As you say, BT, I never claimed to be a Heyward man. As we all know, I was heavily in the Weiters camp (he had proved himself in college ball, was a complete stud hitter, had great plate discipline, and was a freaking<i> catcher</i>). Considering that everyone knew he was going to be drafted in the top 5, and the Cubs had a top 5 pick, I don't think it's unreasonable to say the Cubs should have considered him over Vitters.
But of all the articles I have ever read on the process of the MLB draft (and that includes Moneyball), the most enlightening one ever was the recent SI article about how the Braves snowed the other teams in 2007, and snuck the Heyward pick. It was a masterful move, similar to Moneyball, in which you see a team that has it's shit together trouncing the weaker teams that have their heads up their behinds.
An excerpt: <!--coloro:#0000FF--> <!--/coloro-->The Braves rated Heyward the best draft-eligible player in the country, ahead of more highly publicized prospects such as Vanderbilt pitcher David Price and high school third baseman Josh Vitters. Somehow, no other club rated Heyward that highly. How could that be? Baldwin smiled wryly when asked that question, paused a moment or two and finally said, "Ummm, what can I say and what can't I? ... Years from now I'll tell you."<!--colorc-->
<!--/colorc-->
Finding prospects in modern day baseball
Thoughts?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I have many thoughts, but I'll just share a few. For starters, I found that MLB pretty much wouldn't let the Cubs take Weiters, as he was asking for too much money, and the Cubs ownership was in question at the time. So MLB told them to take someone they could sign for slot. I don't know if that is enough to dismantle your temple to Weiters (since the inauspicious start to his career clearly hasn't), but it's something to think about, assuming it's true. This is also ignoring the fact that most mock drafts had Vitters over Weiters.
I don't have time right now to that whole article, but I'm not sure what the point is anyway. Are you suggesting the Braves did a good job by getting Heyward? You won't get an argument from me there. But seeing as how Heyward was picked 14th, that means at least 13 other clubs failed to see he was an awesome talent, which hardly seems very damning for the Cubs in particular. If everyone but the Braves missed on this guy, then it shows how good the Braves scouting is, it doesn't show how shitty the Cubs scouting is.
Every year on this board I watch the vast majority of posters shit their pants when the Cubs don't pick a guy Baseball America has ranked highly with their first pick. In the case of Vitters, the Cubs picked EXACTLY who they were "supposed" to pick, and you are now retroactively trying to paint that pick as an obvious screw up. Despite the fact that he is all of 20 years old. And despite the fact that the guy you have spent the better part of 3 years bitching we should have taken now sports an OPS of 717. Since he has started so slowly, you are now switching gears to ANOTHER guy that the Cubs were fools to pass up, since now THAT guy is the flavor of the month.
I have no idea how Vitter's career will end (or Weiters or Heyward for that matter), but if he ends up being substantially worse than the guys picked after him, I will chalk it up to the difficulties of projecting the futures of major league baseball players, and nothing else. Because it happens ALL THE TIME.
I wish that I believed in Fate. I wish I didn't sleep so late. I used to be carried in the arms of cheerleaders.
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I'm not even close to the point of giving up on Vitters. If one year from now, he's still putting up similar numbers, then I will start to worry. Also, look a little closer at his production splits year-to-year, and the trend has been that Vitters shits himself after being promoted, but then adjusts nicely the next year and puts up excellent numbers. That is at least encouraging, to me anyway.
Very few prospects dominate in the minors from day 1 on right through a promotion to the bigs, so it isn't panic time just yet. Plus, predicting how a prospect's minor league or college stats project out to a major league career is like trying to time the stock market. Even the so-called geniuses end up being wrong most of the time.
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<!--quoteo(post=104606:date=Jul 9 2010, 07:48 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Jul 9 2010, 07:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I'm not even close to the point of giving up on Vitters. If one year from now, he's still putting up similar numbers, then I will start to worry. Also, look a little closer at his production splits year-to-year, and the trend has been that Vitters shits himself after being promoted, but then adjusts nicely the next year and puts up excellent numbers. That is at least encouraging, to me anyway.
Very few prospects dominate in the minors from day 1 on right through a promotion to the bigs, so it isn't panic time just yet. Plus, predicting how a prospect's minor league or college stats project out to a major league career is like trying to time the stock market. Even the so-called geniuses end up being wrong most of the time.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
What Rok said...
In 2008, he was the best hitter for Boise if not the whole league - .328/.365/.498/.863, gets promoted to Peoria, plays four games
<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Spent bulk of season with Class A Short-Season Boise in Northwest League. Batted .328 with 38 runs, 37 RBIs and 25 doubles...Led the league in doubles, was second in extra-base hits (32), third in total bases (129) and hits (85) and fourth in slugging (.498) and average...Amassed a 25-game hitting streak between July 12-Aug. 19 and a 15-game hitting streak between June 18-July 3.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
10/02/2008 Baseball America Short-Season All-Star
08/28/2008 NOR Post-Season All-Star
In 2009, he was the best hitter for Peoria - .316/.351/.535/.886, gets promoted to Daytona... slumps, adjusts, recovers
12/09/2009 AFL All-Prospect Team
11/25/2009 Topps Class A All-Star
11/02/2009 AFL Rising Stars
08/25/2009 MID Post-Season All-Star
07/12/2009 Futures Game Selection
06/23/2009 MID Mid-Season All-Star
05/25/2009 MID Player of the Week
In 2010, starts the season at Daytona injured and was slumping. Recovers and tears it up for a respectable .291/.350/.445/.795. Gets promoted.
