Zambrano

[rok]

I still love Z.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=114738:date=Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I know that darn WHIP was off last night, but our guy held a team fighting for a playoff spot to zero runs in 6 innings.

Zambrano is good. Always has been.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

You know, if I didn't know any better, I'd think that just might have been a swipe at me. Maybe.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=114756:date=Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114738:date=Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I know that darn WHIP was off last night, but our guy held a team fighting for a playoff spot to zero runs in 6 innings.

Zambrano is good. Always has been.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

You know, if I didn't know any better, I'd think that just might have been a swipe at me. Maybe.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
It isn't always about you. [img]style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin.gif[/img]

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=114756:date=Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114738:date=Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I know that darn WHIP was off last night, but our guy held a team fighting for a playoff spot to zero runs in 6 innings.

Zambrano is good. Always has been.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

You know, if I didn't know any better, I'd think that just might have been a swipe at me. Maybe.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


A subtle swipe. I prefer to be on your side as much as possible. Unfortunately when it comes to Zambrano and the way he was handled, it's impossible to be on your side.

But I'm smart enough not to take a direct swipe at you.

[willis]

Regardless, the dude is dealing and it just sucks that the offense couldn't get even a run last night. 2 hits? I saw this movie before, it was called April-July, 2010.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=114761:date=Sep 22 2010, 09:44 AM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 09:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114756:date=Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114738:date=Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I know that darn WHIP was off last night, but our guy held a team fighting for a playoff spot to zero runs in 6 innings.

Zambrano is good. Always has been.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

You know, if I didn't know any better, I'd think that just might have been a swipe at me. Maybe.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


A subtle swipe. I prefer to be on your side as much as possible. Unfortunately when it comes to Zambrano and the way he was handled, it's impossible to be on your side.

But I'm smart enough not to take a direct swipe at you.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Hey, I'll fully admit he has been great for the last 6 starts. His WHIP during that time is also essentially 1.00, which is amazing, and 180 degrees better than it was during his first 12 starts this year, and most of his starts last year. When I initially made my point about his WHIP, he was only 2 starts into this run. And while his earned runs allowed have been pretty consistent since he came back from the loony bin, the quality of his starts has been markedly different in these last 6 starts.

5 walks in 6 innings is troubling, however, he can get away with it if he continues to only allow 3 hits and strike out 8. If the hits go up, or the K's come down, walking almost a man an inning will get him into a lot of trouble. If they don't, he will be great.

[bz]

<!--quoteo(post=114769:date=Sep 22 2010, 10:31 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 10:31 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114761:date=Sep 22 2010, 09:44 AM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 09:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114756:date=Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 08:30 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114738:date=Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM:name=veryzer)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 05:55 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I know that darn WHIP was off last night, but our guy held a team fighting for a playoff spot to zero runs in 6 innings.

Zambrano is good. Always has been.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->

You know, if I didn't know any better, I'd think that just might have been a swipe at me. Maybe.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->


A subtle swipe. I prefer to be on your side as much as possible. Unfortunately when it comes to Zambrano and the way he was handled, it's impossible to be on your side.

But I'm smart enough not to take a direct swipe at you.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

Hey, I'll fully admit he has been great for the last 6 starts. His WHIP during that time is also essentially 1.00, which is amazing, and 180 degrees better than it was during his first 12 starts this year, and most of his starts last year. When I initially made my point about his WHIP, he was only 2 starts into this run. And while his earned runs allowed have been pretty consistent since he came back from the loony bin, the quality of his starts has been markedly different in these last 6 starts.

5 walks in 6 innings is troubling, however, he can get away with it if he continues to only allow 3 hits and strike out 8. If the hits go up, or the K's come down, walking almost a man an inning will get him into a lot of trouble. If they don't, he will be great.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's how his career has always been. He relies heavily on strike outs and late movement on his sinker (when he throws it) to get weak hits. He misses his spots trying to strike people out. It's frustrating as fuck from our standpoint, but he, simply, doesn't care about walking people because he can strike out people or get a weak flyball or double-play ground out. I don't know if there's any validity to this, but it always seems that when he does lose a game it's never by giving up 1 run in 4 different innings, but 4 runs in one inning. His high risk style of pitching either leads to a good win or a devastating loss.

I do remember him talking a few years back about trying to learn to pitch (maybe he was mimicking Maddux), and his strike out rate was lower at that point in the season because of that. Because of the way he gives up walks, pitching to contact is a huge mistake for him and probably has a lot to do with the huge swings in effectiveness he's had over the last couple seasons. Maybe he's back to pitching how he did when he was younger--try to strike everyone out and if they do make contact it's not going anywhere--and that's the difference we are seeing now.

[BT]

right, but his walk rate seems much worse this year, even after this late great stretch, than it has been in the past. For instance, if he has 2 more outings identical to last nights, he will have walked the exact same amount of guys he walked in 2008, but he will have done it in 60 fewer innings. That's a massive difference.

