Z to the Pen

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=92026:date=Apr 22 2010, 08:24 AM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Apr 22 2010, 08:24 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I was listening to the Score this morning and a caller speculated that this move may be a way for the cubs to get Zambrano to wave his no-trade clause so that they can trade him. Thoughts?<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Yes. My thoughts are the Score is wrong. They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him. So how would that get Zambrano to waive his no trade clause?


I think Rob Neyer is pretty close to where I am on this whole thing.

Zambrano to pen


<!--quoteo-->QUOTE <!--quotec-->Speaking of virtually nil, that's about where I would peg the chance of Zambrano making fewer starts than Tom Gorzelanny this season.

...

But there's room for both of them in the rotation. At the moment, Big Z's ERA is 7.45; his rotation mates go 0.69 (Silva), 1.93 (Gorzelanny), Randy Wells (2.45) and Ryan Dempster (3.15). It's hard to sit a guy with a 0.69 ERA, or even a guy with a 1.93 ERA. Those numbers will change, though, and probably quite soon. When they get where they're supposed to, Zambrano will take his rightful place in the rotation<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

<!--quoteo(post=92033:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
My problem with this line of thinking is that it is nigh-universally accepted that a move to the pen is a demotion, whether it's cleared through the pitcher or not. It's fairly understood that Reliever < Starter (see Samardzija, Jeff).

Earlier you suggested that if this "works," then no one will be complaining. What does "works" mean here? That all parties pitch well? We still will be underutilizing Zambrano. Of course, it could also mean that if we are happy with him pitching from the pen, that are tacitly recognizing that he is no longer starter-worthy. And I see that as cause for dismay as well.

[jstraw]

<!--quoteo(post=92052:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92033:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
My problem with this line of thinking is that it is nigh-universally accepted that a move to the pen is a demotion, whether it's cleared through the pitcher or not. It's fairly understood that Reliever < Starter (see Samardzija, Jeff).

Earlier you suggested that if this "works," then no one will be complaining. What does "works" mean here? That all parties pitch well? We still will be underutilizing Zambrano. Of course, it could also mean that if we are happy with him pitching from the pen, that are tacitly recognizing that he is no longer starter-worthy. And I see that as cause for dismay as well.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I dunno. I really can see a scenario where Lou goes to Z and says "I'm desperate here...I need someone to stop the bleeding and you can do this. Will you help me?"

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=92052:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92033:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
My problem with this line of thinking is that it is nigh-universally accepted that a move to the pen is a demotion, whether it's cleared through the pitcher or not. It's fairly understood that Reliever < Starter (see Samardzija, Jeff).

Earlier you suggested that if this "works," then no one will be complaining. What does "works" mean here? That all parties pitch well? We still will be underutilizing Zambrano. Of course, it could also mean that if we are happy with him pitching from the pen, that are tacitly recognizing that he is no longer starter-worthy. And I see that as cause for dismay as well.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Even if Z were named our new closer it would still be a demotion. He has the longest and best track record of any of our SPs and is still in his prime. In 30+ starts Z would have something like a 75% influence on the outcomes of those games. Now even if he pitches 50-60 times as a reliever, he <b>might</b> directly influence 10% of the outcomes of those games if you assume one inning or so of work. It just doesn't add up. Desperation move plain and simple. Lou is a retard, and the rest of the organization should feel shame and embarrassment for allowing this to happen.

[dk123]

<!--quoteo(post=92053:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM:name=jstraw)-->QUOTE (jstraw @ Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92052:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92033:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
My problem with this line of thinking is that it is nigh-universally accepted that a move to the pen is a demotion, whether it's cleared through the pitcher or not. It's fairly understood that Reliever < Starter (see Samardzija, Jeff).

Earlier you suggested that if this "works," then no one will be complaining. What does "works" mean here? That all parties pitch well? We still will be underutilizing Zambrano. Of course, it could also mean that if we are happy with him pitching from the pen, that are tacitly recognizing that he is no longer starter-worthy. And I see that as cause for dismay as well.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I dunno. I really can see a scenario where Lou goes to Z and says "I'm desperate here...I need someone to stop the bleeding and you can do this. Will you help me?"
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IF that is how it happened, with the understanding it would be a short term thing, then I don't think it's so bad...but that's a big if.

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

<!--quoteo(post=92058:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:06 PM:name=dk123)-->QUOTE (dk123 @ Apr 22 2010, 12:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92053:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92052:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92033:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
My problem with this line of thinking is that it is nigh-universally accepted that a move to the pen is a demotion, whether it's cleared through the pitcher or not. It's fairly understood that Reliever < Starter (see Samardzija, Jeff).

