Stats-and-that

[dac757]

Hey guys,

Now, being a baseball-rookie, there are parts of the game that I really know sod all about, but would quite like to. Being an actuary by trade, and baseball being the stats-heavy game it is, obviously stats are one area where I want to know more.

Now, I know the obvious ones like ERA (I know it sounds stupid, but that one took me bloody ages to work out without asking anyone), OBP, RISP and WHIP (which personally I quite like, but what do I know?).

Now, I know there are other, better (?) stats out there, for example I think I've read something on here about ERA+ or something, I have no bloomin' idea what that is. Now, instead of going onto Wikipedia or whatever and looking, I think I'd much rather hear from you guys what you think some interesting/good stats are for me to know about.

I also get the feeling that some people prefer certain stats to others, so will give you a chance to put your ideas across to others I guess! I'm guessing some stats are only really useable/worthwhile in certain situations, and comparing stats of certain players to others of a different 'type' is kinda pointless, but as a geeky actuary, I'd love to delve a bit deeper and put my mind to comparing all the different ones and see the correlations and whatever.

So, yeh....fire away! (Seriously, any stat, no matter how simple, I'm an idiot).

[Scarey]

Because a pitcher's ERA can be greatly effected by the ballparks they play in or the league they play in (American league pitchers often have higher ERAs because of the DH), ERA+ was invented. I don't understand how it is actually calculated, but it is basically a way of standardizing ERA to account for variables such as ballparks. When you look at ERA+, 100 is middle of the road. Anything more than 100 is above average and anything below is sub par. It's a quick easy way of evaluating a pitcher.

Some stats I personally like are BABiP (Batting Average of Balls in Play) and line drive %(self explanatory I hope).

BABiP usually shows you if a hitter is getting unusually lucky. League average for BABiP is usually about .300. Anything more than that and the player is usually getting seeing eye singles and bloop hits. Below .300 and the player is probably hitting line drive rockets right at defenders. BABiP is a very flawed statistic though and doesn't take into account players like Derek Jeter. Jeter for his career has an unusually high BABiP. He isn't a constantly lucky player though, he just is very good and directing the ball and hitting line drives. That's why I also use line drive % along with BABiP.

Stat heads will evaluate the trajectory of all balls put into play. It can be either a ground ball, a fly ball, or a line drive. Line drives, of course, have an extremely high probability of landing for a hit compared to fly balls and ground balls. Therefor, hitters should aspire to have a high line drive %. 17 or 18% is considered about average for line drive %. 21% is considered above average.

When you pair these two stats together, they can be very telling. Take Geovany Soto last year. If you look at his slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) he did not have a very good season. However, his BABiP shows when he put the ball in play, he had a .251 average. That's astoundingly low. Also, his line drive % was better than average. I'm having trouble finding it, but I believe it was something like 22%. It basically shows that Soto wasn't really as bad as his slash line would indicate, he was pretty damn unlucky last year. This Fangraphs article goes into it a bit. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.p...w-on-soto/

Fangraphs is actually a very stat heavy site that you may want to look into. Not everyone is a fan of their site, but anyone would have to admit that it's interesting information.

[veryzer]

The most important stats in order are:

1. triples
2. unassisted put outs
3. plate appearances
4. passed balls
5. right/lefty matchups

You figure these 5 things out and you know everything you need to know about baseball.

[rok]

<!--quoteo(post=103374:date=Jun 28 2010, 11:02 AM:name=veryzer)-->QUOTE (veryzer @ Jun 28 2010, 11:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->The most important stats in order are:

1. triples
2. unassisted put outs
3. plate appearances
4. passed balls
5. right/lefty matchups

You figure these 5 things out and you know everything you need to know about baseball.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Don't forget Fire and Passion. Grit has to factor in as well.

[jstraw]

You know walks clog up the bases...and about the five tools, right? What's that stat about how a kid carries himself?

[jeffy]

WHIP is the best stat simply because the name has a nice ring to it. If a pitcher can work a good WHIP, then he's got to be a badass.

[veryzer]

But you have to say it with the 'h' first like hwip.

[jstraw]

hwip it good

[kbwsb]

I wish that there was an all-encompassing pitching stat, but there doesn't seem to be one (yet). ERA+ is good, but it's basically an extension of ERA, which is somewhat flawed in the first place.

Being an actuary, you'll probably find the statistical side of baseball pretty fascinating.
One thing that makes the stats hold some weight is that there are over 100 years of detailed stats to compare and contrast. This makes certain absolutes indisputable, such as this fact: the one offensive stat that correlates closest to "winning," is on-base percentage (OBP).
At least historically, this is true. Another absolute is that stats fluctuate a lot from year-to-year, which means that there will always be exceptions to any rule.