[Butcher]

I can't wait until we trade Zambrano and he wins 16 games a season for the next three or four years for some other team.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=114777:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->right, but his walk rate seems much worse this year, even after this late great stretch, than it has been in the past. For instance, if he has 2 more outings identical to last nights, he will have walked the exact same amount of guys he walked in 2008, but he will have done it in 60 fewer innings. That's a massive difference.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
His walk rate is definitely high, but early on in the season, he was giving up more hits than usual, not BB. That's why his WHIP jumped into the 1.5-2 range for much of the season. Only recently did he start allowing fewer hits (and walking batters at a higher clip simultaneously). Bottom line is, it hasn't been pretty, but Z has always been an effective pitcher. Some pitchers are like that (Marmol is another example) where their peripherals can tell many stories, but they still manage to get the job done. It's hard to explain, but numbers do lie at times.

[bz]

<!--quoteo(post=114777:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM:name=BT)-->QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->right, but his walk rate seems much worse this year, even after this late great stretch, than it has been in the past. For instance, if he has 2 more outings identical to last nights, he will have walked the exact same amount of guys he walked in 2008, but he will have done it in 60 fewer innings. That's a massive difference.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Oh totally. Interestingly, his BABIP against this season is .322, which, ironically, could indicate that he's actually been unlucky this season despite the fact that his whip and walk rate is huge and his era doesn't reflect his whip or walk rate. His career babip is like .286. He's increasingly becoming more confusing.

[veryzer]

<!--quoteo(post=114779:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:47 AM:name=Butcher)-->QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 22 2010, 11:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I can't wait until we trade Zambrano and he wins 16 games a season for the next three or four years for some other team.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


The Cubs would be retarded to trade him.

This what I'd like to see happen:

1. let Dempster open the season
2. if we pick up another big name pitcher, let him pitch game two. Make Zambrano your #3.
3. if and when Zambrano struggles early on, let him work his way out of it, like he's done in the past
4. never, ever move him to the bullpen
5. let him be psycho. Quit trying to squash that aspect of his personality. He is what he is. Let him be that way.
6. realize he isn't an ace, but that he's still a pretty good pitcher that can easily give you 16+ wins a year, if he's handled right

[Butcher]

<!--quoteo(post=114791:date=Sep 22 2010, 12:13 PM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Sep 22 2010, 12:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114779:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:47 AM:name=Butcher)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Butcher @ Sep 22 2010, 11:47 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->I can't wait until we trade Zambrano and he wins 16 games a season for the next three or four years for some other team.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->


The Cubs would be retarded to trade him.

This what I'd like to see happen:

1. let Dempster open the season
2. if we pick up another big name pitcher, let him pitch game two. Make Zambrano your #3.
3. if and when Zambrano struggles early on, let him work his way out of it, like he's done in the past
4. never, ever move him to the bullpen
5. let him be psycho. Quit trying to squash that aspect of his personality. He is what he is. Let him be that way.
6. realize he isn't an ace, but that he's still a pretty good pitcher that can easily give you 16+ wins a year, if he's handled right
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'd be fine with that. But I have a feeling that Hendry will try to deal him.

[willis]

Is it safe to think that he will definitely be part of this team next year? I am thinking so, and from what I have seen the last few weeks, I am good with that. A 180 degree turn from where I felt after the Cell meltdown.

I do agree Dempster could be opening day starter, with Z slotted at 3 or 4. Hopefully there is another arm added that's worth a shit and you have a pretty respectable rotation.

Z's been effectively wild. And I think that suits him just fine.

[BT]

<!--quoteo(post=114780:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:51 AM:name=rok)-->QUOTE (rok @ Sep 22 2010, 11:51 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec--><!--quoteo(post=114777:date=Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM:name=BT)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BT @ Sep 22 2010, 11:40 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->right, but his walk rate seems much worse this year, even after this late great stretch, than it has been in the past. For instance, if he has 2 more outings identical to last nights, he will have walked the exact same amount of guys he walked in 2008, but he will have done it in 60 fewer innings. That's a massive difference.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
His walk rate is definitely high, but early on in the season, he was giving up more hits than usual, not BB. That's why his WHIP jumped into the 1.5-2 range for much of the season. Only recently did he start allowing fewer hits (and walking batters at a higher clip simultaneously). Bottom line is, it hasn't been pretty, but Z has always been an effective pitcher. Some pitchers are like that (Marmol is another example) where their peripherals can tell many stories, but they still manage to get the job done. It's hard to explain, but numbers do lie at times.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->

But Marmol is the exception that proves the rule. Yes, Marmol gives up quite a few walks per 9 innings, but that is more than offset by his freakish other numbers. He is currently letting up less than 5 hits per 9 innings, so his WHIP for the year is a manageable 1.22. Even more helpful is his strikeouts. Randy Johnson is the current leader in MLB history for K/9 innings. He struck out 10.6 guys every 9 innings. Carlos Marmol is striking out 15.6 batters per 9 innings. He is off the charts. In fact, since he has moved to the bullpen, he has never finished with a k/9 ratio under 11.3. That is why he can afford all of those walks. Because everyone he doesn't walk is striking out.

That being said, it's not just that he is letting up too many hits. As BZ pointed out, that can be explained by an unusually large BABIP. With any luck, that will come down as his BABIP comes down. But not only is Zambrano's 2010 H/9 the worst in his career (full season), but his BB/9 are his worst, and his BB/K are his worst.

His last 6 starts give me hope that he has turned this around, but again, if he goes into next year and continues to walk guys at this clip, without a decrease in BABIP or an increase in k/9, he isn't going to be as successful as we need him to be.

by which of course I mean we should give him away so he can win 16 games with another team.