Earlier you suggested that if this "works," then no one will be complaining. What does "works" mean here? That all parties pitch well? We still will be underutilizing Zambrano. Of course, it could also mean that if we are happy with him pitching from the pen, that are tacitly recognizing that he is no longer starter-worthy. And I see that as cause for dismay as well.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I dunno. I really can see a scenario where Lou goes to Z and says "I'm desperate here...I need someone to stop the bleeding and you can do this. Will you help me?"
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IF that is how it happened, with the understanding it would be a short term thing, then I don't think it's so bad...but that's a big if.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Even so, what its the anticipated end result? If Z pitches lights out, does Lou expect all the other relievers to watch him and come to some epiphany of how things are done? I suppose I could concede that this wouldn't be such a dunderhead move if there is a scenario where a trade is in the works that would bring a strong 8th inning guy over in the next couple of weeks. Aside from that, I don't see what temporarily moving Z to the pen accomplished, other than a perceived demotion.

[Scarey]

My assumption is Lou wants to have one reliable right hander until he can find another one that's reliable. He'll probably be giving Caridad and Berg opportunities and maybe even some of the guys in the minors and just wants to make sure he has a solid option until they either get one via trade or find one from within.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=92060:date=Apr 22 2010, 11:14 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 11:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92058:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:06 PM:name=dk123)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (dk123 @ Apr 22 2010, 12:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92053:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92052:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92033:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
My problem with this line of thinking is that it is nigh-universally accepted that a move to the pen is a demotion, whether it's cleared through the pitcher or not. It's fairly understood that Reliever < Starter (see Samardzija, Jeff).

Earlier you suggested that if this "works," then no one will be complaining. What does "works" mean here? That all parties pitch well? We still will be underutilizing Zambrano. Of course, it could also mean that if we are happy with him pitching from the pen, that are tacitly recognizing that he is no longer starter-worthy. And I see that as cause for dismay as well.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I dunno. I really can see a scenario where Lou goes to Z and says "I'm desperate here...I need someone to stop the bleeding and you can do this. Will you help me?"
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IF that is how it happened, with the understanding it would be a short term thing, then I don't think it's so bad...but that's a big if.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Even so, what its the anticipated end result? If Z pitches lights out, does Lou expect all the other relievers to watch him and come to some epiphany of how things are done? I suppose I could concede that this <b>wouldn't be such a dunderhead move if there is a scenario where a trade is in the works that would bring a strong 8th inning guy over in the next couple of weeks. </b>Aside from that, I don't see what temporarily moving Z to the pen accomplished, other than a perceived demotion.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That's EXACTLY what Zambrano said. He is supposed to pitch in the 8th inning until they find someone else who can do it. The Cubs would like to trade for an 8th inning guy, but suddenly we are faced with the conundrum that Zambrano is now completely useless as an 8th inning pitcher, but no one in the league wants to give up an 8th inning pitcher because they are too valuable. Not sure how that makes any sense, but that's where we are.

for fucks sake you guys, I fucking promise you Zambrano WILL NOT pitch 60 innings out of the bullpen. Literally the only way that happens is if Zambrano is lights out, the rotation (EVERY single one of them) pitches lights out, and the Cubs win an assload of games. If this happens, why would you guys give a flying shit about the "value" of Zambrano? If this doesn't happen, HE'LL BE A STARTER AGAIN. If Zambrano is in the bullpen, then Gorz and Silva are pitching well. If they don't, he will go back into the rotation.

this is not an ideal move. This is not the move I would make. But you guys are completely overreacting.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=92065:date=Apr 22 2010, 11:53 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 11:53 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92060:date=Apr 22 2010, 11:14 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 11:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92058:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:06 PM:name=dk123)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (dk123 @ Apr 22 2010, 12:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92053:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM:name=jstraw)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (jstraw @ Apr 22 2010, 10:48 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92052:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 10:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92033:date=Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Apr 22 2010, 10:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They ASKED Zambrano to move to the pen, they didn't demote him.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
My problem with this line of thinking is that it is nigh-universally accepted that a move to the pen is a demotion, whether it's cleared through the pitcher or not. It's fairly understood that Reliever < Starter (see Samardzija, Jeff).

