Farm System

[Auz]

A way of looking at it in a kind of NBA draft way is that they traded their #7 and #47 pick for a #14 & #23 pick.

[Auz]

Two guys flying under the radar who are absolutely dominating from Low A to High A:-

Luis Devers RHP - 11-3, 1.94 ERA, 93 IP, 96 K, 18 BB, including a 0.34 ERA for South Bend over 6 games

Porter Hodge RHP - 5-2, 2.67 ERA, 84 IP, 112 K, 43 BB, including a 1.17 ERA for South Bend over 3 games

Both don’t appear in top 30 Cubs prospects on most boards but look for them to race up the list soon enough.

[Butcher]

Good to see. Thanks for those updates, Auz.

[Auz]

Could be bad news for probably our number 1 pitching prospect in Jordan Wicks. Got tagged hard for 6 runs during the first inning, his velocity was waaaay down and was shaking his arm like he was hurt. Then the trainers came out and he went off injured.

He has been dominate this year, going from High A to AA. He has developed a very good knuckle-curve like pitch, his slider has become nasty and he still has the elite change up. I thought if he could get his velocity up from the low 90's he could very likely be a #1 pitcher guy.

Hoping for the best for him, but good chance we won't see him again this season.

[1060Ivy]

Is Wicks’ knuckle-curve the slurve pitch that seems to be making a comeback despite seemingly the pitch that torched Kerry Woods early career?

[Clapp]

Could be bad news for probably our number 1 pitching prospect in Jordan Wicks. Got tagged hard for 6 runs during the first inning, his velocity was waaaay down and was shaking his arm like he was hurt. Then the trainers came out and he went off injured.

He has been dominate this year, going from High A to AA. He has developed a very good knuckle-curve like pitch, his slider has become nasty and he still has the elite change up. I thought if he could get his velocity up from the low 90's he could very likely be a #1 pitcher guy.

Hoping for the best for him, but good chance we won't see him again this season.

Sounds like it's not serious, at least. While it's very interchangeable, he is (or at least was) my personal top pitching prospect in the system. There's no such thing as a high-floor pitching prospect, but he seems pretty close- and with great peripherals.

[funkster]

Did they ever say what happened?

[1060Ivy]

Keith Law has the Cubs ranked as 10th best MiLB system.

Law has Dodgers’ system ranked as 1, Guardians 2, and Orioles at 3.

Hell, the entire NL Central is ranked in top 13 with Pirates at 6, Brewers at 8, Cardinals at 9 and Reds at 13.

Here’s what Law writes about the Cubs system.

“To be honest, I thought they’d end up higher on the list, but perhaps I was a year early with those expectations, which were mostly built around the group of position players in A-ball and the Arizona Complex League this year, only one of whom, Kevin Alcantara, made my top 100. Most of the others are still interesting prospects with upside remaining but didn’t progress to the point where it would have pushed this system into the top 5. There’s less pitching here, although they bet big on upside with their first pick in 2022, Cade Horton.“

https://theathletic.com/4138444/2023/02/...prospects/

[rok]

Fuck Law. Seems to me he hasn’t paid much attention to our pitching prospects if only Horton gets a mention.


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[rok]

Cubs Top 20 Prospects: Keith Law

The Cubs’ system might be on the brink of a big breakout, with a cluster of position-player prospects who look like they’re a half-step away from the top 100 and, below that, a bunch of pitching prospects who have bigger questions but also that kind of upside. They won’t all pan out, but it’s nice to see the team’s 2021 trades, recent drafts, and some international free agents coalescing into a top system around the same time.

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 26)

Age: 21 (as of 7/1/2023) | 6-0 | 184 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 19 in 2020

Crow-Armstrong underwent shoulder surgery after just six pro games in 2021, his debut season after the Mets took him in the first round in the pandemic-shortened 2020 draft, and then found himself heading to Chicago as the return for Javier Báez at the 2021 deadline. Coming out of high school, he was a premium defensive center fielder with good feel to hit but not much potential for power, but he’s adjusted his swing and transformed his body so that he’s a double-digit homer guy who will put enough balls in the gaps to make him a potential star. He’s still a plus-plus defender in center and shows exceptional bat-to-ball skills, with just an 18 percent strikeout rate in Low A to start last year, and projects as a throwback sort of hitter who doesn’t walk or strike out a ton. He’s a plus runner who has exploited bad minor-league defenses to gain extra bases, helping him hit 10 triples in 101 games, tied for fourth in the minors. Crow-Armstrong will need to tighten up his approach to stay a 10-15 homer guy going forward, as his aggressiveness won’t let him get to pitches he can drive as he moves up the ladder, but he has that sort of power in him. Combined with his ability to hit for average and premium defense at a position up the middle, he has a very high floor that should let him be a regular for a long time, with the chance to make some All-Star teams if he gets to his power upside.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (Matt York / AP Photo)
2. Kevin Alcantara, OF (No. 29)

