Farm System

[rok]

Fangraphs just released their detailed top 23 (why this number I have no idea) Cubs prospects.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-23-pr...cago-cubs/


1 Eloy Jimenez, OF

2 Ian Happ, 2B

3 Oscar De La Cruz, RHP

4 Jeimer Candelario, 1B

5 Jose Albertos, RHP

6 Albert Almora, CF

7 Dylan Cease, RHP

8 Trevor Clifton, RHP

9 Mark Zagunis, OF

10 Jose Rosario, RHP

11 DJ Wilson, OF

12 Eddie Martinez, OF

13 Aramis Ademan, SS

14 Victor Caratini, C/1B

15 Felix Pena, RHP

16 Thomas Hatch, RHP

17 Isaac Paredes, INF

18 Chesny Young, INF

19 Donnie Dewees, LF

20 Jose Paulino, LHP

21 Bryan Hudson, LHP

22 Duane Underwood, RHP

23 Bailey Clark, RHP

[Kid]

Keith Law ranks the Cubs as the #18 farm system.  The summary he gives for the ranking is:

 

You can’t complain, Cubs fans, although some of you will. The front office used the fruits of years of strong drafts and trades to bolster the big league club via promotions and the deal for Aroldis Chapman. The result was a world championship.
 

Even with the trade of Gleyber Torres, the Cubs still have a very high-end hitting prospect in teenager Eloy Jimenez -- the guy who hit a ball in the Futures Game that bounced off the third story of the left field façade at Petco Park -- and some midlevel starting pitching depth coming, with one potential ace if the guy can just stay healthy.

 

Between the trades, promotions, and lack of a Day 1 draft pick in 2016, this is a thinner system than it was a year ago. It will probably stay down for a while now that the team is in full-throttle contention mode.

 

3 Cubs are in his top 100 prospects:

 

12. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 20 (11/27/96) | B/T: R/R

Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205

Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR

 

The Cubs’ 2013 international haul included both Jimenez and Gleyber Torres, both of whom look like potential superstars right now, though Torres is now in the Yankees’ system. If you saw the 2016 Futures Game, you saw what Jimenez can do -- he made one of the greatest catches I’ve ever seen any right fielder make, running all the way to the line and leaping the wall to catch a foul popup. He also hit a home run off the third level of the left-field façade at Petco Park, a distance few big leaguers have reached.

 

Jimenez made his full-season debut last year at age 19 and hit .329/.369/.523, leading the league in slugging by 50 points and finishing 12th in OBP (behind 11 older players), but he wasn’t among the top 50 in strikeouts. Listed at 6-foot-4 and probably bigger than that, Jimenez has a swing that plays shorter. He repeats it very well, getting his hands to the zone quickly from his loaded position with enough loft in his finish to hit line drives and hit for power. If you’re looking to nitpick, he could walk more, but he was the age of a college freshman and just destroyed a full-season league. It’s so nice to see those downtrodden Cubs have some good news on the horizon.

 

63. Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 22 (8/12/94) | B/T: B/R

Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205

Top level: Double-A | 2016: 47

 

Andrew Benintendi went one pick ahead of the Cubs’ first-round selection in 2015, which meant the Cubs ended up with Happ, who might not quite be the best prospect in baseball but is a valuable trade piece for a team with no room at (sic) the infield.

 

Happ is a switch-hitter, but his left-handed swing is much better than his right, with a cleaner, more consistent path and better loft in his finish. He might never provide more than fringe-average defense at second base, but Happ can offer positional flexibility, with experience in center, in right and at first or even as a “stand at shortstop for a few innings” option.

 

With the Cubs’ roster already overflowing with position players, Happ should get all of 2017 to work on improving his contact rate and repeating his right-handed swing. I think he ends up a multi-position guy or everyday second baseman with solid OBPs and 20 homers a year but probably enough strikeouts to keep his average down in the .260-270 range.

 

86. Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Age: 21 (12/28/95) | B/T: R/R

Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190

Top level: Short-season A-ball | 2016: 91

 

Cease has one of the biggest fastballs in pro baseball, possibly hitting 103 mph this summer and definitely hitting 101, but his arm is so quick that his body has a hard time catching up.

