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In order of likely to be a bust to least likely, based on little more than my opinion and what I've read:
1. Soler
2. Baez
3. Alcantara
4. Lake (if I had to guess, he winds up being a decent utility guy, which wouldn't be a bust)
5. Vogelbach (I think he'll be a decent 1B/DH for an AL team)
6. Bryant
7. Almora (maybe higher...seems like he has a hard time staying on the field)
8. Castro
9. Castillo
10. Rizzo
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Quote:
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="1060Ivy" data-cid="208186" data-time="1376585865">
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="rok" data-cid="208178" data-time="1376578586">
This FO already has a track record in drafting and player development from Boston and SD. Are you denying that? It's not as though they were dropped in from Pluto.
Never denied FO's record of finding and developing prospects but doubt that anyone in FO believes that in 2 years Cubs prospects will field 8 of 9 positions for a competitive Cubs team.
As I stated if 2 of those spots are filled by prospects it should be considered a great success.</blockquote>
Quote:This FO already has a track record in drafting and player development from Boston and SD. Are you denying that? It's not as though they were dropped in from Pluto.
Never denied FO's record of finding and developing prospects but doubt that anyone in FO believes that in 2 years Cubs prospects will field 8 of 9 positions for a competitive Cubs team.
As I stated if 2 of those spots are filled by prospects it should be considered a great success.
Regarding hyping of prospects, we have more articles in papers regarding prospects than there were ever about previous prospects. May be due to explosion of content on Internet but how often do guys on this site now check on prospects or minor league games like they used to individual players on Cubs roster or Cub box scores. Much of this I would consider to be driven by organization so falls into the hype category for me
</blockquote>
Of course they don't believe that. I don't believe that. Nobody believes that...because it's silly. If you asked them if they believed that, they'd tell you they don't believe that.
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That's why they're adding tons and tons of talent both through the draft and international signings. The more volume you add, the higher probability for success. And who really believes that this team will be 100% homegrown anyway? These prospects will be used as much as trade currency as they will be to form the core of the 25 man roster. That's how good organizations stay good year in and year out, not by simply chasing the top FAs every offseason.
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Baez with a double, a HR, a SB and a BB. Baez's walk rates look like this:
2012
Peoria: 3.8%
Daytona: 5.8%
2013
Daytona: 6.2%
Tennessee: 8.4%
Oh and Maples: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 9/2 K/BB, HBP
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I don't ever remember the Cubs ever having this many positional prospects in our farm system. To me Hendry and co's philosophy during the 00's was to draft as many pitchers as possible and trade them off.
To me I think Bryant has the best chance at success followed by Almora who I see as a Ellisbury kind of guy - high average, middle power, good glove. Baez I see as being a low average but high power kind of player and 3rd best chance at success.
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Quote:Baez with a double, a HR, a SB and a BB. Baez's walk rates look like this:
2012
Peoria: 3.8%
Daytona: 5.8%
2013
Daytona: 6.2%
Tennessee: 8.4%
Oh and Maples: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 9/2 K/BB, HBP
I pegged Baez as a dead pull hitter. However, looking at his hitting chart, looks like sprays the ball all over the field
http://mlbfarm.com/player.php?player_id=595879
I just want to drink beer and play atari
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To be a fly in the ointment I thought I'd point out that Baez has 40 errors this season. I'm guessing he's not long for SS, which puts him where?
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That all depends on Olt and Bryant. If one of them can handle 3rd then Baez moves to 2B and Alcantara gets traded. If Olt fades off and Bryant gets too big for 3B and has to be moved to the LF then Baez goes to 3B and Valbuena/Barney/Alcantara fight it out for 2B. (This is all internal options of course.)
"It's not the dress that makes you look fat, it's the fat that makes you look fat." - Al Bundy
"Ow" - Dylan Bundy
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I just want to drink beer and play atari
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How much do errors really matter in the minors?
Ozzie Smith made 23 errors in 65 games at low A before getting recalled; Cal Ripken had a .930-.940 fielding pct at AA at SS; Derek Jeter made 57 errors at A ball as a 19-year-old.
Is Baez's error total really an indicator that he can't hack it at SS?
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Quote:How much do errors really matter in the minors?
Ozzie Smith made 23 errors in 65 games at low A before getting recalled; Cal Ripken had a .930-.940 fielding pct at AA at SS; Derek Jeter made 57 errors at A ball as a 19-year-old.
Is Baez's error total really an indicator that he can't hack it at SS?
I don't have evidence. But my feeling is that at a minimum it's an indication he won't be a very good SS.
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I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe he's gotten much better in the 2nd half. I know he's made some flashy plays out there the last few weeks.
Loving the lower level pitching prospects. Skulina/Maples/spellcheck II are pretty exciting.
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Since he moved up to AA, June 28th, he's played in 41 games and had 10 errors. So that's incredibly better.
I got nothin'.
Andy
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Definitely an improvement, but man, that would still be on average 40 errors over a full season. I suppose Castro isn't much better though.
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I've been bouncing around the idea of an infield of Alcantara at 2nd, Baez at SS, and Bryant/Villanueva/Olt at 3rd. Maybe trade Castro? Starting to think Olt is toast though.
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