Age: 20 | 6-6 | 188 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

Alcantara was the main part of the return for Anthony Rizzo when the Cubs traded the fan favorite to the Bronx in 2021, and since then he’s emerged as one of the highest-upside prospects in the minors. Alcantara debuted in the GCL at age 16 back in 2019, when he was gangly and uncoordinated but also oozed projection. After the pandemic, he came back a different guy, adding probably 20 pounds of muscle and gaining coordination, hitting .345/.423/.588 in 34 games in the two complex leagues. In 2022, he moved to full-season ball at 19, hitting .273/.360/.451 for Myrtle Beach, historically a bad place for power hitters, finishing eighth in the Carolina League in slugging and 16th in OBP. (He hit .306/.368/.508 on the road, which would have led the league in slugging and put him 10th in OBP.) Alcantara has loose hands and a great swing with a strong first move toward the ball, after which he lets his legs do some of the work. He already recognizes spin well for his age and drives the ball to the opposite field, while he’s a plus runner who could stay in center even though he’s likely to add another 20-25 pounds of muscle. He carries some risk, as he’s 6-6 and has long levers, striking out 24.8 percent of the time last year. If he can hold that down, though, he could be a top-5 prospect in baseball in a year or two, a potential superstar with plus-plus power and speed in a solid or better center fielder.

3. Brennen Davis, OF (No. 50)

Age: 23| 6-4 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 62 in 2018

Davis’ year was a washout, as he had a stress reaction in his back, underwent surgery early in the year, and wasn’t quite the same when he returned ahead of schedule; he had to leave a scheduled stint in the AFL earlier than planned. When on the field, Davis hit .192/.322/.319 in 43 games in Triple A, although he did swing it better in the fall league, going 5-for-18 with a pair of homers and just one strikeout. He’s an excellent athlete who starred in basketball in high school, and while he’d always shown a solid eye at the plate, his power projection started to come through in 2021, with a good, balanced swing that lets him drive the ball to all fields. He’s played center but has lost some speed as he’s filled out, and might end up in right instead. It all depends on the health of his back, though, as stress reactions can be a harbinger of more chronic problems.

4. James Triantos, 3B

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 56 in 2021

Triantos can really hit, and his 2022 line undersells both his pure ability and his true performance, since Myrtle Beach is a terrible place to hit; he hit .289/.357/.400 on the road last year even with a slightly higher strikeout rate away from home. He controls the zone well, handles the barrel, shows good bat speed, and can drive the ball the other way. He’s not very good at third base but would be fine at second, where his high-contact/high-doubles upside would make him at least an average regular. He was in the group of players I’ve called the “just missed the just missed” list.

5. Hayden Wesneski, RHP

Age: 25 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 195 in 2019

Wesneski was a great get in exchange for Scott Effross — the Cubs dealt a talented reliever for someone who might have a chance to start. He has that sweeper slider that the Yankees love to teach their guys, with huge horizontal break, and sits 92-95 mph as a starter with four legitimate pitches. The four-seamer is very flat, and his changeup is a clear fourth pitch, so he may have trouble turning over a lineup with lefties two or three times. He holds his stuff and throws strikes; I’d absolutely try him as a starter for a while before moving him to the bullpen, where he could be extremely effective as a slider-first guy.

6. Kevin Made, SS

Age: 20| 5-10 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019

The Cubs have been very aggressive with Made, who hit .266/.354/.450 for Myrtle Beach last year as a 19-year-old and moved up to High A, where he hit just .162/.267/.246 in 37 games to end the season. He’s a true shortstop who puts the ball in play enough to give him a high floor as a utility infielder, and a swing overhaul has given him more ability to drive the ball. He’s a below-average runner and I know some scouts who question whether he’s a shortstop in the long term. I think he is, and the bat will make him a solid regular, with a chance for more if the approach holds up.

7. Miguel Amaya, C

Age: 24| 6-2 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2015

Amaya was a top 100 guy about 15 years ago, struggled in High A, missed 2020 due to the pandemic, and then played 23 games in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that ended his season. He bounced back pretty well last year, hitting .278/.379/.485 in a month in Double A as a DH, showing up with a much-improved body that’s leaner and stronger. He was a solid catch-and-throw guy before the surgery, and if the arm is fine, he could end up the Cubs’ catcher before the year is out as a 20-homer type with some patience and better defense than Willson Contreras offered.

8. Jordan Wicks, LHP

Age: 23| 6-3 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 21 in 2021

Wicks is a big changeup lefty with some power to the fastball, still in search of a consistent breaking pitch, and his fastball gets hit a little much for a pitch that averages 94ish mph. He’s a plus control guy who might get to plus command, but the lack of a clear average breaker and hittable fastball probably limits his ceiling.