 

He was likely to be a top 10 pick in 2014, but he hurt his elbow in mid-March, didn’t pitch again before the draft and had Tommy John surgery after signing an over-slot deal with the Cubs after getting picked in the sixth round that year. He returned in 2015 for 24 innings, then was supposed to pitch a full summer in short-season in 2016 but missed time again with some minor soreness.

 

Cease has shown a plus breaking ball and would be fine pitching at 96-99 without trying to hit triple digits. He also has the athleticism and overall repertoire to start if he can stay healthy. This will be a big year for him in building stamina and learning to dial it down enough so that he can command the fastball better and, of course, stay off the DL. He has No. 1 starter stuff with the physique to match.

 

Here is his full write-up on the Cubs system:

 

If you’re a Cubs fan, do you even care anymore? Sure, the Cubs still have a decent system, with three top-100 guys and quite a few others who are interesting because they’re close to the majors or are far but have huge ceilings … but who are we kidding? Your team just won its first World Series since before my grandparents were born. Haven’t you had enough? I think you’re just being greedy, looking to see what future stars the Cubs might still have in the minors.
 

1. Eloy Jimenez, OF (Ranked No. 12)

2. Ian Happ, 2B (Ranked No. 63)

3. Dylan Cease, RHP (Ranked No. 86)

4. Albert Almora, OF

5. Oscar de la Cruz, RHP

6. Trevor Clifton, RHP

7. Jeimer Candelario, 3B

8. Eddy Julio Martinez, OF

9. Thomas Hatch, RHP

10. Jose Albertos, RHP

 

Non-top-100 guys

 

Albert Almora is a soft 50 for me, a borderline big league regular, thanks to his defense, or a great extra outfielder because he’ll put the ball in play a lot and can handle all three outfield spots. He has never walked much and isn’t going to have more than fringy power, which makes regular duty anywhere but center unlikely, but I think he’ll have a few years as someone’s everyday guy there, even if that isn't with the Cubs.

 

Oscar de la Cruz missed a large chunk of 2016 with elbow soreness but came back reasonably strong, throwing 93-95 mph. He shows a plus curveball and changeup, and he overpowered low minors hitters last year in 38 innings across three levels.

 

Trevor Clifton got an over-slot deal after getting picked in the 12th round in 2013, and he has made steady progress each year since. He throws 90-94 mph and a true curveball with some deception in his delivery that helps him get away with the lack of life on the fastball. He’s a high-probability fourth or fifth starter.

 

Jeimer Candelario has exceptional timing at the plate and puts the bat on the ball as well as anyone in the high minors. He makes a lot of hard contact without much present or projected power. The Cubs think he’s an above-average defender at third, but he hasn't been when I’ve seen him, and I get a broad range of opinions on his defense from scouts.

 

The Cubs signed Eddy Julio Martinez for $3 million as a free agent from Cuba in October 2015, but his pro debut last year was a little disappointing, as the balanced, all-fields approach he showed in workouts and still has in BP became a rotational, pull-oriented approach in games. He isn't that type of hitter. I don’t think there are 20 homers in here, but he has the bat speed and hand-eye to hit for a high average with lots of doubles.

 

Thomas Hatch was the team’s first pick in 2016, coming in the third round after they gave up two picks to sign Jason Heyward and John Lackey. He’s a power sinker guy, throwing 92-94 mph as a starter and 94-96 in instructs during shorter stints, with an above-average slider and average change. He slipped to the third round in part because he missed 2015 with a UCL sprain that never required surgery.

 

The Mexican-born Jose Albertos made one appearance in 2016, throwing four innings, after which the Cubs shut him down without further explanation. He was 94-97 mph with a plus changeup that day, and he threw strikes, and then suddenly he had a "sore forearm." But the story around Arizona is that he wasn’t really hurt. Needless to say, I’ve never laid eyes on him; all I know is that the scouts I talked to who saw him said he was electric.