When he was drafted, he was rated the 'best natural swing' of any batter in the draft.
Write him off yet KB? He still is a top 3 prospect in the system, with Jackson now probably rated higher as a positional prospect, which could change still.
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<b> July 8:</b>
![[Image: t451_logo_sm.gif]](http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/logo/t451_logo_sm.gif)
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
New Orleans (41-43) 1 6 1
Iowa (46-40) 4 10 1
WP: Casey Coleman (8-7)
LP: Tom Mastny (2-1)
SV: Blake Parker (2)
Coleman: GS, 7.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER (4.09 ERA), 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K
James Adduci: 2-4 (.270), 2 RBI (19)
Darwin Barney: 2-4 (.289), RBI (32)<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
![[Image: t553_logo_sm.gif]](http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/logo/t553_logo_sm.gif)
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
Tennessee (8-9) 0 4 1
Jacksonville (9-8) 5 11 0
WP: Tom Koehler (11-2)
LP: Rafael Dolis (0-2)
HR: JAX - Brandon Tripp (7)
Dolis: GS, 4.2 IP, 5 R, 3 ER (3.95 ERA), 9 H, 4 BB, 6 K
Jake Muyco: 2.1 IP, 0 R, 0 ER (4.04 ERA), 2 H, 0 BB, 3 K, HBP
Brett Jackson: 2-4 (.356), 2B (4), K, CS (1)<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
![[Image: t450_logo_sm.gif]](http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/logo/t450_logo_sm.gif)
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
Tampa (9-3) 5 8 0
Daytona (9-4) 7 12 3
WP: Alberto Cabrera (3-2)
LP: Shaeffer Hall (4-1)
SV: Oswaldo Martinez (4)
HR: DAY - Junior Lake (2), Kyler Burke (5)
Cabrera: GS, 6.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER (3.40 ERA), 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K
Burke: 2-4 (.212), 2B (19), RBI (37), R, 2 K
DJ LeMahieu: 4-4 (.291), 3B (5), RBI (52), R<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
![[Image: t443_logo_sm.gif]](http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/logo/t443_logo_sm.gif)
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
Kane County (7-7) 8 6 3
Peoria (4-9) 7 8 1
WP: Jose Pina (2-1)
LP: Jordan Latham (0-2)
SV: Jose Guzman (9)
Su-Min Jung: GS, 5.0 IP, 4 R, 3 ER (3.86 ERA), 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K
D.J. Fitzgerald: 2-4 (.289), 2B (8), R, BB, K, PO
Greg Rohan: 2-5 (.302), 2 RBI (53), K<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
![[Image: 50x50_t480.png]](http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/images/logo/50x50_t480.png)
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
Eugene (8-12) 4 13 1
Boise (11-9) 5 8 3
WP: Eric Jokisch (2-0)
LP: Matthew Branham (0-2)
SV: Aaron Kurcz (1)
HR: EUG - Jedd Gyorko (5), Wesley Cunningham (2)
Marcos Perez: GS, 4.2 IP, 3 R, 1 ER (1.89 ERA), 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K, WP
Jesus Morelli: 3-3 (.260), 2 2B (6), RBI (5), 2 R, BB
Alvaro Ramirez: 2-3 (.299), 2B (4), 3B (2), RBI (9), R, BB, E (3)<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
![[Image: l121_logo_lg.gif]](http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/images/leagueheaderlogos/l121_logo_lg.gif)
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
Cubs (7-7) 6 13 2
Dodgers (9-6) 8 10 2 (F/10)
WP: Yimy Rodriguez (1-0)
LP: Jesse Ginley (0-1)
HR: LAD - Bladimir Franco (1)
Austin Reed: GS, 2.0 IP, 0 R, 0 ER (0.00 ERA), 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K
Jadel Mendez: 3.0 IP, 0 R, 0 ER (4.91 ERA), 3 H, 0 BB, 3 K, HBP
Vismeldy Bieneme: 3-5 (.385), RBI (2), R, K<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
![[Image: l130_logo_lg.gif]](http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/images/leagueheaderlogos/l130_logo_lg.gif)
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
Cubs 1 (24-9) 10 12 4
Padres (10-19) 9 17 1
WP: Victor Salazar (3-0)
LP: Rudi Andujar (0-3)
SV: Augusto Colinas (2)
HR: SD - Alvaro Aristy (1)
Luis Villalba: GS, 4.0 IP, 3 R, 2 ER (2.28 ERA), 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K, WP, BK, 2 E (3)
Delbis Arcila: 3-3 (.300), 2B (6), RBI (11), 3 R, 2 BB
Oliver Zapata: 2-5 (.272), 3B (1), 5 RBI (25), R, BB, K<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
<!--c1-->CODE<!--ec1--> R H E
Yankees 1 (22-9) 12 11 2
Cubs 2 (7-26) 3 7 6
WP: Dawerd Cruz (2-2)
LP: Ramon Reyes (0-1)
Reyes: GS, 4.0 IP, 4 R, 2 ER (14.40 ERA), 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K, 7 WP
Frammi Cabrera: 2-4 (.252), RBI (8)
Gregori Gonzalez: 1-3 (.299), R, 2 K, HBP<!--c2--><!--ec2-->
This is not some silly theory that's unsupported and deserves being mocked by photos of Xena. ![[Image: ITgoyeg.png]](http://i.imgur.com/ITgoyeg.png)
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For a big league club that has trouble scoring runs, we could use a guy like Adduci and his 919 RBIs.
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