9. Cristian Hernandez, SS

Age: 19| 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

Signed in January of 2021 for a $3 million bonus, Hernandez made his U.S. debut last summer and made less contact than expected, with some length to the swing and a 30.2 percent strikeout rate in the ACL as an 18-year-old. He’s a definite shortstop with strong hands and loose actions on both sides of the ball, with power already coming as he’s begun filling out, but he’ll need to shorten up his path to the ball to reach his ceiling as a 20-homer shortstop with good defense.

10. Cade Horton, RHP

Age: 21| 6-1 | 211 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 7 in 2022

The Cubs took a leap with their first pick in the 2022 draft, taking Horton with the seventh pick based primarily on his development of a new breaking ball with a month to go in the college season. Horton had an ERA of 7.94 after the regular (college) season ended, but a new grip on his slider made him the hottest pitcher in college for the month of June, as he struck out 49 guys in five starts against just 6 walks and posted a 2.61 ERA. It’s a true plus pitch and his fastball is up to 98 mph; he needs a third pitch and his track record is obviously quite limited. I can’t rule out him being the kind of mid-rotation starter the Cubs envision, especially since he’s a good athlete, but we just don’t have a lot of evidence here, and he has already had one Tommy John surgery.

11. Ben Brown, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-6 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 983 in 2017

Brown came over as the return for David Robertson, a heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever, as Brown is a four-pitch starter with a fastball that really plays. After the trade, the Cubs promoted him immediately to Double A, where he struck out 32 percent of batters but did give up some more hard contact. He uses a cutter rather than a changeup, but he didn’t show much of a platoon split last year. He might be better off de-emphasizing the slider and going fastball-curve-cutter to stay as a starter, with the size and strikes to do so as well.

12. Matt Mervis, 1B

Age: 25 | 6-4 | 225 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Right
Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2020

Mervis signed as an undrafted free agent in June of 2020 after an unremarkable career at Duke, where he’d mostly been a two-way player, but a real swing change after the 2021 season led to a breakout season that took him from High A up to Triple A, with a composite line of .309/.379/.606, 40 doubles, and 36 homers. He’s very strong and tries to pull most of what he sees, crushing mistakes but with just ordinary bat speed and mediocre spin recognition. He looks more like a platoon bat than a regular, but could have a decent career in that role because he can get on base and hit right-handers’ mistakes.

13. Jackson Ferris, LHP

Age: 19 | 6-4 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 47 in 2022

Ferris was the Cubs’ second-round pick in 2022 and was a first-round talent to a lot of scouts as a very athletic 6-4 lefty with arm strength, 93-94 mph already with a curve and change. His delivery isn’t great and the Cubs may have to try to clean it up a little so he can get to average command, but the size and stuff point toward a mid-rotation upside.

14. Daniel Palencia, RHP

Age: 23 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2020

Palencia is a short right-hander who can show three legit pitches, sitting 98-99 mph and topping out at 101 with a plus slider and feel for a changeup. Acquired in a 2021 trade that sent Andrew Chafin to Oakland, Palencia may be little, but he’s strong and repeats a short arm stroke well enough that he should stick as a starter, although he walked a few too many guys last year as a 22-year-old in High A (11 percent).

15. Owen Caissie, OF

Age: 20 | 6-4 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 45 in 2020

Caissie is a bat-first guy who can fake a corner outfield spot as long as he hits, with big power, and he recovered well after an 0-for-16 start to the 2022 season. The power is almost all against right-handed pitching and he might end up a platoon guy who plays left, first, and DH, or pinch-hits later in games.

16. Alex Canario, OF

Age: 23 | 6-1 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2016

One of two players acquired in the 2021 trade that sent Kris Bryant to the Giants, Canario hit 37 homers across three levels last year, along with 26 doubles and 23 steals in 26 attempts, and finished the season in Triple A. But he punches out way too much and doesn’t have the reads or routes to stay in center, leaving him as a low-OBP power bat in a corner, which can play for some teams if you’re not striking out excessively. He fractured his ankle and dislocated his shoulder on a freak play in winter ball and may miss up to half of the 2023 season.

17. Kohl Franklin, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-4 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 188 in 2018

Franklin was unbelievable in spring training … and then the regular season happened, where he could not pitch from the stretch at all, giving up a .339/.455/.617 line with runners on base. Honestly, just pitch from the windup all the time and let them steal whenever they want. It’s front-line stuff, really, and a good delivery, at least with the bases empty. I don’t know what to do with him at this point.

18. Porter Hodge, RHP

Age: 22| 6-4 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 402 in 2019

Hodge was the Cubs’ 13th-round pick in 2019 out of a Utah high school and was going nowhere fast until the Cubs switched him from a curveball to a high-spin “whirlybird” slider that gave him a real out pitch, while also cleaning up the lower half of his delivery, so now he’s got two real pitches and a delivery he can repeat. He’s still more likely to end up a reliever than a starter, but a year ago he looked like he might be a release candidate.