 

Second baseman Carlos Sepulveda (11) is undersized but has great hands and has hit all kinds of pitching so far. He might not end up with much power, but he has a good enough eye at the plate that he could end up a high average/OBP regular at the position.

 

Victor Caratini (12) is a switch-hitter with a patient approach, but he hasn’t developed the power commensurate with his size. He has caught and played third and first base. He isn’t great at any of them due to his arm strength, but he could work as a multi-function bench bat.

 

D.J. (Darryl) Wilson (13) hurt an oblique muscle out of spring training and never got his bat going all summer. He’s a quick-twitch athlete with the speed to add value in center and on the bases, but first he has to hit.

 

Outfielder Mark Zagunis (14) has a strong history of getting on base and might end up a below-average regular in left on the strength of his OBP, but he has shown little power through his age-23 season and probably won’t be any more than that.

 

Donnie Dewees (15) has the speed to play center and steal 30-40 bases a year, but he has so little power that he probably isn't a regular and legitimately has a 20 arm that limits him to left. (I asked one scout how Dewees got four assists in 2016, and he said, “Because everybody runs on him!”)

 

Infielder Chesny Young (16) quintupled his career home run total in 2016 -- he came into the year with one -- and hit over .300 at each of his three stops last season. Players with this little power have it tough because pitchers have no reason to not just challenge them. He can play a handful of spots but fits best at second base.

 

Isaac Paredes (17) won’t stay at shortstop but can hit and might have some power in the end. The Mexican-born infielder won’t turn 18 until late February but had a very strong AZL season last year.

 

Over the past five years, the Cubs have paid a handful of other prep arms who just haven’t worked out so far.

 

Duane Underwood has had trouble staying healthy and hasn’t kept the big velocity he flashed when younger. Bryan Hudson had a big curveball in high school, lowered his arm slot before last season and walked as many guys as he struck out in the Northwest League (41 of each in 58 innings). Justin Steele and Carson Sands, both drafted and signed the same year as Cease, struggled in Low-A South Bend, and neither has come along as expected, though I’d give Steele a bit of a chance because he’s left-handed and missed a few bats.

 

2017 impact: Almora could end up with a lot of playing time in center this year, depending on how Jon Jay plays. Candelario is ready for a big league job, but there’s no room for him anywhere on the roster.

 

The fallen: He’s a big leaguer now and might even be a regular, but I can’t omit Dan Vogelbach entirely. The Cubs gave him seven figures to sign as the 68th overall pick in 2011, and while the kid can hit and has power, he never quite made sense as a born DH drafted by a National League team. The Cubs traded him to Seattle, where he should get a chance to play.

[funkster]

Anytime the BN guys write up summaries on these farm ranking systems, they seem so bummed out.  We won the WS guys.

[Butcher]

Anytime the BN guys write up summaries on these farm ranking systems, they seem so bummed out.  We won the WS guys.

 

[1060Ivy]

Most of the BN guys began writing for blogs as the Cubs focused on the minor league system development and system became stacked with Top 100 prospects skewing their baseline expectations.

[rok]

Luke in particular is an insufferable prospect whore.

[funkster]

I'm going to give it another ten years before I start caring about how top heavy our farm system is again.

[Butcher]

I'm going to give it another ten years before I start caring about how top heavy our farm system is again.

 

Bingo. I'm sure the FO will do their best to keep the pipeline strong, but right now the purpose of our minor league system is to provide trade fodder to strengthen the ML team.

 

And we just won the fucking world series. Why is anyone wringing their hands about our minors? Some people will never be satisfied.

[chshdsck]

Forgot who I was listening to on the radio, but they described Happ has a younger version of Zobrist....but without the glove.

 

Hopefully Happ can work on improve that part of this game this season.

[funkster]

When you have a lack of high picks, it gets harder to end up with a ton of blue chip prospects.  Seems fairly obvious.

[bz]

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="funkster" data-cid="306689" data-time="1486495536">
I'm going to give it another ten years before I start caring about how top heavy our farm system is again.