Earlier you suggested that if this "works," then no one will be complaining. What does "works" mean here? That all parties pitch well? We still will be underutilizing Zambrano. Of course, it could also mean that if we are happy with him pitching from the pen, that are tacitly recognizing that he is no longer starter-worthy. And I see that as cause for dismay as well.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


I dunno. I really can see a scenario where Lou goes to Z and says "I'm desperate here...I need someone to stop the bleeding and you can do this. Will you help me?"
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
IF that is how it happened, with the understanding it would be a short term thing, then I don't think it's so bad...but that's a big if.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Even so, what its the anticipated end result? If Z pitches lights out, does Lou expect all the other relievers to watch him and come to some epiphany of how things are done? I suppose I could concede that this <b>wouldn't be such a dunderhead move if there is a scenario where a trade is in the works that would bring a strong 8th inning guy over in the next couple of weeks. </b>Aside from that, I don't see what temporarily moving Z to the pen accomplished, other than a perceived demotion.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

That's EXACTLY what Zambrano said. He is supposed to pitch in the 8th inning until they find someone else who can do it. The Cubs would like to trade for an 8th inning guy, but suddenly we are faced with the conundrum that Zambrano is now completely useless as an 8th inning pitcher, but no one in the league wants to give up an 8th inning pitcher because they are too valuable. Not sure how that makes any sense, but that's where we are.

for fucks sake you guys, I fucking promise you Zambrano WILL NOT pitch 60 innings out of the bullpen. Literally the only way that happens is if Zambrano is lights out, the rotation (EVERY single one of them) pitches lights out, and the Cubs win an assload of games. If this happens, why would you guys give a flying shit about the "value" of Zambrano? If this doesn't happen, HE'LL BE A STARTER AGAIN. If Zambrano is in the bullpen, then Gorz and Silva are pitching well. If they don't, he will go back into the rotation.

this is not an ideal move. This is not the move I would make. But you guys are completely overreacting.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So...how many bad starts from Gorz and/or Silva will it take to move Z back into the rotation? How long before they start pitching like they have for their entire careers? And once they do, how long of a leash will they have before Lou realizes that Zambrano is better than either of them (and has been for nearly a decade) and should, once again, get more innings than them?

There won't be a magical light that goes on in the dugout that warns Lou that Silva and Gorz are approaching the moment when they turn back into pumpkins.

[leonardsipes]

The rotation is not being downgraded. Lily is not worse than Zambrano. The bullpen is upgraded. The bullpen has been a problem.

[VanSlawAndCottoCheese]

<!--quoteo(post=92068:date=Apr 22 2010, 01:00 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Apr 22 2010, 01:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The rotation is not being downgraded. Lily is not worse than Zambrano. The bullpen is upgraded. The bullpen has been a problem.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Perhaps we should move Lilly and Dempster into the bullpen to REALLY upgrade it.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=92068:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:00 PM:name=leonardsipes)-->QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Apr 22 2010, 12:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The rotation is not being downgraded.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes it is. The rotation is being downgraded by keeping Silva and Gorz in it and removing Zambrano.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=92069:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:02 PM:name=VanSlawAndCottoCheese)-->QUOTE (VanSlawAndCottoCheese @ Apr 22 2010, 12:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92068:date=Apr 22 2010, 01:00 PM:name=leonardsipes)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Apr 22 2010, 01:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The rotation is not being downgraded. Lily is not worse than Zambrano. The bullpen is upgraded. The bullpen has been a problem.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Perhaps we should move Lilly and Dempster into the bullpen to REALLY upgrade it.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Right. And then we could move Lee and Ramirez to the bench so we have better pinch hitters.

[Scarey]

<!--quoteo(post=92070:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:02 PM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 22 2010, 12:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92068:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:00 PM:name=leonardsipes)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Apr 22 2010, 12:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The rotation is not being downgraded.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes it is. The rotation is being downgraded by keeping Silva and Gorz in it and removing Zambrano.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I think Lenny meant it in so far THIS year, the rotation has pitched just fine and in terms of THIS year, the rotation is now being downgraded. He's right actually.

I'm not worried about the consequences because like BT, I think the consequences won't be severe. However, I'm worried that Lou has gone to desperation moves.

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=92072:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:05 PM:name=Scarey)-->QUOTE (Scarey @ Apr 22 2010, 12:05 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92070:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:02 PM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Apr 22 2010, 12:02 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=92068:date=Apr 22 2010, 12:00 PM:name=leonardsipes)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (leonardsipes @ Apr 22 2010, 12:00 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The rotation is not being downgraded.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yes it is. The rotation is being downgraded by keeping Silva and Gorz in it and removing Zambrano.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

I think Lenny meant it in so far THIS year, the rotation has pitched just fine and in terms of THIS year, the rotation is now being downgraded. He's right actually.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Right. So, despite years of evidence to the contrary, Silva and Gorz will continue to pitch like Walter Johnson and Z will continue to pitch like Jason Marquis. I get it now.