<!--quoteo(post=114796:date=Sep 22 2010, 12:23 PM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 12:23 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114780:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:51 AM:name=rok)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (rok @ Sep 22 2010, 11:51 AM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114777:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->right, but his walk rate seems much worse this year, even after this late great stretch, than it has been in the past. For instance, if he has 2 more outings identical to last nights, he will have walked the exact same amount of guys he walked in 2008, but he will have done it in 60 fewer innings. That's a massive difference.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
His walk rate is definitely high, but early on in the season, he was giving up more hits than usual, not BB. That's why his WHIP jumped into the 1.5-2 range for much of the season. Only recently did he start allowing fewer hits (and walking batters at a higher clip simultaneously). Bottom line is, it hasn't been pretty, but Z has always been an effective pitcher. Some pitchers are like that (Marmol is another example) where their peripherals can tell many stories, but they still manage to get the job done. It's hard to explain, but numbers do lie at times.
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But Marmol is the exception that proves the rule. Yes, Marmol gives up quite a few walks per 9 innings, but that is more than offset by his freakish other numbers. He is currently letting up less than 5 hits per 9 innings, so his WHIP for the year is a manageable 1.22. Even more helpful is his strikeouts. Randy Johnson is the current leader in MLB history for K/9 innings. He struck out 10.6 guys every 9 innings. Carlos Marmol is striking out 15.6 batters per 9 innings. He is off the charts. In fact, since he has moved to the bullpen, he has never finished with a k/9 ratio under 11.3. That is why he can afford all of those walks. Because everyone he doesn't walk is striking out.
That being said, it's not just that he is letting up too many hits. As BZ pointed out, that can be explained by an unusually large BABIP. With any luck, that will come down as his BABIP comes down. But not only is Zambrano's 2010 H/9 the worst in his career (full season), but his BB/9 are his worst, and his BB/K are his worst.
His last 6 starts give me hope that he has turned this around, but again, if he goes into next year and continues to walk guys at this clip, without a decrease in BABIP or an increase in k/9, he isn't going to be as successful as we need him to be.
by which of course I mean we should give him away so he can win 16 games with another team.
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Well, that was sort of my point. Somewhere in those numbers is an outlier (most likely his H/9, as his BB/9 isn't dramatically greater than his 5 year average), that should correct itself next season if he's given a full year to straighten himself out. This is the problem with looking at slices of data over partial seasons, especially considering all of the drama that has occurred. It's impossible to know how Z would have performed over 30 starts, but I'm inclined to believe that while he wouldn't have been great, he still would be a lot closer to his career averages than what he showed earlier in the season.
![[Image: ITgoyeg.png]](http://i.imgur.com/ITgoyeg.png)