Bingo. I'm sure the FO will do their best to keep the pipeline strong, but right now the purpose of our minor league system is to promvide trade fodder to strengthen the ML team.

 

And we just won the fucking world series. Why is anyone wringing their hands about our minors? Some people will never be satisfied.</blockquote>


Hey Butcher...we just won the freakin World Series ?

 

[Butcher]

 

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Butcher" data-cid="306690" data-time="1486495780">
 

<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="funkster" data-cid="306689" data-time="1486495536">
I'm going to give it another ten years before I start caring about how top heavy our farm system is again.

Bingo. I'm sure the FO will do their best to keep the pipeline strong, but right now the purpose of our minor league system is to promvide trade fodder to strengthen the ML team.

 

And we just won the fucking world series. Why is anyone wringing their hands about our minors? Some people will never be satisfied.</blockquote>


Hey Butcher...we just won the freakin World Series

 
 


</blockquote>
 

FUCK YEAH, BZ!

[rok]

After 2 years of rehab and TLC, Cubs to unleash 100-mph Cease


MESA, Ariz. A year ago, Cubs scouting and player development boss Jason McLeod called him a lottery ticket.


Seven weeks ago, McLeod called him unlike anyone that weve had in our system since weve been here.


Right-hander Dylan Cease is almost a mythical creature when it comes to the Cubs farm system.


The Cubs have yet to draft and develop a big-league starting pitcher since Theo Epsteins crew took over more than five years ago much less a frontline-quality power pitcher like Cease appears to be.


But that might be about to change as Cease prepares his 100-mph fastball and power curve for their first full-season assignment in the Cubs system.


Hell likely open at Class A South Bend after two years of rehab work since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a high school senior.


Hes absolutely one of the more exciting prospects that we have in our organization, McLeod said during the Cubs Convention in January, which is so fun to say in Year 5 that were talking about a pitcher as one of the most exciting players in our organization.


Cease, 21, a broad-shouldered 6-2 kid with a mature-for-his-age demeanor, is quick to say the Cubs have more pitching talent in the system than many might believe.


But he also knows what evaluators are saying about him, whether its the media, the various prospect rankings or McLeod. Hes the first pitcher in the organization the last five years whos talked about with the same kind of reverence as the Kris Bryants and Kyle Schwarbers from those vaunted hitting classes.


I feel really excited and grateful that people think I could turn into that, he said. Thats what Im working for. I want to give them everything Ive got.


It just makes me want to do the extra little stuff to get there. That would be incredible, a dream come true.


Cease, a first-round talent drafted in the sixth round in 2014 because of the surgery, has a 2.36 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 68 professional innings.


He had a 2.22 ERA with 66 strikeouts in 44 innings at short-season Class A Eugene last season.


Hes built up now, farm director Jaron Madison said, adding that with Ceases good health this spring, you take the leash off.


Cease said he doesnt look too far ahead and doesnt care where he starts or finishes this season within the organization.


I would love to make every one of my starts; that would be a big goal of mine, he said of what 20 or so starts and reaching 100 innings would mean. I would like to be locked in and focused and intense for every one of my starts, too.


If I really want to make it to the next level, I cant just rely on throwing hard. Ive got to be a complete pitcher.


It wouldnt take much for Cease to notice what his development might mean to a championship team in the third year of a contending window.


The Cactus League debuts the last two days by Jake Arrieta and John Lackey were reminders that both are free agents next fall. And a team that won the World Series last year without a pitcher drafted and developed by the organization will probably do it the same way if it repeats.


The Cubs have built a successful staff from the outside, and in that continuing process, theyre still looking to add more young, controllable quality starters.


What would adding a certain kid with a golden, surgically repaired arm mean? And when could that happen?


All that stuff is kind of background noise and out of my control, Cease said. Im more focused on the little things I have to do every day to get up there and write my own story and be a part of something.


Follow me on Twitter @GDubCub.

Email: gwittenmyer@suntimes.com

[jstraw]

Boing!

[mrfelina]

Me got a stiffy, too.