19. Moises Ballesteros, C

Age: 19 | 5-10 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021

Ballesteros is heavy, but he can hit and has juice, tying for seventh in the ACL in homers despite playing just 32 games there. He’s a below-average catcher as is, but he’s also too big for the position now, getting over 250 pounds over the summer, to the point where the body is getting in his way. You can be a little zaftig as a big-league catcher, but he has to get the weight down just so he can work on his defense.

20. Pablo Aliendo, C

Age: 22|6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018

Signed in May of 2018, Aliendo started hitting the ball harder last year, giving him a path to be a regular a couple of years down the line. He’s a great athlete with a plus arm, needing work on his receiving, while at the plate he can make a lot of contact but needs a better plan and approach.

Others of note

Right-hander Nazier Mule was shut down last spring as an amateur due to arm soreness but has hit 99 mph and is a crazy good athlete, with a chance for a plus slider already. The delivery’s a mess right now but he’s barely pitched, playing a position as well in high school and dealing with the short seasons of cold-weather baseball in New Jersey. It’s big upside with low probability … Infielder Pedro Ramirez can play all three skill positions and has a very advanced approach at the plate; he hit .359 in the DSL in 2021, .329 in the ACL last year, and finished up in Low A at 18. It’s more skills than tools, but he has a little pop and a little speed, while he should be able to play above-average defense at second … Outfielder Yohendrick Pinango has very good bat to ball skills with modest power but isn’t a good enough pure hitter, putting the ball on the ground too often, and he’s limited to left field … Right-hander DJ Herz walked 33 men in 31 2/3 innings after getting to Double A last year, and with no breaking ball, hitters sit on the fastball when it’s near the zone; he’s got to go to the bullpen and try to be a two-pitch guy there … Caleb Killian had a 2.06 ERA in Triple A when the Cubs called the right-hander up for the first of three spot starts; after the last of them, he went back to Triple A and posted a 5.37 ERA the rest of the way, walking 43 in 63 innings. He has major-league starter stuff, but tries to blow hitters away instead of relying on the command he has at least shown in the past. The other part of the Kris Bryant trade, Killian is basically an emergency call-up unless he reboots his plan of attack … Shortstop Ed Howard missed most of 2022 due to injury, but the Cubs’ first-round pick from 2020 has yet to hit anywhere in pro ball, with no power and a very raw approach that can’t get better without more reps … Their first-rounder in 2019, Ryan Jensen, went on the development list during the season for the Cubs to try to rework his delivery so he can throw more strikes; he can get up to 99 mph and has four pitches, but the command has lagged, even regressed, since college, and he has a ways to go there to be a starter … Right-hander Drew Gray missed the year after undergoing Tommy John in March; the Cubs’ third-rounder in 2021 threw just two pro innings that summer after he signed. He was a two-way guy in high school and has been up to 94 mph with a plus curve and average change … Slender righty Luis Devers throws a ton of strikes with an average fastball and plus changeup, maybe better than plus, holding lefties to a .230 OBP last year; he was 22 in A-ball and does need to prove he can limit hard contact at the upper levels … Outfielder Justin Nwogu was old for High A at 23, but he has power and speed that could make him a fourth outfielder, making enough contact so far but only at levels where he was older than most of the competition.

2023 impact

Amaya could get there quickly if he’s healthy; he was knocking on the door of the big leagues when he got hurt. Mervis is behind Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer right now, but Hosmer hasn’t hit in years and I am not sure he’s any better as a lefty bat off the bench/backup first baseman than Mervis would be.

The fallen

The Cubs’ second-round pick in 2019, Chase Strumpf punched out in exactly a third of his PA in Double A in 2022, his second year at the level, with fringy defense at second and third. He’ll be 25 this year and doesn’t project to even a bench role.

Sleeper

I see a lot of guys here who could take a step forward, including Amaya, who I assume will lose eligibility this year, so I’ll go with Made, whose bat and defensive value could make him a top-100 guy in a year and someone other teams will ask about a ton in trade.

(Photo of Kevin Alcantara: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)

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[Butcher]

Pretty solid. Another year of development for some of these guys and we might have something…

[1060Ivy]

Pretty solid. Another year of development for some of these guys and we might have something…

Another year and fans should have a better guess at: to what extent; and, potentially when we should expect an impact on MLB roster

[funkster]

Fulmer signs.

[funkster]

Cade Horton debuts for Myrtle Beach, 2ks in the first inning.


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[funkster]

Surprise move to Myrtle Beach for over slot high school pitcher Jackson Ferris. Three innings of work, 7ks.


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